⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Commodity Alert: Gold rose to its highest in over a week ….

Following comments from key central bankers at an economic policy meeting in the United States boosted the sentiment yellow metals. Spot gold rose 0.5 percent to $1,297.60 an ounce, after reaching its highest since Aug. 18 at $1,298.58 earlier. At the meeting in Jackson Hole on Friday, Yellen made no Reference to U.S. monetary policy but instead focused on financial regulations, leading traders to expect a slowing in further interest rate hikes. Later in the day, European Central Bank Chief Mario Draghi said the bank's ultra-loose monetary policy was working and that the euro zone's economic recovery has taken hold, but refrained from commenting on the single currency's recent strength. Yellen and Draghi remained ambiguous over monetary policy strategies, thus giving market players the reason to lift gold prices on monetary policy uncertainty.

            

Source: Reuters

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Agro Commodity Update (28th-Aug-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Guar futures traded sharply higher as limited supply amid increasing buying interest by millers may help prices to continue its rally. Rising crop failure concerns caused by uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in western Rajasthan is likely to spur speculators to enlarge long positions at futures platform. Cumulative monsoon rainfall in Bikaner, Ganganager and Hanumangargh has been below normal till second half of Aug recorded at -7%, -32% and -18% of LPA. Besides, reports of crop damage in northern Gujarat and lower acreages in Haryana could influence prices positively. 

As per the data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India's guar gum exports for first three month of FY 2017-18 almost doubled to 145,775 tonnes from 77,174 tonnes a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. India exported about 38402 Mt of guar gum during month of June. Improving overseas demand of guar gum supported by rising crude oil prices amid increasing number oil rigs counts in US is likely to buoy guar prices in near future. However, higher acreages for year 2017-18 may restrict the major gains as about 28.26 lakh hac was sown in Rajasthan mid of Aug against the 27.10 lakh hac sown for corresponding period of last year. Similarly, Gujarat has witnessed higher sowing so far as about 1.80 lakh hac was sown till 14th Aug against the 1.19 lakh hac sown for the last year.

Chana futures traded sharply higher from last couple of days as stockists have increased their buying position due to festive demand from dal millers as well as there has been pick-up in demand from retailers against restricted supplies from producing regions have pushed prices of pulses upside. Arrivals of chana in Delhi were pegged at 525 tn, unchanged from Saturday, while in Bikaner, it was 700 bags (1 bag =100 kg) up from 500 bags. Food grain output in the ongoing 2017-18 kharif season is likely to surpass last year’s record of 138.04 million tonnes due to higher acreage and good monsoon for the second straight year. Pulses covered 121.28 lakh hectares as against 116.95 lakh hectare during the same period.

Soybean futures traded with negative bias as profit booking activity was seen at higher level .However, speculators enlarged their positions as unfavourable weather condition along with lower acreages spurted supply worries. Further, strong demand from domestic oil crusher too added support to soybean prices in near term. Reports of deficient rains in soybean planting districts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra along with supply worries following reports of lower acreages in the country too supported soybean prices. The area coverage under soybean, as on 18th August, is reported down by 9 % at 102.3 lakh hectares compared to 112.5 lakh hectares at the same period last year. The U.S. Agriculture Department's forecast for a record crop kept the gains in check. In Export Sales report, USDA showed old crop soybean sales of 453,220 MT for the week of August 10, which was up 10 % from last week’s sales and 154.8% larger than a year ago. While, new crop sales came in at 899,429 MT, a 40.7% increase over a week ago but 43.7% below last year. Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil soybean exports for 2017-18 at 64.5 MMT, nearly 24% higher than the 2016-17, with crush projected at 41 MMT.

Technical Aspect (Sep)

Jeera  

Support at 19550 and Resistance at 20300.

Hurdle at 20300. We will expect upside only close above 20300 mark for the upside target of 21000---21450 else will see sharp downside panic till 19400---19000 and then to 18700 mark

Trade safely with levels only.

Castor Seed 

Support at 4600 and Resistance at 4780.

 Break and close above 4780 with volume will take it to 4950---5050++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4600.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4600 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric 

If unable to breach its support of 7200, we can see a “U” turn in it.

Support is at 7200 and Resistance is at 7550.

Break and close above 7550 will take it to 7680—7800 and then 8000++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 7200.

Fresh selling can be seen below 7200.

Trade with levels only.

Guar seed (Oct)

Our buy call from 3950 to 4270 proven great and made a high of 4270 today.

Now what to expect?

Overall trend still looks positive on charts and any sharp downside fall will be buying opportunity in it. 

Support and stop loss below 3900 on closing basis.

Target looks 4450---4600 and then to 4850 mark in days to come.

Trade with levels only.

Guar gum (Oct)

Our buy call from 8650 to 9000 mark proven great and made a high of 9010 today.

