Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 10th May 17

Gold futures traded higher on MCX, bouncing off the prior session's eight-week low after US President Donald Trump abruptly fired FBI Director James Comey in a move that shocked Washington. Besides, Rekindled fears that North Korea could be gearing up for another weapons test also supported gold. However, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next month limited the gains in gold futures.

Gold futures ended lower on Tuesday as safe-haven demand continued to fade in the wake of Emmanuel Macron's victory in the French election and as expectations for tighter US monetary policy lifted bond yields. Yellow metal prices further declined as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies. Wholesale inventories in the US unexpectedly saw a modest increase in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department. The report showed that wholesale inventories rose by 0.2 percent in March after climbing by 0.3 percent in February. Inventories had been expected to edge down by 0.1 percent.

Comex copper futures ended marginally higher on Tuesday, while London copper prices too inched up after falling to a four-month low in the previous session due to data showing a sharp drop in imports of the metal by China, which consumes nearly half the world's copper. However, the US dollar rose versus a currency basket, with another US rate hike in June now almost certain and capped some gains.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 27900 and Resistance at 28250---28400

Close below 27900 will take it to 27650—27400 mark else could touch its resistance level of 28250 again.

Be cautious at upper level. We will expect range bound trading with high volatility. 

Silver

Support at 37800 and Resistance 38700

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss.

Crude 

Support at 2950 and Resistance at 3025

Close above 3025 will take it to 3050—3080 and then to 3130++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 2950 mark again.

Below 2950 we can expect panic till 2900—2880 mark.

Copper 

Support at 356 and Resistance at 363

Close below 356 will take it to 350---345 and then 335 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 363

Fresh buying can be initiated above 363

Economic Data

05:30 P.M ECB President Draghi Speaks

08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -0.9M, Forecast -2.0M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa

More will update soon!!

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Technical pick - Bhushan steel

Technical Pick - Bhushan Steel

   Support at 86.5 and Resistance at 90.5



Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 90.5. Close above 90.5 will see further upside till 94++ in it else could touch its support level of 86.5 again.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Bhushan Steel above 90.5 on closing basis with Stop loss of 86.5 on clsoing basis

More will update soon!!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 10th May 2017

Nifty 9,316/Sensex 29,933 / Bank Nifty 22,707

28 Advances / 23 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

* Indian benchmarks unable to gather stem; end on a flat note*

Indian benchmark indices ended the session on a flat note, with the Nifty managing to hold on to its 9300 mark. Today's session largely remained characterized by consolidation as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band amid lack of triggers. Sentiments got some support with IMF's report indicating that India's growth is expected to rebound to 7.2% in the 2017-18 fiscal and 7.7% in 2018-19. According to the report, the temporary disruptions (primarily to private consumption) caused by cash shortages accompanying the currency exchange initiative are expected to gradually dissipate in 2017 as cash shortages ease. It noted that the investment recovery is expected to remain modest and uneven across sectors as deleveraging takes place and industrial capacity utilisation picks up. Some support also came with the report that mutual fund (MF) industry's asset base crossed the Rs 19 lakh crore mark in April on the back of fresh inflows in equity, debt and money market segments. The assets under management (AUM) of the MF industry, comprising 42 players, rose to an all-time high of Rs 19.26 lakh crore at the end of April from Rs 17.55 lakh crore at the end of March 2017. However, traders turned cautious after agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh asked chief ministers of all states and union territories to review their preparedness to mitigate possible drought in the event of a rain deficit in the upcoming monsoon season. As per the weather office's forecast issued earlier this month, the June-September monsoon rainfall this year is expected to be 96% of the long-term average, with a 5% error margin. Meanwhile, India's food safety regulator has proposed a tax on all packaged foods with high fat, sugar and salt content. The regulator also proposed strict labelling norms for such products and a bar on advertising them on children's television channels. The Food Safety and Standards Authority of India (FSSAI), however, did not specify the quantum of tax that it wants imposed.

On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Tuesday, as the French election euphoria faded and a lack of fresh catalysts kept investors on the sidelines. Japanese equities declined as the market ran out of puff after rallying to a 17-month high the previous day, while  Chinese shares ended flat in thin trading as concerns over tougher financial regulations lingered. The People's Bank of China refrained from injecting cash into markets via open market operations for the third day running, adding to concerns over policy tightening. Meanwhile, South Korean market is closed for Tuesday's presidential election, in which liberal Moon Jae-in is widely expected to win the presidency, following months of leadership vacuum since former President Park Geun-hye was removed in March on charges of bribery and abuse of power. However, European stocks marched higher in early trade, as investors appeared back in the mood to take on more risk in the wake of German's better than expected trade data.

Back home, after getting a firm start, the local benchmarks traded in tight range near neutral line throughout the session and ended the day with moderate gains. The NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, added single digit gains to settle above the crucial 9300 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index or Sensex gained seven points and ended above the psychological 29900 mark. Moreover, broader markets showed some resilience by outclassing their larger peers by good margin. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1469 shares on the gaining side against 1355 shares on the losing side, while 174 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 09-May-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3364.40 crore against gross selling of Rs 3945.75 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 581.35 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1203.77 crore with gross sales of Rs 163.73 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1040.04 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Never change our levels daily. 

Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark else will it could test its support level of 9240 again.

Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark.

Major support intact at 9080

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 22550 and resistance at 22930

Trend Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 22930.

Close above 22930 will see further upside rally in it else could touch its support level of 22550 again.

Today's Top Pick

UPL

Support at 800 and Resistance at 820

Above 820 will see upside rally till 840---855+++ mark.

