कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : NCDEX पर दूसरे दिन भारी गिरावट का रुख, कारोबारियों में डर का माहौल

कमोडिटी एक्सचेंज NCDEX पर मंगलवार को ज्यादातर कमोडिटीज में भारी गिरावट के बाद बुधवार को भी अधिकतर कमोडिटीज में जबरदस्त बिकवाली देखी जा रही है, जिस वजह से कारोबारियों में डर का माहौल बना हुआ है, कारोबारी जानना चाहते हैं कि अचानक सभी कमोडिटीज में आई गिरावट के पीछे की वजह क्या है, कहीं वायदा कारोबार को लेकर सरकार या एक्सचेंज की तरफ से कोई नियम तो जारी नहीं हुआ?

कारोबारियों की इस आशंका को देखते हुए ही मंगलवार को ही मार्केट टाइम्स ने कमोडिटी एक्सचेंज NCDEX के अधिकारियों से बात की थी, अधिकारियों ने साफ तौर पर कहा था कि एक्सचेंज की तरफ से किसी तरह का नियम जारी नहीं हुआ है और सरकार या सेबी की तरफ से ही किसी तरह के नियम के जारी होने की जानकारी नहीं है।

बुधवार सुबह के करोबार में NCDEX पर धनिया में 3 फीसदी, हल्दी में 2 फीसदी, जीरा, सोयाबीन, कपासखल और कैस्टरसीड में करीब एक फीसदी की गिरावट देखने को मिली है, इनके अलावा अन्य कमोडिटीज में भी लाल निशान के साथ कारोबार हो रहा है। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एनर्जी : कच्चा तेल 6 महीने क निचले स्तर से रिकवर, API स्टॉक आंकड़ों से सपोर्ट

मंगलवार को कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में आई एकतरफा गिरावट के बाद निचले स्तर पर खरीदारी से आज बुधवार को विदेशी बाजार में इसकी कीमतों में कुछ रिकवरी देखी जा रही है, नायमेक्स पर कच्चे तेल का भाव करीब एक फीसदी की बढ़ोतरी के साथ 48 डॉलर प्रति बैरल के ऊपर कारोबार कर रहा है, विदेशी बाजार में आई इस रिकवरी का असर घरेलू बाजार पर भी दिख सकता है, बीते कारोबारी सत्र के दौरान कमोडिटी एक्सचेंज MCX पर कच्चा तेल 67 रुपये की भारी गिरावट के साथ 3,075 रुपये प्रति बैरल के स्तर पर बंद हुआ है।

मंगलवार को विदेशी बाजार में कच्चे तेल की कीमतों में भारी गिरावट देखने को मिली है, नायमेक्स पर कच्चे तेल का भाव घटकर 47.35 डॉलर प्रति बैरल के निचले स्तर तक गया जो करीब 6 महीने में सबसे कम भाव है। कच्चे तेल की कीमतों को ऊपर उठाने के लिए OPEC संगठन ने जब फैसला किया था कि वह पहली जनवरी से उत्पादन में कटौती करेगा तो अंतरराष्ट्रीय बाजार में कच्चे तेल का भाव लगभग इसी स्तर के करीब था। यानि उत्पादन कटौती के फैसले से कच्चे तेल के भाव में ज्यादा उठाव नहीं आया है।

आज बाजार में जो रिकवरी आई है उसके पीछे अमेरिकन पेट्रोलियम इंस्टिट्यूट यानि API की ओर से जारी हुए स्टॉक के आंकड़ों को वजह माना जा रहा है, API की रिपोर्ट के मुताबिक पिछले हफ्ते अमेरिका में कच्चे तेल के स्टॉक में करीब 42 लाख बैरल की कमी आई है, स्टॉक मे कमी से बाजार को कुछ सहारा मिला है। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : चीनी: उत्तर प्रदेश में 28% बढ़ा उत्पादन, बना नया रिकॉर्ड

इस साल बने देश के सबसे बड़े चीनी उत्पादक राज्य उत्तर प्रदेश में चीनी के उतपादन में जोरदार उछाल देखा गया है। चीनी इंडस्ट्री के सूत्रों से मिली जानकारी के मुताबिक मौजूदा चीनी सीजन 2016-17 में पहली मई तक उत्तर प्रदेश में चीनी उत्पादन पिछले साल के मुकाबले करीब 28 फीसदी अधिक दर्ज किया गया है। मिली जानकारी के मुताबिक पहली मई तक राज्य में करीब 87 लाख टन चीनी का उत्पादन हो गया है जबकि चीनी वर्ष 2015-16 में इस दौरान सिर्फ 68 लाख टन का उत्पादन हो पाया था।

