Agri Commodity Update (15-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures weakened sharply tracking weak cues from the international market and sufficient supplies in the domestic market. As per the latest USDA report, soybean production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y) while, the crushing volume will be improved. Moreover, meal exports and soy oil imports will be higher in 2017-18 as compared with the year ago. However, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways. Arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55,133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market.

Jeera futures traded moderately lower due to technical selling despite good gains in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during first week of May compared to the same period preceding month. As per trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

Turmeric future marginally higher due to technical buying at the lower level along with rising demand at the spot market. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 14 days of May at 28,212 tonnes compared to 69,452 tonnes during April (1-14).

Mentha oil futures traded reasonably higher as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agro-commodity amid uptick in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Moreover, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from major producing region of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too supported mentha oil prices.

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support at 2835 and resistance at 2930

Looks weak and if prices break and sustain below 2835 will take it to 2780—2745 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2930 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 2930 mark.

Soyref

Support at 610 and Resistance 632---645.

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 632---645

Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 610 again

Fresh selling can initiate only below 610 only.

Dhaniya 

Support at 5450 and Resistance is 5800

Break and close below 5450 will see further panic till 5300. More and more panic will see only below 5300 mark.

Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17850 and resistance at 18550---18750.

Tight range of trading seen from last couple of days. We will wait for break out which will set the further trend.

Close below 17850 will see a sharp downside panic till 17350---17100 else it could touch its resistance level of 18550---18750 again

Trend- Sideways Lower

RM Seed 

Support at 3710 and resistance is 3790---3850

Momentum looks weak and could test it's support. If prices gives daily close below 3710 will see a sharp downside panic towards 3665---3630.

Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.

Turmeric

Crucial support is 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900

Looks positive and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity. 

More power will see above 5900 will take  6100---6200 mark.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1930 and resistance is at 1990

Looks weak and close below 1930 will take to 1890---1860 mark else it may test its resistance of 1990 again

Fresh buying can be seen only above 1990.

Trend- Sideways Lower

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 925---905 and resistance at 960

Trade with levels only. Anything seems will update.

CPO (May)

Support seen at 499 and resistance is 505

Looks positive and if prices break and sustain above 505 can see more upside till 512---516 mark else could touch its support level of 499 again

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 499 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

Read More

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 15th May 2017

Nifty 9,400/Sensex 30,188 / Bank Nifty 22,671

19 Advances / 32 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks settle with moderate cuts; Sensex slips below 30,200 mark

Indian markets finished last trading session of the week on a pessimistic note, as investors remained cautious ahead of macroeconomic data - industrial production numbers for March and inflation data for April based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) - to be announced later in the day. CPI is expected to have eased to a three-month low of 3.49% in April from 3.81% the previous month. The government will release the new series of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) as well as Wholesale Price Index (WPI), with 2011-12 as the base year, so as to map economic activities more accurately. Also, there was some profit taking in the high fliers of the recent rally that once led Sensex slip below the crucial level of 30,200, but despite the rallies losing fizz, downside remains capped with SBI Research's Ecowrap report, indicating that the easing of crude oil prices will have positive effect not only on inflation but also on GDP growth. It said that average crude oil prices will be around $45 for the next half of this year and this, coupled with positive macro fundamentals, could translate into better growth numbers for the country. Some support also came with Finance Secretary Ashok Lavasa’s statement that India can clock a GDP growth of over 7.5 percent in the fiscal 2017-18 and the country's macro-economic fundamentals, including fiscal deficit and inflation, are all very sound. Lavasa also said that while there has been a general climate of economic slowdown in the last few years across the world, India has managed to maintain a healthy rate of growth. In scrip specific development, the top loser in Nifty was Yes Bank, which came under selling pressure after the bank disclosed that it had reported lower non-performing assets (NPAs) than what was judged by the banking regulator for the year ended March 31, 2016. According to its annual report, the bank had reported gross NPAs worth Rs 748.9 crore as on March 31, 2016, while the RBI, as part of its annual supervisory action, had asked the lender to report gross NPAs worth Rs 4,925.6 crore. Furthermore, Asian Paints shed around three percent even after the company reported 10.13% rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 479.61 crore for the March quarter of last fiscal. On the other hand, Reliance Infrastructure surged after the company won Rs 2,950 crore arbitration award against Delhi Metro Rail Corporation (DMRC) for the alleged breach by the latter of the agreement on the Airport Express line.

