Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded in a narrow range with a downbeat bias. As per USDA latest report, soybean production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT as last year while the crushing volume will be improved while meal exports and soy oil imports will be higher in 2017-18 compared to last year. Global soybean production in 2017/18 is forecast to decline to 345 million tons. However, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways. Arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55,133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market.
Jeera futures continue to trade in a range bound with higher tone this week due to short covering activity emerge despite weak trend in the spot market. Furthermore, huge stocks at the spot markets following higher supplies from the major growing belt in Gujarat and Rajasthan too fuelled the downtrend. As per the trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.
Turmeric futures traded higher on NCDEX on expectation of rising fresh demand at the spot market. Moreover, lower arrivals from the producing regions also added support to turmeric prices. As per the report, showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tons compared to 20,703 tons during April (1-7).
Mentha oil futures traded marginally lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity amid average demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. The arrivals have increased in the major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. Also in recent years the production and consumption of synthetic mentha has increased which is creating pressure on the mentha prices
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Support at 2890 and resistance at 2960---3005
Looks week and if prices break and sustain below 2890 will take it to 2865—2830 and then to 2770 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2960-3005 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 2960 mark.
Soyref
Support at 615 and Resistance 632---638.
We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645
Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again
Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya (June)
We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.
Support at 5600 and Resistance is 6050
Break and close below 5600 will see further downside move till 5300-5140
Dead cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 18200---17850 and resistance at 18700---19050.
Price strongly rejecting its resistance zone of 18700---19050. If prices failed to manage above the level can see sharp downside again in near term.
Close below 18200 will see a sharp downside panic till 17750---17400 else it could touch its resistance level of 18700 and then 19050 mark again
Be cautious at upper levels.
Trend- Sideways
RM Seed (June)
Support at 3700 and resistance is 3760---3790
Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3655---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3760---3790 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3760 mark
Trade in a range with levels only
TMC (June)
Crucial support is 5480 and resistance is 5850
Looks positive and every decline till 5480 we will accumulate the position.
More power will see above 5850 will take to 6050 mark else could break its support level of 5480 again.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5480
Trade with levels only
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1930 and resistance is at 1975- 2035
Looks weak and close below 1930 will take to 1890---1865 mark else it may test its resistance of 1975 and then 2035 again
Trend- Sideways Lower
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 905 and resistance at 940
Two consecutive close below 905 will see further weakness till 888---875 mark else could test it resistance level of 940 again, where once fresh round of selling can be seen.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Our target was 505. Made a high of 504.40 today.
What to expect??
Weekly close above 505 could see more power towards 514---524+++ else it could test its support level of 495----492 again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 492 mark.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!
