Agri Commodity Update (18-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded sideways with a positive note on the back of reported lower physical demand as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh stated to shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. According to USDA latest report of crop progress , till 14th May’17 around 32% of the soybean sowing is completed as compared to 34% in previous year same duration and 32% on prior 5-year average. However, its production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y).Though, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways.

Turmeric futures traded up due to lower arrivals marked from the producing regions. Reports showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 14 days of May at 28,212 tons compared to 69,452 tons during April (1-14). On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are poorer.

Cardamom futures likely to trade in a range bound levels for the day. Good pre monsoon showers in cardamom growing regions have boosted the expectations of higher crop in the upcoming season. Further, there are expectations of initial commencement of harvesting activities that may weigh down the prices. According to the IMD, SW monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on 14th May and conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon during next 72 hours. However, pickup in demand from lower levels and export demand from Saudi Arabia ahead of Raman may cap the loss for cardamom futures prices.

Jeera futures traded in tight range from last couple of days. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Our sell call from 2890 to 2818 proven great.

Now what to expect???

Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870.

Close below 2790 will take to 2760 and then to 2720---2650 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2870 again.

Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2870 mark.

Trade with levels only

Soyref

Support at 625 and Resistance 638---645

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 625 only.

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed 

Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3850.

Momentum looks positive and could test its resistance.

Fresh sell can be initiated only below 3700.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900.

Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity. 

More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark.

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1900 and resistance is at 1950.

Close below 1900 will take to 1860---1825 mark else it may test its resistance of 1950 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated only close above 1950.

Trend- Sideways 

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 945 and resistance at 968.

Close above 968 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 945 again.

Close below 945 will see again panic till 920---905 mark.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Support seen at 507 and resistance is 516---524

Close above 516 will take to 524 mark. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 507. 

Trade with levels only.

Trend – Higher

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 18th May 2017

Nifty 9,525 /Sensex 30,322 / Bank Nifty 22,935

23 Advances / 27 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks notch fresh closing highs for the third straight session*

Domestic frontline indices went through a choppy session of trade to finally negotiate a close in the green territory, as a strong rupee and healthy buying in metal and automobile stocks buoyed investors' sentiments. Further, the continued buying from FII and announcement of good quarterly results by some blue-chip companies kept a positive vibe in the market. Adding the optimism of investors, senior UN economic official has said demonetisation policy is not expected to have a long-term impact on domestic demand in India, which is projected to clock a 7.9% growth in fiscal 2018. Also, the Union Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that government’s move to demonetise Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes has helped the authorities bring 9.1 million people under the tax net as money has lost its anonymity.

Markets exhibited sideways pattern as traders were adopting a cautious approach ahead of a crucial GST (Goods and Services Tax) panel meet in Srinagar starting tomorrow. Besides, negative trend was seen in global markets, amid ongoing political uncertainty in the US, capping the gains. However, investors' sentiments got some support with Indian Meteorological department’s (IMD) statement that the southwest monsoon will hit Kerala on May 30, two days ahead of schedule. The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala signals the arrival of monsoon over the Indian subcontinent.

Meanwhile, power stocks gained after the CCEA approved a new coal linkage policy to ensure adequate supply of the fuel to power plants through reverse auction. Buying intensified in metal stocks after India Ratings and Research said that the National Steel Policy 2017 announced by the Ministry of Steel will give a boost to the struggling Indian steel industry and it is betting on higher spending on infrastructure and construction sector through government initiatives to push steel demand and increase utilization. The policy focuses on improvement in the efficiency parameters so as to reduce the cost of production and develop advanced steel products to reduce the dependence on imports.  Also, Finance Ministry imposed a definitive anti-dumping duty on ‘aluminium foil’ imports from China, giving some relief to local manufacturer. Based on the recommendations of the Designated Authority in the Commerce Ministry, the revenue department levied an antidumping duty that ranged from $0.69 per kilogram to $1.63 per kilogram.