Looks weak only if close below 800

Results Today

Dalmia Bharat Limited

Zee Entertainment Enterprises Limited

Siemens Limited

Idea Cellular Limited

Hero MotoCorp Limited

Capital First Limited

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 09th May 17

Gold futures edged higher on MCX on account of buying of precious metals from jewellers, retailers and industries. However, the firmer US dollar kept the price move in check as global markets digested Sunday’s French election.

Crude oil futures traded higher on MCX as investors and speculators extended their positions in the energy commodity on expectation that the OPEC-led production cut likely to extend into the second half of the year and beyond 2017. However, concerns over slowing demand and a relentless rise in US crude output, restricted further rise in crude oil prices.

Copper futures ended lower on Monday after another set of weak Chinese data raised doubts about demand from the world’s largest copper consumer. China's April copper imports fell 30 percent month on month to 300,000 tonnes, data from the General Administration of Customs showed, and were down by a third from a year ago as a subdued outlook for industrial activity weighed on demand.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28020---27900 and Resistance at 28250

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Silver

Support at 37800 and Resistance 38700

Too trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss.

Crude 

Support at 2990 and Resistance at 3025

Close above 3025 will take it to 3050—3080 and then to 3130++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 2990 mark again.

Close below 2990 will take to 2950---2920 and then to 2880 mark

Natural Gas

Support at 202.00 and Resistance at 211.50

Below 202, it can touch 199—196 and then to 191.50 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 211.50 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 211.50

Copper

Support at 356 and Resistance at 363

Close below 356 will take it to 350---345 and then 335 mark in days to come, else could touch its resistance level of 363

Fresh buying can be initiated above 363

Economic Data

07:30 P.M JOLTS Job Openings:  Previous 5.74M Forecast 5.67M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in JOLTS Job Openings – will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

More will update soon!!

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : धनिया वायदा पर हटा मार्जिन बेनिफिट

एक्सचेंज की सख्ती के बाद धनिया वायदा ऊपर चढ़ा है, अब एक्सचेंज ने अपने नए सर्कुलर में धनिया मई वायदा के अर्ली पे-इन से मार्जिन बेनिफिट हटा दिया है। मई के बाद एक्सपायर होने वाले कॉन्ट्रैक्ट्स पर ही मार्जिन बेनिफिट मिलेगा। पिछले हफ्ते से ही धनिया पर एक्सचेंज लगातार एक्शन ले रहा है। उसके तहत कमोडिटी एक्सचेंज एनसीडीईएक्स ने धनिया के वायदा सौदे में पोजीशन लिमिट घटा दी है। ये लिमिट 61.5 हजार टन से घटाकर 50 हजार टन कर दी गई है। बिकवाली के सौदों पर 15 फीसदी का स्पेशल मार्जिन लगाने के बावजूद भी पिछले 7 सत्रों में धनिया वायदा में 20 फीसदी की गिरावट देखी जा चुकी है। इसके अलावा एक्सचेंज ने शॉर्ट पोजीशन में जल्दी पे-इन करने पर मिलने वाले मार्जिन बेनिफिट को भी वापस ले लिया है। ये दोनों बदलाव आज से लागू हो गए हैं।

Source: MarketTimesTv

More will update soon!!

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Agri Commodity Update (09-May-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures traded moderately lower due to profit booking and weak trend in the International market. As per SEA, soymeal exports rises about 10 times on year to 1.24 lakh tonnes in April 2017. As per the trader source, the arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55, 133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market may put further pressure on prices.

Jeera futures traded in a narrow range with a lower bias from last couple of days due to technical selling despite good gains in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during first week of May compared to the same period preceding month. As per trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.

NCDEX Turmeric prices showed some sign of recovery after plunge almost 12% in last week. The recovery is due to lower level buying and on expectation that the prices have touched its floor for the season. During the current season there was lower demand from industrial buyers and higher stocks available in the country. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tonnes as compared with the 20,703 tonnes reported during April (1-7).

Mentha Oil futures prices are expected to continue trade on a negative note. Arrival has increased slightly in major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. As per the trader sources, demand is moderate from the major domestic consuming industries. From the export front there is no such positive activity has been witnessed. However in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. Also as winter has ended, thus there is no seasonal demand for mentha.

   Technical Aspect: (June Contract)

Soybean

Support at 2900 and resistance at 3005

Looks sideways and its likely to trade within the levels.

Break and sustain below 2900 will take it to 2865—2830 and then to 2770 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 3005 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3005 mark.

Soyref

Support at 615 and Resistance 632---638.

We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645

Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again

Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.

Trade with levels only

Dhaniya 

We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.

Support at 5650 and Resistance is 6000

Break and close below 5650 will see further downside move till 5300

Dear cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts 

 Trade in a range with levels only

Jeera 

Support at 17850 and resistance at 18700.

Weekly close below 17850 will see a sharp downside panic till 17450---17150 else it could touch its resistance level of 18700 again

Be cautious at upper levels.

Trend- Sideways Lower 

RM Seed 

Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3820

Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3655---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3790---3820 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3790 mark

Trade in a range with levels only

TMC

Crucial support is 5430 and resistance is 5570

We expect rebound in prices and if prices close above 5570 will take to 5700 mark else could touch its support level of 5430 again.

Fresh selling only can be seen below 5430

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems adverse will update.

Cocudakl (June)

Our buy call proven great and made a high of 2035

Close above 2035 will take to 2065---2090 mark. More and more power will see only close above 2090 else it may test its support level of 1950 again

Fresh selling can be seen only below 1950 mark

Trend- Sideways 

Mentha oil (May)

Support at 900 and resistance at 935

Two consecutive close below 900 will see further weakness till 870---855 mark else could test it resistance level of 935 again.

Trade with levels only

CPO (May)

Our target was 498---505. Made a high of 501.30 yesterday. 

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 505. More and more power will see only close above 505 else it could test its support level of 492----487 again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 487 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher

More will update soon!!

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