इस साल उत्तर प्रदेश में पूरे सीजन के दौरान करीब 116 चीनी मिलों ने चीनी उतपादन का काम शुरू किया था लेकिन अब क्योंकि सीजन खत्म होने की तरफ आगे बढ़ रहा है ऐसे में अब सिर्फ 14 मिलों में ही उत्पादन हो रहा है। इंडस्ट्री सूत्रों के मुताबिक आगे चलकर राज्य में और एक लाख टन चीनी का उत्पादन हो सकता है, यानि कुल उत्पादन 88 लाख टन तक पहुंच सकता है जो अबतक का राज्य में सबसे अधिक उत्पादन होगा, इससे पहले राज्य में करीब 10 साल पहले 84.7 लाख टन चीनी का उत्पादन हुआ था जो अबतक का रिकॉर्ड है। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 3rd May 2017

Nifty 9,313/Sensex 29,921 / Bank Nifty 22,341

24 Advances / 27 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian markets settle with paltry gain*

After trading on a feeble note for most part of the session, Indian equity indices managed to negotiate a close in the green terrain, breaking the two-session downtrend, as investors showed renewed buying interests in Realty, Consumer Durables and Oil & Gas counters. Sentiments remained muted with the UN report indicating that India is expected to clock 7.1% growth this year before edging up to 7.5% in 2018, and warned that the country faces heightened risks related to the concentration of bad loans in the public sector banks. Inflation is projected to reach 5.3% to 5.5% in 2017 and 2018. The report also warned that the rise in protectionism put economic growth in Asia Pacific at risk and urged countries in the region to improve governance and fiscal management to bolster development. Further, investors' confidence improved on the report that Factory output increased for the fourth straight month in April 2017. The Nikkei India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) - compiled by Nikkei and research firm Markit - remained at 52.5 in April, same as that recorded in March. A reading above 50 on the index denotes expansion, while that less than 50 indicates contraction. Stronger growth in new orders and improving demand conditions were some of the key factors behind the expansion in manufacturing activity in April. Furthermore, some support also came with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's assertion that India was never a more promising investment destination than it is today. He said that today, Indian economy is the fastest growing major economy in the world. In addition to maintaining this pace, our focus is to remove the inefficiencies from the system. Meanwhile, closing the fiscal year on a high, the index of eight core industries rose by 5% in March, a three-month high, led by double-digit growth in steel and coal sectors. The core industries grew by a mere 1% in February this year, and 9.3% in March 2016.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Tuesday, helped by rising optimism on the technology industry and easing concerns over North Korea, while the dollar edged up to one-month high versus the yen. Further, the US Federal Reserve begins its two-day monetary policy meeting later today, with many expecting the US central bank to leave interest rates unchanged. However, weaker than expected China manufacturing data appeared to have a muted impact. China's factory sector lost momentum in April, with growth slowing to its weakest pace in seven months as domestic and export demand faltered and commodity prices fell. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.3 in April, missing economist forecasts' of 51.0 and a significant decline from March's 51.2. Meanwhile, Wall Street climbed on Monday, boosted by gains in Apple and other big tech stocks that more than offset weak economic data and pushed the Nasdaq Composite to another record high. Investors bought stocks and sold bonds and gold after Congress agreed to a deal that will keep the government operating for the rest of the fiscal year, averting a shutdown, so they bought riskier stocks and sold government bonds, gold, and high-dividend stocks.

Back home, after getting a strong start, the local benchmarks slipped into red in late morning session on profit booking in frontline blue-chip stocks ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting this week, a U.S. jobs report on Friday and the final round of the French presidential election on Sunday. The frontline indices kept losing steam thereafter and even drifted to the lowest point in the session in mid-morning trades. But the indices managed to pare most of the losses in late afternoon trades on the report that Uttar Pradesh cabinet approved the GST Bill ahead of introducing it in the forthcoming assembly session so that the new tax regime could be rolled out from July 1, 2017. In another cabinet decision, all manual tendering will be done away with in Uttar Pradesh within the next three months and it would be replaced by e-tendering and e-procurement process. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, added single digit gains to settle above the crucial 9,300 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index or Sensex gained around three points and ended below the psychological 30,000 mark. Moreover, broader markets showed some resilience by outclassing their larger peers by a big margin. On the BSE sectorial space, Realty counter remained the top gainer in the space with over two percent gains followed by the high beta- Consumer Durables index, which ended with over a percent gains. On the other hand, the Telecom index slipped by over a percent followed by Healthcare, Metal and Capital Goods counters, which too settled with over half a percent losses.

FII’s Activity 02-May-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4607.38 crore against gross selling of Rs 5720.91 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 1113.53 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 139.39 crore with gross sales of Rs 421.96 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 282.57 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9240 and resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 9240 only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 21800 and resistance at 22500

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22500. Close above 22500 will see upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 21800 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Results Today

Dewan Housing Finance

 Corporation Limited

ICICI Bank Limited

Ajanta Pharma Limited

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Agri Commodity Update (02-May-2017)

  Fundamental Aspect

Refined soy oil futures recovered last week after steeply fall in the previous day as government increase the tariff value for crude soy oil for the first half of May. Government base import price of crude soy oil was increased by $10 to $780 per tonnes. There is still weak trend in the International markets. Moreover, good domestic supplies and steady demand is pressurizing prices. As per SEA data, soy oil imports for March down more than 28.5% Y/Y to 2.3 lakh tonnes and down 8.7 lakh tonnes (m/m).

