Fundamental Aspect
Refined soy oil futures recovered last week after steeply fall in the previous day as government increase the tariff value for crude soy oil for the first half of May. Government base import price of crude soy oil was increased by $10 to $780 per tonnes. There is still weak trend in the International markets. Moreover, good domestic supplies and steady demand is pressurizing prices. As per SEA data, soy oil imports for March down more than 28.5% Y/Y to 2.3 lakh tonnes and down 8.7 lakh tonnes (m/m).
Jeera futures closed higher last week on anticipation of better export scenarios in coming months. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes. The arrivals have been lower during April compared to March. As per the traders source, about 30,901 tonnes of jeera arrived compared to 43,831 in previous month. On the export front, country the exports increase by 32.7% to 1, 01,188 tonnes in first 10 month of marketing year 2016/17 reported by Dept. of commerce, GOI.
NCDEX Turmeric prices continue to decline last week as fresh selling is observed due to steady demand despite lower arrivals in the physical market. As per the trader source, turmeric arrivals in the country lower in April to 92,964 tonnes compared to 1, 35,887 tonnes during March. On the export front, country exported about 89,704 tonnes during April-Jan period, up by 28.3% compared to last year exports of 69,870 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are lower.
Sugar Futures fell last week due to higher availability of sugar in the domestic market as government extends curbs on holding of sugar stocks by six months for the sugar dealers and traders. As per USDA, India’s sugar production in marketing year (MY) 2017/18 (Oct-Sept) is expected to increase by 18% to 25.8 mt. Uttar Pradesh will be the largest producer of sugar in India, followed by Maharashtra. As per trade sources, Maharashtra's sugarcane acreage in 2017-18 (Jul-Jun) is likely to rise 29% on year to 900,000 ha.
Technical Aspect
Soybean
Support at 2900 and Resistance at 2980
If unable to breach its support level of 2900 the we can expect upside move till 2980.
Weekly close above 2980 will take it to 3040---3070 and then to 3130+ mark in days to come.
Fresh sell can be initiate only below 2900.
Soyref
Support at 605 and Resistance 615
Looks sideways and weekly close below 605 we can expect downside move till 596---592 and then 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 615
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 615 mark
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya
We still maintained our selling view below 6900….for 6380—6100--5850
Support at 6420 and Resistance at 6750.
Break and close below 6420 will see sharp downside move till 6150---6000 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 6750 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 6750 mark.
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 19000 and Resistance at 19700
Looks positive and weekly close above 19700 will see a sharp upside towards 20100---20450 else it could touch its support level of 19000.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 19000 mark.
Trend- Sideways Higher
RM Seed
Support at 3720 and Resistance is 3790
Momentum looks sideways and if prices gives daily close below 3720 will extend it to 3665---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3790 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3790 mark
Trade in a range with levels only
TMC
Crucial Support is 5730 and Resistance is 6150
Looks weak and weekly close below 5730 fresh round of selling can be seen towards 5540 ---5320 mark else could touch its resistance level of 6150 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 6150
Cocudakl
Support seen at 1900 while resistance can be defined as 1985
Looks rebound and weekly close above 1985 could touch 2040 and then 2110 mark in days to come else it may test its support level of 1900 again
Fresh selling can be seen only below 1900.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 930 and resistance at 965
Weekly close below 930 further weakness can be seen till 905---885 mark else could test its resistance level of 965 again.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Support at 488 and Resistance at 498---505.
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 498--505. More and more power will see only close above 405 towards 511--- 514 mark else it could test its support again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 488 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
