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Thursday, April 13, 2017

कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : खाद्य तेल आयात 7% लुढ़का, पाम ऑयल सहित सोयाबीन और सूरजमुखी ऑयल इंपोर्ट में गिरावट






देश में तिलहन के बंपर उत्पादन की वजह से इस साल खाद्य तेल आयात में भारी गिरावट देखी जा रही है, तेल और तिलहन इंडस्ट्री के संगठन सॉल्वेंट एक्सट्रैक्टर्स एसोसिएशन ऑफ इंडिया यानि SEA की तरफ से जारी किए गए आंकड़ों के मुताबिक मार्च के दौरान वनस्पति तेल के आयात में करीब 7 फीसदी की गिरावट दर्ज की गई है, SEA के मुताबिक फरवरी के मुकाबले मार्च में सरसों ऑयल को छोड़ ज्यादातर खाद्य तेल यानि पाम ऑयल, सोयाबीन ऑयल और सूरजमुखी आयल का इंपोर्ट घटा है।


SEA के मुताबिक मार्च के दौरान देश में कुल 11,09,825 टन वनस्पति तेल का आयात हुआ है जिसमें 10,93,376 टन खाद्य तेल है और बाकी 16,449 टन गैर खाद्य। पिछले साल मार्च के दौरान देश में कुल 11,90,515 टन वनस्पति तेल का आयात हुआ था।

SEA के मुताबिक नवंबर से शुरू हुए आयल वर्ष 2016-17 के पहले 5 महीने यानि नवंबर से मार्च के दौरान देश में कुल 56,65,875 टन वनस्पति तेल का आयात हुआ है जबकि ऑयल वर्ष 2015-16 में इस दौरान 63,19,822 टन का आयात हुआ था।

फरवरी के मुकाबले मार्च में सभी वनस्पति तेलों के आयात में गिरावट आई है, मार्च में कुल 6,80,065 टन पाम ऑयल, 2,29,853 टन सोयाबीन ऑयल और 1,77,368 टन सूरजमुखी ऑयल का इंपोर्ट हुआ है। फरवरी के दौरान देश में 7,36,207 टन पाम ऑयल, 2,51,740 टन सोयाबीन ऑयल और 2,09,422 टन सूरजमुखी तेल का इंपोर्ट दर्ज किया गया था। 





Source: MarketTimesTv










More will update soon!!

कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : गेहूं: सरकारी खरीद 39 लाख टन के करीब, मध्य प्रदेश से 21 और हरियाणा से 15 लाख टन की खरीदारी







देशभर में गेहूं की कटाई का सीजन अपने चरम पर है और सरकारी एजेंसियों की तरफ से कई राज्यों में गेहूं की खरीद में बढ़ोतरी देखने को मिल रही है, मार्केट टाइम्स को FCI सूत्रों से मिली जानकारी के मुताबिक 12 अप्रैल तक देशभर में सरकारी एजेंसियों ने किसानों से करीब 39 लाख टन गेहूं की खरीद कर ली है और खरीद पिछले साल के मुकाबले करीब 7 फीसदी ज्याद है, पिछले साल इस दौरान देशभर में करीब 36 लाख टन गेहूं की खरीद हो पायी थी।


  अबतक हुई कुल खरीद में सबसे ज्यादा मध्य प्रदेश से करीब 21 लाख टन, हरियाणा से करीब 14 लाख टन, पंजाब में करीब 2.5 लाख टन, राजस्थान करीब 50,000 टन और उत्तर प्रदेश से करीब 12,000 टन गेहूं की खरीदारी की गई है।


केंद्र सरकार ने इस साल पूरे देश में कुल मिलाकर 330 लाख टन गेहूं खरीद का लक्ष्य निर्धारित किया हुआ है और पिछले साल देश में सिर्फ 230 लाख टन गेहूं की खरीद हो पायी थी। 





Source: MarketTimesTv















More will update soon!!


Technical Pick - IOC










Technical Pick - IOC










IOC is giving a breakout on daily chart and having breakout point at 416.  Above 416 we may see a rally. Weekly close above 416 will see sharp upside rally till 425 and then to 435+ mark in days to come.
 For positional trade, stop loss seeing at 405. It will get positional weak only below 405 mark which is unlikely to breach in near terms.





Trading Recommendation



Buy IOC Future above 416 on closing basis with Stop loss of 405 on closing basis

















More will update soon!!

कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : हरियाणा में गेहूं की खरीद बढ़ी








सरकार की पांच खरीद एजेंसियों और व्यापारियों ने हरियाणा की मंडियों में कल तक न्यूनतम समर्थन मूल्य पर 14,95,560 टन गेहूं की खरीद की है। खाद्य, नागरिक आपूर्ति और उपभोक्ता मामलों के विभाग के प्रवक्ता ने कहा कि अभी तक खरीद कार्य सुगम तरीके से चल रहा है। प्रवक्ता ने बताया कि 3,75,769 टन गेहूं की खरीद खाद्य, नागरिक आपूर्ति एवं उपभोक्ता मामलों के विभाग ने की है। हरियाणा राज्य सहकारी आपूर्ति एवं विपणन महासंघ लि. (हाफेड) ने 4,45,959 टन गेहूं खरीदा है। भारतीय खाद्य निगम ने 2,15,216 टन, हरियाणा एग्रो इंडस्ट्रीज कारपोरेशन ने 1,11,912 टन और हरियाणा भंडारण निगम ने 3,46,381 टन गेहूं खरीदा है। |




Souce: MarketTimesTv

















More will update soon!!

U.S. Yields Have Decoupled From Oil





Rising oil prices traditionally boost inflation expectations and US interest rates. The May futures contract for light sweet crude oil is up today for the sixth consecutive session, having risen 11 of the past 12 sessions. Over the past two weeks, oil prices have appreciated by 8.7% and are up almost 2.5% this week already. Yet U.S. yields are languishing. The U.S. 10-year yield is near four-month lows and the two-year yield is lower than when the Fed hiked last December.


U.S. yields have decoupled from oil prices. Last summer the correlation between the percent change in oil and the percent change in the 10-year yield on a rolling 60-day basis reached 0.6, which is the upper end of where it has been since the financial crisis. The correlation is now inverse for the first time in nearly two years.


The same general pattern holds for the U.S. two-year note and oil prices. The correlation reached 0.6 last year, which was a seven-year high. The relationship has broken down and the correlation is negative for the first time since the middle of 2015.


Conducting the correlation on the basis of percent change of a yield, which is a percent itself, may be problematic. Conducting the correlation on the level of the oil and the yield level does not alter the picture substantially. Over the past 60 days, the correlation of the price of oil and the two- and 10-year yields are -0.58 and -0.26 respectively.
We also looked at the 10-year break-even, which is the difference between the yield of the inflation-linked security and conventional yield. The correlation on a percentage-change basis has fallen from nearly 0.70 in Q3 16 to near 0.20 today. On a purely directional basis, the correlation has been more than halved to 0.33 since the start of the year. This suggests a decoupling of inflation expectations and the price of oil.


Tuesday's report suggesting that Saudi Arabia may be leaning toward extending OPEC output cuts helped extend the advancing streak in oil. That wasn't surprising, though prices firmed. Note that OPEC boosted its estimate for U.S. shale production by 200k barrels a day to 540k. The non-OPEC output forecast was lifted for the third consecutive month. It now stands at 580k barrels a day, more than four times OPEC's January estimate and roughly half as much as OPEC intends to cut.


News today that suggests Russia may not be so keen to do so may be driving the light profit-taking after the May contract reached $53.75, the highest in a month. Over the past several sessions, the May contract has been hugging the upper Bollinger Band®, set two standard deviations from the 20-day moving average. Other technical indicators are still constructive. Nearby resistance is seen near $54.00-$54.30. Support is pegged around $52.80-$53.00.
The U.S. Department of Energy reported today that oil inventories fell by 2.166 mln barrels last week. This is the first draw down in four weeks and only the second decline in U.S. oil stocks this year. And that's helping prices recover from the profit-taking seen earlier and may help the May contract extend its advancing streak. Inventories in Cushing rose, but by less than expected. Gasoline and distillate inventories fell. The DOE's estimate of demand for oil and products increased.
















More will update soon!!

