Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 12th June 2017

Nifty 9,668/Sensex 31,262/ Bank Nifty 23,690

26 Advances / 25 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Late hour recovery help benchmarks to end near day’s high

Recovering from day’s lows, Indian benchmark indices completed the last day of the week on optimistic note, as investors showed huge buying interests in Realty, Metal and Auto counters. Sentiments got a boost after Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council constituted 18 sectoral groups like telecom, textiles, gems and jewellery, e-commerce and mining, constituting officers both from the Centre and states to address sector-specific issues and assist in smooth roll-out of the new indirect tax regime from July 1, 2017. Some support also came with UN trade report that despite stagnant foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $44 billion in 2016, India will most likely remain most favoured destination due to its attractiveness among MNCs for cross-border mergers and acquisitions. Besides, India Met Department (IMD) has said that a low-pressure area would form in the Bay of Bengal in the next two days, boosting prospects of accelerated progress of the monsoon, also supported the sentiments. However, global market sentiment took a hit after UK elections left no single party with a clear claim to power ahead of talks to exit the European Union (EU), sideswipe investors who had already weathered major risk events in the United States (US). Further, market participants also remained anxious as a survey by the Reserve Bank of India showed that the economy will gradually consolidate growth in the current fiscal. The survey enlightened that real gross domestic product (GDP) and real gross value added (GVA) are expected to grow by 7.4% and 7.2%, respectively, in 2017-18 and consolidate further by 40 basis points (bps) and 50 bps, respectively in the following year. According to the forecasters, retail inflation is expected to gradually rise to 5% by the fourth quarter of 2017-18.

On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Friday, as investors largely shrugged off political uncertainty in the UK and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve meeting due next week. Japanese market ended higher as index-heavyweight SoftBank soared more than 7 percent after its unit agreed to buy US robotics firm Boston Dynamics from Alphabet. Also, the yen remained weak against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said there is still a long way to go until the inflation target of 2 percent is achieved. Further, Chinese shares rose slightly despite inflation data painting a mixed picture of the world's second-largest economy. Meanwhile, European markets were advancing in early trade as oil prices gained traction and after the European Central Bank (ECB) raised its economic growth projections through 2019, and said that it would carry on with its bond purchases at least through December.

Back home, state-owned electric utilities companies such as NHPC and SJVN rallied on reports that the government has decided to provide a Rs 16,000-crore bailout package to the hydropower sector, drowning under a spate of stalled and stressed projects.  The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1391 shares on the gaining side against 1289 shares on the losing side, while 177 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 09-June-17

The FIIs as per Friday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5906.79 crore against gross selling of Rs 3834.14 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 2072.65 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 4609.71 crore with gross sales of Rs 1273.07 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 3336.64 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9735.

Above 9670 will see upside rally till 9735 mark. More and more power will see only close above 9735 else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23540 and resistance at 23700

Above 23700 will see further upside rally till 23815---23860 mark.

More upside rally will see only close above 23860 level else it could test its support level of 23540 again.

Today's Top Pick

Kesoram Industries Limited

Support at 135 and Resistance at 150

Above 150 will see upside rally till 165--170++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 135

Ex-Dividend Today

JSW Steel Limited Rs 2.25/- Per share

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 9th June 17

Gold futures ended lower on Thursday as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies and as investors viewed the testimony from former US FBI director James Comey as containing no significant surprises.

Crude oil futures continued their weak trend on Thursday and ended in red for second consecutive day, briefly dipping to a one-month low on the back of concerns of rising global output, following the return of Nigerian crude to the market and an unexpected surge in US crude stockpiles. Royal Dutch Shell lifted force majeure on exports of Nigeria’s Forcados crude oil, brining all of the West African country’s oil exports fully online for the first time in 16 months. Also, the prices were under pressure with production from the US and others picking up, OPEC's supply quota plan with Russia has been rendered essentially ineffective.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Thursday as investors reacted positively to the import data from China. Chinese imports jumped 14.8 percent year on year, accelerating from an 11.9 percent rise in April and blowing past expectations of an 8.5 percent rise.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28900 and Resistance at 29200

Trend looks weak and could touch its support level of 28900. Weekly close below 28900 will take it to 28550---28300 mark else could touch its resistance level of 29200 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 29200

Silver

Support at 39600 and Resistance at 40050

Break and sustain below 39600 will take it to 39300---39000 and then to 38700 mark else could touch its resistance level of 40050 again

Trade with levels only.

Crude 

Support at 2910 and Resistance at 2980

Break and sustain below 2910 will take it to 2870---2830 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 2980 mark.

Trade with levels only

Natural Gas

Support at 191.50 and Resistance at 199.50

  

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Copper 

Support at 369 and Resistance at 375

Close above 375 will take it to 378—380 and then to 383 else could touch its support level of 369.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 369

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (09-June-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded almost flat with positive bias as speculators enlarged their positions amid drastic reduction in soybean arrivals in the physical markets in Madhya Pradesh due to agitation by the farmers. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 7 days of June dropped by 78% to 16,850 tonnes as compared to 60,729 noted in the last week of May. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs 20,000 ha year ago. Sowing is yet to commence in some key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the oilseed is typically sown after the first monsoon showers. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. As per the USDA report, US soybeans is planted almost 83% vs. 67% noted in the earlier week. CFTC indicated that the traders added another 26,955 contracts to their net short position in the week ending May 30.

