Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures opened with a positive note on the back of reported lower physical demand as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh stated to shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. According to USDA latest report of crop progress , till 14th May’17 around 32% of the soybean sowing is completed as compared to 34% in previous year same duration and 32% on prior 5-year average. However, its production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y).Though, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways.
Cotton futures traded with a mixed tone after surging for 2 successive sessions tracking cues from the global prices. There are supplies this season through imports and good stocks available with the farmers. As per the trade sources, India’s cotton imports have touched an all-time high of 30 lakh bales this term. Moreover, USDA forecasts India cotton production for 2017-18 at 6.01 MT, which is up nearly 6% while area is forecast at 11.5 Mhac as compared with 10% up noted a year ago. The domestic cotton arrivals in April are higher by 49% on year at 2.64 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.77 lakh tonnes marked previously.
Jeera futures recovered sharply supported by fresh buying form lower levels. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.
Mentha oil futures traded moderately higher as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agro-commodity amid surge in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Currently, the market participants are waiting for the new crop which is expected to start by month-end. The long term outlook seems to bullish owing to estimates of lower production & thin ending stocks of 5,000 MT which is sharply lower from last year.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Our sell call from 2890 to 2818 proven great yesterday.
Now what to expect???
Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870
Close below 2790 will take to 2760 and then to 2720---2650 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2870 again.
Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2870 mark
Trade with levels only
Soyref
Support at 615 and Resistance 638---645
We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 615 only.
Jeera
Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400
Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3850
Momentum looks positive and could test its resistance.
Fresh sell can be initiated only below 3700.
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.
Turmeric
Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900
Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.
More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1900 and resistance is at 1950
Close below 1900 will take to 1860---1825 mark else it may test its resistance of 1950 again
Fresh buying can be initiated only close above 1950.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 935 and resistance at 960
Close above 960 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 935 again.
Close below 935 will see again panic till 920---905 mark
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Our buy call from 505 to 512 proven great and touched a high of 514.1 today.
Support seen at 507 and resistance is 516---524+++
Close above 516 will take to 524---538++ mark
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 507 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Higher
More will update soon!!