On the global front, Asian market ended mixed on Friday, tracking overnight weakness in Europe and the US markets, amid disappointing earnings reports. Heightened political uncertainty in Washington triggered by President Donald Trump's abrupt firing of FBI chief James Comey and the improving odds of a June rate hike also kept underlying sentiment cautious. Japanese shares eased from 17-month highs as a slightly stronger yen triggered selling in futures markets while investors focused on a slew of corporate earnings such as from automaker Nissan on a surprise hike in dividend. However, Chinese shares ended higher after China's central bank injected fresh funds through a medium-term lending facility to keep liquidity stable. Meanwhile, Crude oil prices were steady with international benchmark Brent still above $50/barrel, reportedly as traders now expect production cuts to extend beyond the middle of this year.

Back home, after getting a cautious start, the local benchmarks immediately slipped into negative territory and continued their weak trade throughout the session. Finally, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, suffered a moderate cut of around quarter percent to settle just above the crucial 9,400 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex- slipped around sixty-two points and closed below the psychological 30,200 mark. On the BSE sectorial space, Consumer Durables index remained the top laggard in the space and settled with around a percent laceration followed by the Banking, Power and Healthcare pockets, which went home with over half a percent cuts. However, the high beta Realty along with export driven software and technology counters remained the top gainers in the space with gains of around a percent.

FII’s Activity 12-May-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 9717.64 crore against gross selling of Rs 8352.72 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1364.92 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 678.91 crore with gross sales of Rs 562.70 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 116.21 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9280 and Resistance at 9450.

Above 9450 rally remain continue till 9520---9580+++ mark else will it could test its support level of 9380 and then to 9330---9280 again.

Trade with level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 23000

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 23000

 Close above 23000 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22550 again.

Wait for confirmation

Today's Top Pick

Tata Motors

Support at 418 and Resistance at 433

Above 433 will see upside rally till 449---462+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 418

Results Today

Bata India Limited

Vedanta Limited

The South Indian Bank Limited

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited

Indo Count Industries Limited

Colgate Palmolive (India) Limited

More will update soon!!

Read More

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 12th May 17

Gold futures ended higher on Thursday as US and European stock markets retreated, though it pared gains after data showing a tightening jobs market and accelerating inflation briefly lifted the dollar and pulled US bond yields from earlier lows.

Crude oil futures extended their gains for the second straight day, following surprisingly big drop in US crude stockpiles. Though, traders overlooked latest report from OPEC, which boosted estimates for growth in non-OPEC supplies by 64 percent as US shale production rises at a furious pace and another report that output from top exporter Saudi Arabia inched up last month. OPEC and non-member oil producers are considering extending a global supply cut for nine months or more to give the market more time to rebalance Now traders will keep a close eye on U.S. rig count figures from Baker Hughes.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Thursday, while London copper prices too rose as funds cut bearish bets, but the sustainability of gains will depend on industrial activity and investment data from top consumer China next week.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 27900 and Resistance at 28250---28400

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss.

Silver

Support at 37700 and Resistance at 38400

Close above 38400 will take it to 38700----39000+ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 37700 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 37700

Crude 

Hurdle at 3120…. Above 3120 rally remain continue till 3150—3180 and then to 3200+ mark, else could touch its support level of 3050 mark again.

Trade in a range with levels only

Copper 

Support at 356 and Resistance at 365

Looks positive could touch its resistance level of 365, Weekly close above 365 will take it to 370---375++ mark else could touch its support level of 356 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 356 mark.

Economic Data

06:00 P.M CPI m/m:  Previous -0.3%, Forecast 0.3%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in CPI m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Core CPI m/m:  Previous -0.1%, Forecast 0.2%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Core CPI m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

    

06:00 P.M Core Retail Sales m/m:  Previous 0.0%, Forecast 0.5%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Core retail sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Retail Sales m/m:  Previous -0.2%, Forecast 0.6%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Retail sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

06:30 FOMC Member Evans Speaks

More will update soon!!

Read More

Agri Commodity Update (12-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded in a narrow range with a downbeat bias. As per USDA latest report, soybean production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT as last year while the crushing volume will be improved while meal exports and soy oil imports will be higher in 2017-18 compared to last year. Global soybean production in 2017/18 is forecast to decline to 345 million tons. However, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways. Arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55,133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market.

