Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded almost flat with positive bias as speculators enlarged their positions amid drastic reduction in soybean arrivals in the physical markets in Madhya Pradesh due to agitation by the farmers. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 7 days of June dropped by 78% to 16,850 tonnes as compared to 60,729 noted in the last week of May. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs 20,000 ha year ago. Sowing is yet to commence in some key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the oilseed is typically sown after the first monsoon showers. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. As per the USDA report, US soybeans is planted almost 83% vs. 67% noted in the earlier week. CFTC indicated that the traders added another 26,955 contracts to their net short position in the week ending May 30.
Cardamom traded up as investors extended their bets amid surge in physical demand for cardamom in domestic spot market. Further, insufficient supplies on restricted physical arrivals from major cardamom producing regions also added support to cardamom prices' uptrend. Last year cardamom output was down by 50% at 15,000 tonnes. Arrivals to auctions declined by half to about 40 tonnes daily. The new harvest season will set in by this month-end. But if rains don’t intensify in Idukki in coming days anticipated good crop will not happen.
Jeera price traded up on rising domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. On export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17.As per the trader estimate, India s jeera crop output will be around 2.5 lakh tonnes lower than 3.75 to 5 lakh-tonne estimated. Even at lower crop estimate jeera exports are projected to range between 100,000-150,000 tonnes for the year. Exports will happen in spite of higher prices because there is no supplier of jeera available globally.
Government’s wheat procurement has touched 30.1 million tonnes (MT) so far in the ongoing rabi 2017-18 MY, crossing the last year’s total purchase of 22.9 MT. About 11.7 MT of wheat has been procured from Punjab, 7.4 MT from Haryana, 6.72 MT from Madhya Pradesh, 3 MT from Uttar Pradesh and 1.17 MT from Rajasthan so far this marketing year. The wheat marketing year normally runs from April to March. But the procurement this year was undertaken a fortnight early by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as well as state agencies. The government procures wheat from farmers at the minimum support price (MSP). The government has set a procurement target of 33 MT for 2017-18 on the back of record output. Further, wheat production target is kept at a record 97.44 MT for 2016-17 crop year, much higher than the actual output of 93.50 MT last year.
Technical Aspect: (July Contract)
Soybean
Our Buy call from 2770 to 2850 proven great and made a high of 2862 yesterday.
What to expect???
Now price unable to breach 2865 and slipped again.
Support is 2750 and resistance is 2865
Either side decisive break or close will decide the further trend.
Trade with levels only
Soyaref
Our buy call from 619 to 632 proven great in June contract.
What to expect???
Soyaref (July) has support at 625 and resistance of 635
Break and close above 635 will take 642---645+++ mark else could touch its support level of 625 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 625.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Support at 4650. Weekly close below 4650 will take to 4300---4200 and then to 3980 mark.
Hurdle at 4800---5000
Fresh buying can be seen only above 5000.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support is 17950 and resistance is at 18600
Close above 18600 will take it to 19000---19300 and then to 19700 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17950 again.
Fresh selling can be seen below 17950.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support at 3520 and Resistance 3600
Weekly close above 3600 will take it to 3650—3680 and then to 3730+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3520
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3520
Turmeric
Support at 5380 and Resistance at 5620.
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
Cocudakl
Our buy call from 1690 proven great and made a high of 1735 today.
Now what to expect??
Support 1690 and resistance at 1750.
Break and sustain above 1750 will take it to 1790—1820 and then to 1850+++ mark else could touch its support level of 1690.
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1690.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (June)
Our buy call from 910 to 932 proving great and made a high of 917.60
Hurdle at 920 and support at 886.
Close above 920 will see sharp upside rally till 932---948 and then to 970 mark
Fresh selling will do only close below 886
Trade with levels only.
CPO (June)
Price positively breached its key support of 488.50
Now what to expect???
Looks weak and weekly close below 488.50 will take it to 484---481 and the 476 mark in near term
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 496.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!