Read here what US Fund Manager says





US Fund Manager say-Thou USDA confirms larger World Soy sply but Cbot rebounces as No more bearish News in stok nearterm to come/Now Argntna rains again in News:Funds try to access what damage has been done to standing crop thou fields has dried but chances of rain returning to main prdn areas

US President admit US Currency too strong, willing to keep Bank IntRates low*China GovtAgency say-SoyOil stoks much higher so Plants crush Margins negative

Wednsday Cbot Futures starts day firm even after bearish USDA report-remains firm in day-extend gain in night as Funds need some factors to push down Cbot

Wednesday CPO RBD Cif India remains at par rose equal $5-12.50 Ton on Rupee 25 Paise weaker/Cif SoyDegum $7 Ton on weaker Cbot/SunOil Cif quoted $5 Ton higher

Wdnsdy KLC fell 23 Rngt $4.47Ton on rising suply:CPO Fob fell $10:Olin nearby up $5 Ton, forward fell $5 Ton on rising supply fear

Cbot SoyOil moves unch in projection on bearish KLC tone but firms $3.75Ton later thou Petro slips/Funds feel Cbot has little reason to fall on no fresh factor

Cbot Soybean gains $3 Ton as Funds fear Argntna rains returning:US larger weekly Export Inspections too helped sentiments, higher Export target too lend support













More will update soon!!

Infosys Q4 profit may fall 3.7%, FY18 dollar revenue growth guidance seen at 7-9%




Infosys, the country's second largest software services exporter, is expected to show subdued bottomline growth for January-March quarter but the key factor to watch out for would be its guidance for FY18 and whether the company will meet its FY17 dollar revenue guidance or not.

Profit during the quarter is likely to decline 3.7 percent to Rs 3,570 crore and revenue may fall 0.2 percent to Rs 17,235 crore compared with previous quarter.










More will update soon!!

Quarterly Earnings









Apart from big boy Infosys, Reliance Power and Bajaj Corp will also report their results for the quarter ended March later today.

Bajaj Corp is expected to report 22.4 percent YoY jump in net profit to Rs 66.4 crore for the quarter ended March, compared to Rs 54.3 crore reported in the year-ago period.



Reliance Power is expected to report 11 percent YoY fall in the net profit to Rs 285 crore for the quarter ended March compared to Rs 320 crore reported in the year-ago period.












More will update soon!!

Economic Activity




US Dollar Update:  U.S Dollar against major basket of currency fell more than 0.50% ($100.13) overnight on the back of comments from U.S President Donald Trump, stated that he favored weaker currency and low interest rate policy, as global investors seek out higher-yielding alternatives. As per CFTC data, Hedge funds and other speculative investors have pared bullish dollar positions to a net $US16 billion, compared with $US26 billion at the start of the year, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Investors struggling to predict the administration’s path on economic and financial matters
(Bullion will open higher while energy slightly down)














More will update soon!!

Morning Global Update 13 April 2017





Asian Market:


Hang Seng      24239 (-0.30)
Shanghai        3270 (-0.07%)
Australia ASX   5923.8 (+0.76%)
Nikkei 225       18365 (-1.01%)
Taiwan TSEC     9851 (+0.37%)
CRB   188.90    (-0.61%)
Gold COMEX     $1288 (0.84%)
Silver COMEX     $18.50 (0.20%)
WTI Crude        $52.95 (-0.16%)
BRENT Crude   $55.72 (-0.14%)
Dollar Index     100.13 (-0.65)
EURINR  1.066    (0.01%)
USDJPY  108.78     (-0.25%)
GBPUSD 1.2557    (+0.14%)



 Economic Activity


US Dollar Update:  U.S Dollar against major basket of currency fell more than 0.50% ($100.13) overnight on the back of comments from U.S President Donald Trump, stated that he favored weaker currency and low interest rate policy, as global investors seek out higher-yielding alternatives. As per CFTC data, Hedge funds and other speculative investors have pared bullish dollar positions to a net $US16 billion, compared with $US26 billion at the start of the year, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data. Investors struggling to predict the administration’s path on economic and financial matters
(Bullion will open higher while energy slightly down)













More will update soon!!

Infosys Q2 Result Update





Infosys Results








Consol PAT at 3,603 Cr Vs Rs 3,708 cr, Down 3% QoQ
Margins at 24.6% Vs 25.1% QoQ; Consol $ Sales at $2.57 Bn Vs $2.55 Bn QoQ
FY17 revenues crosses 10 billion dollars for first time ever 
Sets FY18 reve guidance  at 6.5% - 8.5% in CC terms; lower than estimate
Cons EBIT at Rs 4,958 cr vs poll of Rs 4,241.63 cr
Cons EBIT margin at 24.7% vs poll of 24.6%





Technical Level


Support at 913 and Resistance at 993 
Above 993 will see upside rally till 1015--1030+++ mark.
Looks weak only if close below 993



















More will update soon!!

Cabinet clears listing of 11 PSUs






The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs on Wednesday approved the listing of 11 public sector undertakings, including five railway subsidiaries — Ircon International, Indian Railway Catering and Tourism Corporation (IRCTC),  Rail Vikas Nigam, Indian Railway Finance Corporation (IRFC) and RITES Ltd.