Jeera futures closed higher last week on anticipation of better export scenarios in coming months. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes. The arrivals have been lower during April compared to March. As per the traders source, about 30,901 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 43,831 in previous month. On the export front, country the exports increase by 32.7% to 1, 01,188 tonnes in first 10 month of marketing year 2016/17 reported by Dept. of commerce, GOI.

 NCDEX Turmeric prices continue to decline last week as fresh selling is observed due to steady demand despite lower arrivals in the physical market. As per the trader source, turmeric arrivals in the country lower in April to 92,964 tonnes compared to 1, 35,887 tonnes during March. On the export front, country exported about 89,704 tonnes during April-Jan period, up by 28.3% compared to last year exports of 69,870 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower.

Sugar Futures fell last week due to higher availability of sugar in the domestic market as government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders. As per USDA, India’s sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2017/18 (Oct-Sept) is expected to increase by 18% to 25.8 mt. Uttar Pradesh will be the largest producer of sugar in India, followed by Maharashtra. As per trade sources, Maharashtra's sugarcane acreage in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) is likely to rise 29% on year to 900,000 ha.

Technical Aspect

Soybean

Support at 2900 and Resistance at 2980

If unable to breach its support level of 2900 the we can expect upside move till 2980.

Weekly close above 2980 will take it to 3040---3070 and then to 3130+ mark in days to come.

Fresh sell can be initiate only below 2900.

Soyref

Support at 605 and Resistance 615

Looks sideways and weekly close below 605 we can expect downside move till 596---592 and then 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 615

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 615 mark

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya 

We still maintained our selling view below 6900….for 6380—6100--5850 

Support at 6420 and Resistance at 6750.

Break and close below 6420 will see sharp downside move till 6150---6000 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 6750 again.

Fresh buying can be seen only above 6750 mark.

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 19000 and Resistance at 19700

Looks positive and weekly close above 19700 will see a sharp upside towards 20100---20450 else it could touch its support level of 19000.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 19000 mark.

Trend- Sideways Higher 

RM Seed 

Support at 3720 and Resistance is 3790

Momentum looks sideways and if prices gives daily close below 3720 will extend it to 3665---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3790 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3790 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC

Crucial Support is 5730 and Resistance is 6150 

Looks weak and weekly close below 5730 fresh round of selling can be seen towards 5540 ---5320 mark else could touch its resistance level of 6150 again.

Fresh buying can be seen only above 6150

Cocudakl

Support seen at 1900 while resistance can be defined as 1985

Looks rebound and weekly close above 1985 could touch 2040 and then 2110 mark in days to come else it may test its support level of 1900 again

Fresh selling can be seen only below 1900.

Trend- Sideways 

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 930 and resistance at 965

Weekly close below 930 further weakness can be seen till 905---885 mark else could test its resistance level of 965 again.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Support at 488 and Resistance at 498---505.

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 498--505. More and more power will see only close above 405 towards 511--- 514 mark else it could test its support again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 488 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

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Currency Report 02 - May - 2017

Rupee extends weakness for second straight session

Indian rupee extended its weakness for the second consecutive day on Friday, on increased month-end demand for the American currency from importers. Sentiments remained down-beat with the report that private equity investments in the first quarter of this year fell to nearly 3-year low of $2.1 billion in the absence of big ticket deals. According to the report, there was a decline both in terms of value as well as volume of deals and PE investment values dropped to the lowest level in the last 11 quarters. Moreover, the US dollar’s gains against some other currencies overseas and a weak domestic equity market put pressure on the rupee. On the global front, Sterling climbed to its highest against the dollar since late September on Friday, brushing off data showing a sharp slowdown in UK economic growth as traders closed off heavy bets against the pound ahead of a long Bank Holiday weekend.

USDINR (May)

Support at 64.20 and Resistance at 64.65---64.90

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 64.65---64.90 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 64.20 mark

GBP-INR (May)

Support at 83.00 and Resistance at 83.30

If unable to breach its support level of 83.00 then it can touch its resistance level of 83.30 and then to 83.55---83.70 again. Further upside rally will see only close above 83.70 mark

Looks weak only below 83.00 mark.

EURINR (May)

Support at 70.30 and Resistance 70.55.

Close below 70.30 will take it to 70.00—69.80 mark else could touch its resistance level of 70.55 mark again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 70.55 mark

JPYINR

Support at 57.40 and resistance 57.90

Looks weak and could test its support level of 57.40. Close below 57.40 will take to 56.80---56.50 mark.

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 57.90 mark.

Trade with levels only.

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