Fundamental Aspect
Sugar Futures recover from lower levels on bargain buying. The prices may get support on expectations of higher demand for sugar in coming weeks. The food ministry expects sugar output in 2017-18 (Oct-Sep) at 235-240 lakh tonnes (lt), much below 251 lt projected by the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA). As per the latest official report, Sugar output in Uttar Pradesh may rise to about 92-93 lt in 2017-18, up from 88 lt produced this year, while in Maharashtra, sugar production may rise to 73 lt, up from 42 lt produced in 2016-17.
Turmeric futures traded lower despite uptick in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies from the producing regions. According to IMD, Telangana received only 9.2 mm rains which is 85% below normal. Moreover, dry condition and slow sowing progress is supporting prices. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 29-Jul-17, up 2.5% to 39,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 40,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 34% in June as compared with the May. As per the market source, about 18,167 tonnes arrived in July as compared with 27,574 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by the government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Jeera futures traded lower despite uptick in demand at the spot market against restricted supplies on reports of lower arrivals due to heavy rains in the producing belts of Gujarat. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during the month of July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival report. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. In line, jeera exports in April 2017 was reported at 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt.
MCX Cotton traded in a tight range with a positive bias as market participants are still assessing the loss of cotton due to heavy rains in Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per the latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 111.2 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 92.3 lakh ha for same period.
Mentha oil futures traded higher on MCX as engaged in building up their positions, tracking a firm trend at spot market on strong demand. Further, tight stock position following a fall in arrivals from major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too fuelled the uptrend in it.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19450.
Any rise close to 19200 will be a selling opportunity in it. Break and close below 18700 further will see more downside panic till 18450---18200 mark in near term.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19450.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Support at 4380 and Resistance at 4460.
Break and close below 4380 with volume will take it to 4340---4280 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 4460.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 4460 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Aug)
Hurdle at 7850---8000. If it unable to breach 8000 mark then we will see sharp downside panic in it.
Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity with stop loss of above 8000 on closing basis.
Downside target looks 6200---5800 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3565 and Resistance at 3650.
Break and sustain above 3650 with volume will take it to 3690---3740++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3565.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3565 only.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Crucial support at 4700. Two consecutive closes + weekly close below 4700 will see sharp downside panic till 4200---3900 mark in days to come.
If break and close below 4700 then stop loss will be above 5050 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3670 and resistance seen at 3725.
Break and sustain above 3725 will take it to 3780---3820 and then 3870++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3670.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3670.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (Aug)
Support is 1120 and Resistance is 1170
Looks positive and every decline till 1120 can be accumulate more. Break and sustain above 1170 will take it to 1194---1220+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1120.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1120 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
