Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded sideways with a positive note on the back of reported lower physical demand as 60% of soybean mills in Madhya Pradesh stated to shut down because of subdued demand for soymeal and lower prices of soy oil. According to USDA latest report of crop progress , till 14th May’17 around 32% of the soybean sowing is completed as compared to 34% in previous year same duration and 32% on prior 5-year average. However, its production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y).Though, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways.
Turmeric futures traded up due to lower arrivals marked from the producing regions. Reports showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 14 days of May at 28,212 tons compared to 69,452 tons during April (1-14). On the export front, country exported about 97,596 tonnes during April-Feb period, up by 26.6% compared to last year exports of 77,087 tonnes, as per government data. There are expectations of improved demand in coming weeks as prices are poorer.
Cardamom futures likely to trade in a range bound levels for the day. Good pre monsoon showers in cardamom growing regions have boosted the expectations of higher crop in the upcoming season. Further, there are expectations of initial commencement of harvesting activities that may weigh down the prices. According to the IMD, SW monsoon has advanced into some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, Nicobar Islands, entire south Andaman Sea and parts of north Andaman Sea on 14th May and conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon during next 72 hours. However, pickup in demand from lower levels and export demand from Saudi Arabia ahead of Raman may cap the loss for cardamom futures prices.
Jeera futures traded in tight range from last couple of days. The arrivals have now slowed down in the physical market. As per the trader source, 4,316 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-14) compared to 17,494 in April (1-14). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Our sell call from 2890 to 2818 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support seen at 2790---2760 and resistance at 2870.
Close below 2790 will take to 2760 and then to 2720---2650 mark else it could test its resistance level of 2870 again.
Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 2870 mark.
Trade with levels only
Soyref
Support at 625 and Resistance 638---645
We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 625 only.
Jeera
Support at 17800 and resistance at 18400.
Close below 17800 will see further downside panic till 17350---17050 else it could touch its resistance level of 18400 again.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed
Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3850.
Momentum looks positive and could test its resistance.
Fresh sell can be initiated only below 3700.
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.
Turmeric
Crucial support at 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900.
Looks sideways higher and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.
More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark.
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1900 and resistance is at 1950.
Close below 1900 will take to 1860---1825 mark else it may test its resistance of 1950 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated only close above 1950.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 945 and resistance at 968.
Close above 968 will take to 990---1010 mark else it could test its support level of 945 again.
Close below 945 will see again panic till 920---905 mark.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Support seen at 507 and resistance is 516---524
Close above 516 will take to 524 mark. Fresh selling can initiate only close below 507.
Trade with levels only.
Trend – Higher
More will update soon!!
