Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded moderately lower due to profit booking and weak trend in the International market. As per SEA, soymeal exports rises about 10 times on year to 1.24 lakh tonnes in April 2017. As per the trader source, the arrivals of soybean during first week of May, lower by 33% compared to first week arrivals in April. Moreover, the stocks of soybean in NCDEX warehouse as on 1st May 2017 is about 1.21 lakh tonnes against the 55, 133 tonnes last year. This indicates that there are ample supplies available in the physical market may put further pressure on prices.
Jeera futures traded in a narrow range with a lower bias from last couple of days due to technical selling despite good gains in the physical market. The arrivals have been lower during first week of May compared to the same period preceding month. As per trader source, about 2,450 tonnes of jeera reached in May (1-7) compared to 7,997 in April (1-7). On the export front, its increased by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of marketing year 2016-17 as per the data release by Dept. of Commerce, GOI. Recently, Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016-17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lakh tonnes, down 4% from its 2nd estimates.
NCDEX Turmeric prices showed some sign of recovery after plunge almost 12% in last week. The recovery is due to lower level buying and on expectation that the prices have touched its floor for the season. During the current season there was lower demand from industrial buyers and higher stocks available in the country. Turmeric arrivals in the country are lower in first 7 days of May at 11,528 tonnes as compared with the 20,703 tonnes reported during April (1-7).
Mentha Oil futures prices are expected to continue trade on a negative note. Arrival has increased slightly in major spot markets of Uttar Pradesh. As per the trader sources, demand is moderate from the major domestic consuming industries. From the export front there is no such positive activity has been witnessed. However in recent years, the growth in production and consumption of synthetic mentha has influenced the demand for natural mentha. Also as winter has ended, thus there is no seasonal demand for mentha.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soybean
Support at 2900 and resistance at 3005
Looks sideways and its likely to trade within the levels.
Break and sustain below 2900 will take it to 2865—2830 and then to 2770 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 3005 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3005 mark.
Soyref
Support at 615 and Resistance 632---638.
We continued bullish from 618 and still intact on the rising track towards 638---645
Now daily close above 632 will take to 638---645 and then to 657+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 615 again
Fresh selling can initiate only below 615 only.
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya
We still maintained our selling view below 6900 for 5300.
Support at 5650 and Resistance is 6000
Break and close below 5650 will see further downside move till 5300
Dear cat bounce may happen... But trend looks extreme weak on charts
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 17850 and resistance at 18700.
Weekly close below 17850 will see a sharp downside panic till 17450---17150 else it could touch its resistance level of 18700 again
Be cautious at upper levels.
Trend- Sideways Lower
RM Seed
Support at 3700 and resistance is 3790---3820
Momentum looks weak and if prices gives daily close below 3700 will see a sharp downside towards 3655---3620 else could touch its resistance level of 3790---3820 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3790 mark
Trade in a range with levels only
TMC
Crucial support is 5430 and resistance is 5570
We expect rebound in prices and if prices close above 5570 will take to 5700 mark else could touch its support level of 5430 again.
Fresh selling only can be seen below 5430
So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems adverse will update.
Cocudakl (June)
Our buy call proven great and made a high of 2035
Close above 2035 will take to 2065---2090 mark. More and more power will see only close above 2090 else it may test its support level of 1950 again
Fresh selling can be seen only below 1950 mark
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 900 and resistance at 935
Two consecutive close below 900 will see further weakness till 870---855 mark else could test it resistance level of 935 again.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Our target was 498---505. Made a high of 501.30 yesterday.
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 505. More and more power will see only close above 505 else it could test its support level of 492----487 again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 487 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
