Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures weakened sharply tracking weak cues from the international market and sufficient supplies in the domestic market. As per the latest USDA report, soybean production in the country is kept at the same level at 115 MT (y/y) while, the crushing volume will be improved. Moreover, meal exports and soy oil imports will be higher in 2017-18 as compared with the year ago. However, IMD forecast for higher monsoon than previous forecast in April may keep the prices sideways. Arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55,133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market.
Jeera futures traded moderately lower due to technical selling despite good gains in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during first week of May compared to the same period preceding month. As per trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.
Turmeric future marginally higher due to technical buying at the lower level along with rising demand at the spot market. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 14 days of May at 28,212 tonnes compared to 69,452 tonnes during April (1-14).
Mentha oil futures traded reasonably higher as investors and speculators extended their positions in the agro-commodity amid uptick in demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Moreover, tight stocks position on restricted supplies from major producing region of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too supported mentha oil prices.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Support at 2835 and resistance at 2930
Looks weak and if prices break and sustain below 2835 will take it to 2780—2745 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2930 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 2930 mark.
Soyref
Support at 610 and Resistance 632---645.
We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 632---645
Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 610 again
Fresh selling can initiate only below 610 only.
Dhaniya
Support at 5450 and Resistance is 5800
Break and close below 5450 will see further panic till 5300. More and more panic will see only below 5300 mark.
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 17850 and resistance at 18550---18750.
Tight range of trading seen from last couple of days. We will wait for break out which will set the further trend.
Close below 17850 will see a sharp downside panic till 17350---17100 else it could touch its resistance level of 18550---18750 again
Trend- Sideways Lower
RM Seed
Support at 3710 and resistance is 3790---3850
Momentum looks weak and could test it's support. If prices gives daily close below 3710 will see a sharp downside panic towards 3665---3630.
Trade in a range with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.
Turmeric
Crucial support is 5550---5400 and resistance is 5900
Looks positive and every decline till 5550 will be buying opportunity.
More power will see above 5900 will take 6100---6200 mark.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5400 mark
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Only trade with levels.
Cocudakl (June)
Support seen at 1930 and resistance is at 1990
Looks weak and close below 1930 will take to 1890---1860 mark else it may test its resistance of 1990 again
Fresh buying can be seen only above 1990.
Trend- Sideways Lower
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 925---905 and resistance at 960
Trade with levels only. Anything seems will update.
CPO (May)
Support seen at 499 and resistance is 505
Looks positive and if prices break and sustain above 505 can see more upside till 512---516 mark else could touch its support level of 499 again
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 499 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