The plan to list railway subsidiaries and was mooted by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley in the Budget. The Department of Public Asset Management (Dipam) has already initiated the process to fix a consultant for the listing of these two companies.


The non-railway companies approved for listing are Bharat Dynamics (BDL), Garden Reach Shipbuilders & Engineers (GRSE), Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders (MDSL), North Eastern Electric Power Corporation (NEEPCO), MSTC Ltd and Mishra Dhatu Nigam (MIDHANI).

The has also approved reservation of shares for eligible employees of 11 central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) in accordance with the extant provisions of Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) Regulations. To ensure wider participation by small investors, price discount up to 5 per cent on the issue price has also been approved for retail investors and eligible employees.

The Cabinet also approved signing of a on cooperation in the hydrocarbon sector with Bangladesh. It also cleared a policy to provide purchase preference to all public sector undertakings under the petroleum ministry.




OTHER CABINET DECISIONS


  • Special purpose vehicle to be set up to operate government e-marketplace portal to procure goods and services by all government departments and PSUs

  • Minimum support price of raw jute increased by Rs 300 a quintal to Rs 3,500 to boost farmers’ income

  • Electricity grid interconnection to be set up among BIMSTEC countries

  • Rs 2,700-crore claims of exporters to be refunded under an export promotion initiative













More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 13th April 2017







Nifty 9,203/Sensex 29,643 / Bank Nifty 21,666

19 Advances / 32 Declines/ 0 Unchanged



Indian equities resume declining trend; Nifty holds 9200 mark

A session after showcasing a wonderful rally, Indian equity indices faltered and failed to extend the winning momentum on Wednesday as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data- index of industrial production (IIP) for February and consumer price index (CPI) for March-to be released later in the day. Sentiments remained downbeat over Former finance minister P Chidambaram's comment that a more realistic deadline for rolling out the goods and services tax was October 1, instead of the scheduled date of July 1. While maintaining GST would be good for the country in the long-term, the senior Congress leader cautioned the government saying that implementation of the mega tax reform could be inflationary in the short-term. He cited the preparation time needed for small and medium-scale enterprises to get on to the new tax reform structure and the time needed for activating the GSTN platform as the main reasons why he thought October was a more realistic deadline. Adding the woes, leading exporters' body EEPC India has raised a red flag against the debilitating impact of sharp rise in rupee against dollar in the last three months on exports, which may slip off from the recovery path, if the situation persists further. Since the first week of January, rupee has gained by close to six per cent, eroding significantly the exporters' margins and more importantly the competitive edge against India's trade rivals in the international markets.
On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Wednesday, as tensions continue to ratchet up on the Korean Peninsula following a warning from North Korea of a nuclear attack on the US. Chinese stocks edged lower, as softer producer inflation data raised questions on the sustainability of the country's economic recovery and some shares that had rallied on plans for a new economic zone lost steam. Further, Japanese market declined as rising geopolitical tensions curbed risk appetite, with exporters badly hit as the safe-haven yen spiked to a five-month high. However, a rise in oil prices on reports that Saudi Arabia wants output cuts extended for another six months, supported market sentiments. Meanwhile, European shares edged higher, as uncertainty over the forthcoming French presidential elections calmed down a little.
Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks slipped into lower level in late morning session, tracking weak trade in other regional markets. However, the indices recover most of their losses and ended the session moderately lower. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty plunged by over quarter percent to settle above the crucial 9,200 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex took a triple digit cut and closed below the psychological 29,700 mark. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1144 shares on the gaining side against 1756 shares on the losing side, while 136 shares remained unchanged.



FII’s Activity 12-April-17



The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4649.18 crore against gross sell of Rs 5373.96 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 724.78 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 995.17 crore with gross sales of Rs 1200.41 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 205.24 crore in debt.



Now what to expect next??









Nifty Levels




Support at 9080 and Resistance at 9330--9380.

Above 9250 will see upside rally till 9290 and then to 9330---9380 mark else we will see sharp downside panic in it. 

Support intact at 9080.




Bank Nifty Levels





Support at 21550 and resistance at 21800

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 21800. Close above 21800 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 21550 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.





Today's Top Pick


Oriental Hotels







Support at 35 and Resistance at 40.

Weekly close above 40 will see upside rally till 44---48 and then to 55+++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 35.00



Results Today

Infosys Limited

Reliance Power Limited
















More will update soon!!