Cardamom traded up as investors extended their bets amid surge in physical demand for cardamom in domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on restricted physical arrivals from major cardamom producing regions also added support to cardamom prices' uptrend. Last year cardamom output was down by 50% at 15,000 tonnes. Arrivals to auctions declined by half to about 40 tonnes daily. The new harvest season will set in by this month-end. But if rains don’t intensify in Idukki in coming days anticipated good crop will not happen.

Jeera price traded up on rising domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. On export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17.As per the trader estimate, India s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes lower than 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. Even at lower crop estimate jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally.  

Government’s wheat procurement has touched 30.1 million tonnes (MT) so far in the ongoing rabi 2017-18 MY, crossing the last year’s total purchase of 22.9 MT. About 11.7 MT of wheat has been procured from Punjab, 7.4 MT from Haryana, 6.72 MT from Madhya Pradesh, 3 MT from Uttar Pradesh and 1.17 MT from Rajasthan so far this marketing year. The wheat marketing year normally runs from April to March. But the procurement this year was undertaken a fortnight early by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as well as state agencies. The government procures wheat from farmers at the minimum support price (MSP). The government has set a procurement target of 33 MT for 2017-18 on the back of record output. Further, wheat production target is kept at a record 97.44 MT for 2016-17 crop year, much higher than the actual output of 93.50 MT last year.

Technical Aspect: (July Contract)

Soybean

Our Buy call from 2770 to 2850 proven great and made a high of 2862 yesterday.

What to expect???

Now price unable to breach 2865 and slipped again.

Support is 2750 and resistance is 2865

Either side decisive break or close will decide the further trend.

Trade with levels only 

Soyaref 

Our buy call from 619 to 632 proven great in June contract.

What to expect???

Soyaref (July) has support at 625 and resistance of 635 

 Break and close above 635 will take 642---645+++ mark else could touch its support level of 625 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 625.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

Support at 4650. Weekly close below 4650 will take to 4300---4200 and then to 3980 mark.

Hurdle at 4800---5000

Fresh buying can be seen only above 5000.

Trade with levels only.

Jeera

Support is 17950 and resistance is at 18600

Close above 18600 will take it to 19000---19300 and then to 19700 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17950 again.

Fresh selling can be seen below 17950.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Support at 3520 and Resistance 3600

Weekly close above 3600 will take it to 3650—3680 and then to 3730+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3520

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3520

Turmeric

Support at 5380 and Resistance at 5620.

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Cocudakl

Our buy call from 1690  proven great and made a high of 1735 today.

Now what to expect??

Support 1690 and resistance at 1750.

Break and sustain above 1750 will take it to 1790—1820 and then to 1850+++ mark else could touch its support level of 1690.

Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1690.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Our buy call from 910 to 932 proving great and made a high of 917.60

Hurdle at 920 and support at 886. 

Close above 920 will see sharp upside rally till 932---948 and then to 970 mark

Fresh selling will do only close below 886

Trade with levels only.

CPO (June)

Price positively breached its key support of 488.50

Now what to expect???

Looks weak and weekly close below 488.50 will take it to 484---481 and the 476 mark in near term

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 496.

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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Techincal Pick : Oriental bank of commerce

Technical View – Oriental bank of commerce

Oriental bank of commerce is finding support at 140 and resistance at 151. On hourly chart, Oriental bank of commerce MACD & RSI both showing positive momentum which indicates that upside side seems certain in it. Break and sustain above 151 will see nonstop rally in oriental bank of commerce till 158---164 and then 168++ in weeks to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 168+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 140 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

   Trading Recommendation  

Buy Oriental bank of commerce above 151 for the initial upside target of 158—164 and then to 168++ mark with stop loss below 140 on closing basis.

More will update soon!! 

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मौसम : गोवा पहुंचा माॅनसून, दक्षिण भारत में झमाझम बारिश

मौसम विभाग के ताजा अपडेट के मुताबिक माॅनसून गोवा दस्तक दे चुका है और देश के दक्षिणी हिस्से में झमाझम बारिश देखी जा रही है। मौसम विभाग के सूत्रों से मिली जानकारी के मुताबिक माॅनसून बेहतर रहेगा और दूसरे अनुमान के मुताबिक आगे बढ़ रहा है। जानकारों की मानें तो माॅनसून पर अलनिनो का असर नदारद है और देश में अच्छी बारिश के चलते और जीएसटी के प्रभाव के चलते एग्री कमोडिटीज़ अपने लाॅ लेवल पर देखी जा रही हैं। फिलहाल खरीददार बाजार से गायब है और माॅनसून पर निगाहें टिकाए हुए है। हालांकि बाजार ताकतों की मानें तो नीचले स्तरों पर एग्री कमोडिटीज़ में खरीददारी देखी जा सकती है लेकिन कारोबारी जीएसटी को समझने की कोशिश कर रहे हैं जबतक जीएसटी के नियम पूरी तरह से साफ नहीं हो जाते तबतक खरीददारी का जोखिम नहीं लेना चाहते।