Now what to expect??

Break and sustain above 9050 will take it to 9300—9550++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 8650.

Fresh selling can be seen below 8650.

Trade with levels only.

Chana 

Our buy call 5640 to 6200 proven great and made a high of 6270 today.

Now what to expect?

Support seen at 5950 and Resistance is at 6300.

Break and close above 6300 will take it to 6550—6800++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 5950.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 5950 only.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Support seen at 3770 and resistance is at 3880.

Break and sustain above 3880 will take it to 3950---3980 and then 4050++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3770.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3770.

Trade with levels only.

Soybean 

Support seen at 3165 and Resistance is 3285.

Looks positive and every decline till 3165 will be a buying opportunity in it. Break and sustain above 3285 will take it to 3350---3420++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3165.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3165 only.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil 

Support is 1145 and Resistance is 1180.

Break and sustain above 1180 will take it to 1208---1225+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1145.

Fresh selling can be Support initiated below 1145 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

CPO (Aug)

Support is 512 and Resistance is 523

Looks positive. Break and sustain above 523 will take it to 533---539+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 512.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 512 (Major support) mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX guar gum up 2% on high exports, crop concern

Guar gum futures rose around 2% on NCDEX today due to rise in exports from India, and on crop damage concerns. According to data released by the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority on Wednesday. Further, worry over crop damage in Gujarat and southwest Rajasthan due to floods and severe rains also supported prices, traders analysts said.    The October guar seed contract was at 3,689 rupees per 100 kg, up 1.5% from

the previous close.

Source: Newswire

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Commodity Alert: MCX mentha rises on concerns over damage to crop

                         

The August contract of mentha oil rose on the MCX because of concerns over damage to the fresh mentha crop after heavy rains in Uttar Pradesh, the largest producer. Firm demand for the spice oil from the pharmaceutical industry also supported the prices. A fall in the inventories of the spice oil at the MCX-accredited warehouses aided the gains.  Stocks of mentha oil at the warehouses declined to 1,883.24 tn Wednesday, down 34.92 tn from Tuesday.

Source: Newswire

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Agro Commodity Update (03rd-Aug-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Sugar Futures recover from lower levels on bargain buying. The prices may get support on expectations of higher demand for sugar in coming weeks. The food ministry expects sugar output in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) at 235-240 lakh tonnes (lt), much below 251 lt projected by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). As per the latest official report, Sugar output in Uttar Pradesh may rise to about 92-93 lt in 2017-18, up from 88 lt produced this year, while in Maharashtra, sugar production may rise to 73 lt, up from 42 lt produced in 2016-17.

Turmeric futures traded lower despite uptick in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from the producing regions. According to IMD, Telangana received only 9.2 mm rains which is 85% below normal. Moreover, dry condition and slow sowing progress is supporting prices. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 29-Jul-17, up 2.5% to 39,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 40,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 34% in June as compared with the May. As per the market source, about 18,167 tonnes arrived in July as compared with 27,574 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by the government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.

Jeera futures traded lower despite uptick in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies on reports of lower arrivals due to heavy rains in the producing belts of Gujarat. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during the month of July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival report. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. In line, jeera exports in April 2017 was reported at 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt.

MCX Cotton traded in a tight range with a positive bias as market participants are still assessing the loss of cotton due to heavy rains in Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per the latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 111.2 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 92.3 lakh ha for same period.

Mentha oil futures traded higher on MCX as engaged in building up their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand. Further, tight stock position following a fall in arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too fuelled the uptrend in it.

Technical Aspect

Jeera (Aug)

Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19450.

Any rise close to 19200 will be a selling opportunity in it. Break and close below 18700 further will see more downside panic till 18450---18200 mark in near term.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 19450.

Trade with levels only.

Castor Seed (Aug)

Support at 4380 and Resistance at 4460.

Break and close below 4380 with volume will take it to 4340---4280 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 4460.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 4460 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric (Aug)

Hurdle at 7850---8000. If it unable to breach 8000 mark then we will see sharp downside panic in it.

Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity with stop loss of above 8000 on closing basis.

Downside target looks 6200---5800 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Guar seed (Oct)

Support at 3565 and Resistance at 3650.

Break and sustain above 3650 with volume will take it to 3690---3740++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3565.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3565 only.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Crucial support at 4700. Two consecutive closes + weekly close below 4700 will see sharp downside panic till 4200---3900 mark in days to come.

If break and close below 4700 then stop loss will be above 5050 on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3670 and resistance seen at 3725.

Break and sustain above 3725 will take it to 3780---3820 and then 3870++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3670.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3670.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (Aug)

Support is 1120 and Resistance is 1170

Looks positive and every decline till 1120 can be accumulate more. Break and sustain above 1170 will take it to 1194---1220+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1120.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1120 mark on closing basis.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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