Fundamental Aspect
Guar futures traded sharply higher as limited supply amid increasing buying interest by millers may help prices to continue its rally. Rising crop failure concerns caused by uneven distribution of monsoon rainfall in western Rajasthan is likely to spur speculators to enlarge long positions at futures platform. Cumulative monsoon rainfall in Bikaner, Ganganager and Hanumangargh has been below normal till second half of Aug recorded at -7%, -32% and -18% of LPA. Besides, reports of crop damage in northern Gujarat and lower acreages in Haryana could influence prices positively.
As per the data from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, India's guar gum exports for first three month of FY 2017-18 almost doubled to 145,775 tonnes from 77,174 tonnes a year ago, due to higher demand from the US. India exported about 38402 Mt of guar gum during month of June. Improving overseas demand of guar gum supported by rising crude oil prices amid increasing number oil rigs counts in US is likely to buoy guar prices in near future. However, higher acreages for year 2017-18 may restrict the major gains as about 28.26 lakh hac was sown in Rajasthan mid of Aug against the 27.10 lakh hac sown for corresponding period of last year. Similarly, Gujarat has witnessed higher sowing so far as about 1.80 lakh hac was sown till 14th Aug against the 1.19 lakh hac sown for the last year.
Chana futures traded sharply higher from last couple of days as stockists have increased their buying position due to festive demand from dal millers as well as there has been pick-up in demand from retailers against restricted supplies from producing regions have pushed prices of pulses upside. Arrivals of chana in Delhi were pegged at 525 tn, unchanged from Saturday, while in Bikaner, it was 700 bags (1 bag =100 kg) up from 500 bags. Food grain output in the ongoing 2017-18 kharif season is likely to surpass last year’s record of 138.04 million tonnes due to higher acreage and good monsoon for the second straight year. Pulses covered 121.28 lakh hectares as against 116.95 lakh hectare during the same period.
Soybean futures traded with negative bias as profit booking activity was seen at higher level .However, speculators enlarged their positions as unfavourable weather condition along with lower acreages spurted supply worries. Further, strong demand from domestic oil crusher too added support to soybean prices in near term. Reports of deficient rains in soybean planting districts of Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra along with supply worries following reports of lower acreages in the country too supported soybean prices. The area coverage under soybean, as on 18th August, is reported down by 9 % at 102.3 lakh hectares compared to 112.5 lakh hectares at the same period last year. The U.S. Agriculture Department's forecast for a record crop kept the gains in check. In Export Sales report, USDA showed old crop soybean sales of 453,220 MT for the week of August 10, which was up 10 % from last week’s sales and 154.8% larger than a year ago. While, new crop sales came in at 899,429 MT, a 40.7% increase over a week ago but 43.7% below last year. Safras and Mercado estimate Brazil soybean exports for 2017-18 at 64.5 MMT, nearly 24% higher than the 2016-17, with crush projected at 41 MMT.
Technical Aspect (Sep)
Jeera
Support at 19550 and Resistance at 20300.
Hurdle at 20300. We will expect upside only close above 20300 mark for the upside target of 21000---21450 else will see sharp downside panic till 19400---19000 and then to 18700 mark
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4600 and Resistance at 4780.
Break and close above 4780 with volume will take it to 4950---5050++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4600.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4600 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
If unable to breach its support of 7200, we can see a “U” turn in it.
Support is at 7200 and Resistance is at 7550.
Break and close above 7550 will take it to 7680—7800 and then 8000++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 7200.
Fresh selling can be seen below 7200.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Our buy call from 3950 to 4270 proven great and made a high of 4270 today.
Now what to expect?
Overall trend still looks positive on charts and any sharp downside fall will be buying opportunity in it.
Support and stop loss below 3900 on closing basis.
Target looks 4450---4600 and then to 4850 mark in days to come.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
Our buy call from 8650 to 9000 mark proven great and made a high of 9010 today.
Now what to expect??
Break and sustain above 9050 will take it to 9300—9550++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 8650.
Fresh selling can be seen below 8650.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Our buy call 5640 to 6200 proven great and made a high of 6270 today.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 5950 and Resistance is at 6300.
Break and close above 6300 will take it to 6550—6800++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 5950.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 5950 only.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3770 and resistance is at 3880.
Break and sustain above 3880 will take it to 3950---3980 and then 4050++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3770.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3770.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3165 and Resistance is 3285.
Looks positive and every decline till 3165 will be a buying opportunity in it. Break and sustain above 3285 will take it to 3350---3420++mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3165.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3165 only.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Support is 1145 and Resistance is 1180.
Break and sustain above 1180 will take it to 1208---1225+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1145.
Fresh selling can be Support initiated below 1145 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (Aug)
Support is 512 and Resistance is 523
Looks positive. Break and sustain above 523 will take it to 533---539+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 512.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 512 (Major support) mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