On the global front, Asian markets ended lower on Wednesday, as investors remained cautious about US President Donald Trump’s ability to push through his economic agenda following accusations that he tried to quash an FBI probe. Fresh reports emerged of President Donald Trump's interference in the Federal Bureau of Investigation's probe around his former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn. The latest development adds to the ongoing political turmoil after a report that the US president shared terrorism intelligence with Russian officials, an action he has since defended. Further, Japanese market edged lower after the dollar eased against the yen on weak US economic data, while financials stocks underperformed hit by lower US yields. Also, Japan's core machinery orders fell short of expectations in March from the previous month. Core orders, regarded as a leading indicator of capital spending in the coming six to nine months, rose 1.4% in March from the previous month.

Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks traded in tight range near neutral line for most part of the session, but managed to end the day on optimistic note.  Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index - Nifty settled with modest gains of thirteen points above the psychological 9,500 levels, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index - Sensex gained quarter percent and closed above the psychological 30,600 mark. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1269 shares on the gaining side against 1531 shares on the losing side, while 172 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 17-May-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5768.74 crore against gross selling of Rs 4724.55 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1044.19 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1236.89 crore with gross sales of Rs 243.14 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 993.75 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9450---9380 and Resistance at 9550

Above 9550 rally remain continue till 9580---9620+++ mark else will it could test its support level of 9450---9380 again.

Trade with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 23000

Close above 23000 will see further upside rally in it else it could touch its support level of 22550 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Results Today

Cummins India Limited

Strides Shasun Limited

Muthoot Finance Limited

Pidilite Industries Limited

IDBI Bank Limited

Bank of Baroda

      

        

          More will update soon!!        

                

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We are again back with our all time favorite stock Just Dial

Last time in our special report on Just Dial we had given buying recommendation in it from 440 levels.

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Agri Commodity Update (17-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures opened with a positive note on the back of reported lower physical demand as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh stated to shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. According to USDA latest report of crop progress , till 14th May’17 around 32% of the soybean sowing is completed as compared to 34% in previous year same duration and 32% on prior 5-year average. However, its production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y).Though, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways.

Cotton futures traded with a mixed tone after surging for 2 successive sessions tracking cues from the global prices. There are supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trade sources, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this term. Moreover, USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, which is up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac as compared with 10% up noted a year ago. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.77 lakh tonnes marked previously.

Jeera futures recovered sharply supported by fresh buying form lower levels. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

Mentha oil futures traded moderately higher as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agro-commodity amid surge in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Currently, the market participants are waiting for the new crop which is expected to start by month-end. The long term outlook seems to bullish owing to estimates of lower production & thin ending stocks of 5,000 MT which is sharply lower from last year.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Our sell call from 2890 to 2818 proven great yesterday.

Now what to expect???

Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870

Close below 2790 will take to 2760 and then to 2720---2650 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2870 again.

Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2870 mark

Trade with levels only

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 638---645

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 615 only.

Jeera 

Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400

Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed 

Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3850

Momentum looks positive and could test its resistance.

Fresh sell can be initiated only below 3700.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900

Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity. 

More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1900 and resistance is at 1950

Close below 1900 will take to 1860---1825 mark else it may test its resistance of 1950 again

Fresh buying can be initiated only close above 1950.

Trend- Sideways 

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 935 and resistance at 960

Close above 960 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 935 again.

Close below 935 will see again panic till 920---905 mark

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Our buy call from 505 to 512 proven great and touched a high of 514.1 today.

Support seen at 507 and resistance is 516---524+++

Close above 516 will take to 524---538++ mark

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 507 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Higher

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick - Arvind

Technical Pick - Arvind

Arvind is finding support at 390 and resistance at 400. Break and sustain above 400 will see nonstop rally till 410+ and then 415++ in days to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 410++mark in coming days. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 390 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Arvind above 400 on closing basis for the initial upside target of 410 and then 415++ mark with stop loss below 390 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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