Jeera futures continue to trade in a range bound with higher tone this week due to short covering activity emerge despite weak trend in the spot market. Furthermore, huge stocks at the spot markets following higher supplies from the major growing belt in Gujarat and Rajasthan too fuelled the downtrend. As per the trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

Turmeric futures traded higher on NCDEX on expectation of rising fresh demand at the spot market. Moreover, lower arrivals from the producing regions also added support to turmeric prices. As per the report, showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tons compared to 20,703 tons during April (1-7).

Mentha oil futures traded marginally lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity amid average demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. The arrivals have increased in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which is creating pressure on the mentha prices

Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support at 2890 and resistance at 2960---3005

Looks week and if prices break and sustain below 2890 will take it to 2865—2830 and then to 2770 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2960-3005 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 2960 mark.

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 632---638.

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645

Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again

Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya (June)

We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.

Support at 5600 and Resistance is 6050

Break and close below 5600 will see further downside move till 5300-5140

Dead cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts 

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 18200---17850 and resistance at 18700---19050.

Price strongly rejecting its resistance zone of 18700---19050. If prices failed to manage above the level can see sharp downside again in near term.

Close below 18200 will see a sharp downside panic till 17750---17400 else it could touch its resistance level of 18700 and then 19050 mark again

Be cautious at upper levels.

Trend- Sideways 

RM Seed (June)

Support at 3700 and resistance is 3760---3790

Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3655---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3760---3790 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3760 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC (June)

Crucial support is 5480 and resistance is 5850

Looks positive and every decline till 5480 we will accumulate the position. 

More power will see above 5850 will take to 6050 mark else could break its support level of 5480 again.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5480

 Trade with levels only

Cocudakl (June)

Support seen at 1930 and resistance is at 1975- 2035

Looks weak and close below 1930 will take to 1890---1865 mark else it may test its resistance of 1975 and then 2035 again

Trend- Sideways Lower

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 905 and resistance at 940

Two consecutive close below 905 will see further weakness till 888---875 mark else could test it resistance level of 940 again, where once fresh round of selling can be seen.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Our target was 505. Made a high of 504.40 today. 

What to expect??

Weekly close above 505 could see more power towards 514---524+++ else it could test its support level of 495----492 again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 492 mark. 

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

Read More

India private forecaster Skymet holds to weak monsoon view, contrary to IMD

 India's only private weather agency on Thursday warned against "irrational exuberance" after a state forecast flagged heavier-than-expected monsoon rains and the stocks of companies dependent on the farm economy shot ahead a second straight day. 

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) told Reuters late on Tuesday that the June-September monsoon season - critical for the half of the country's farmland that is not irrigated - was likely to bring more rain than its previous forecast as concerns over the El Nino weather condition had eased.

Indian shares have been on a record-breaking spree since, but privately held Skymet said it was sticking to its forecast of below-normal monsoon rains.

"I am cautiously optimistic but I need more data - which will come between a week and 10 days - to take a better call," Skymet CEO Jatin Singh told Reuters. 

"The El Nino forecast has become volatile, (and) next week it might go up again. We will have to see it week by week."

El Nino, a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the eastern and central Pacific, typically occurs every few years and is linked to crop damage, fires and flash floods. 

Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said this week some international climate models have reduced the likelihood of El Nino this year compared to indications last month. Five of eight such models, however, still indicate the tropical Pacific Ocean may exceed El Nino thresholds during the second half of 2017. (bit.ly/1k3blIG)

Kyle Tapley, an agriculture meteorologist with U.S.-based MDA Weather Services, said he expected a slightly below-normal monsoon this year in India but nothing "catastrophic".

"During the monsoon season in India we will be probably transitioning into El Nino, so I don't think there will be huge impact but we are showing a little bit of drier influence," Tapley told Reuters. 

IMD, which on April 18 forecast this year's monsoon rains at 96 percent of the 50-year average of 89 cm, cautioned though that weather patterns are dynamic. 

India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of the 50-year average. 

The federal farm ministry has already written to various states to review their preparedness to manage impact on farmers in case of below-normal rains, it said in a statement on Monday. 

Government data shows that only once in the last four years have actual rains been higher than IMD's official forecasts.

More will update soon!!

Read More