Source: MarketTimesTv

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 9th June 2017

Rupee appreciates for second consecutive session on Thursday

Indian rupee strengthened against US dollar for second consecutive session on Thursday, on increased selling of the American currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive with UNCTAD’s latest report that India would be the top prospective foreign direct investment (FDI) destination globally after the U.S. and China. It also said that an improved economic outlook in major Asian economies such as India, China is likely to lift investor confidence and help boost FDI inflows by about 15 percent in 2017. 

However, dollar’s gains against its rivals overseas and a weak domestic equity market weakened the rupee sentiment. On the global front, euro steadied near six-month highs on Thursday ahead of a European Central Bank policy announcement while sterling set a two-week high as markets priced in a victory for Britain's Conservative Party in national elections.

USDINR

Support at 64.25 and resistance at 64.55.

Weekly close below 64.25 will take it to 64.00—63.80 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 64.55 mark.

Fresh buying only above 64.55

GBPINR

Support at 82.10 and Resistance at 82.70

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 82.10 Weekly close below 82.10 will take it to 81.80—81.50 mark , else could touch its resistance level of 82.70 mark.

Fresh buying only above 82.70.

EURINR

Support at 72.15 and Hurdle at 72.40

Close below 72.15 will take it to 72.00—71.90 and then to 71.75 mark else could touch its resistance level of 72.40 again.

Fresh buying only above 72.40 mark.

JPYINR

Support at 58.35 and Resistance at 58.50

Close below 58.35 will take it to 58.10—58.00 and then to 57.80 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 58.50




















More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 9th June 2017

Nifty 9,647/Sensex 31,213/ Bank Nifty 23,536

23 Advances / 27 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

 Indian benchmarks settle with moderate losses; Nifty ends below 9650 mark

It turned out to be a lethargic performance from Indian benchmark indices on Thursday, as they failed to snap the session in the green territory and settled marginally below the neutral line. Today’s session largely remained characterized by choppiness, as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band for most part of the day, as investors and foreign funds were adopting a cautious approach, ahead of key political and economic events in the U.S. and Europe. Sentiments remained subdued after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised concerns over the possibility of fiscal slippages due to the farm loan waivers. RBI Governor Urjit Patel said unless that state governments' budgets allow that fiscal space to go in for a loan waiver, it would be risky to tread on that path.  RBI also cut the economic growth projection to 7.3% for the current fiscal from 7.4% earlier. The central bank, however, used a less hawkish tone and reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy for financial year 2017-18.

Traders turned anxious after chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian expressed his unhappiness over the Reserve Bank's inflexibility on interest rates. He warned that real policy rates are becoming tighter and rising at a time of low inflation and slowing growth. However, losses remained capped with UNCTAD’s latest report that India would be the top prospective foreign direct investment (FDI) destination globally after the US and China. It also said that an improved economic outlook in major Asian economies such as India, China is likely to lift investor confidence and help boost FDI inflows by about 15 percent in 2017.

On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Thursday,  as investors braced for any surprises from the UK elections, the European Central Bank's policy meeting and congressional testimony from ex-FBI director James Comey who was fired by President Donald Trump last month. The British pound held firm at $1.2957, near its highest levels in two weeks, supported in part by polls showing Prime Minister Theresa May is on course to increase her majority in parliament. Japanese shares ended lower as the yen edged higher in late Asian deals on a report that the Bank of Japan was re-calibrating its communications to acknowledge it is thinking about how to handle a withdrawal from its monetary stimulus. However, Chinese shares ended higher after Chinese exports and imports data topped expectations. Exports advanced 8.7% year-on-year in dollar terms in May, while Imports climbed 14.8%.

Back home, many liquor stocks gained traction after Karnataka state government decided to send a proposal to the union government seeking to de notify the national highways (NH) pass through urban local bodies in Karnataka as local roads. Likewise, shares of steel companies were trading higher in an otherwise subdued market on the expectations of a revival in consumption during the current financial year 2017-18. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1328 shares on the gaining side against 1351 shares on the losing side, while 177 shares remained unchanged.

 FII’s Activity 8-June-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5119.15 crore against gross selling of Rs 5029.81 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 89.34 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 3466.96 crore with gross sales of Rs 742.97 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 2723.99 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9735.

Above 9660 will see upside rally till 9735 mark. More and more power will see only close above 9735 else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23400 and resistance at 23570

Above 23570 will see further upside rally till 23670---23750 mark.

More upside rally will see only close above 23750 level else it could test its support level of 23400 again.

Today's Top Pick

EIH Limited

Support at 127 and Resistance at 135

It looks positive on charts. Above 135 will see upside rally till 148---153+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 127 mark

More will update soon!!

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