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Thursday, April 27, 2017

Agri Commodity Update (27-Apr-2017)






Fundamental Aspect


The India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast of normal monsoon this year has brought cheer to farming community, especially in oilseeds sector, which is largely dependent on edible oil imports. Based on the Met department’s projections, the oil industry body expects another year of robust oilseeds production in the coming kharif season.

Castor seed traded slightly higher amidst higher demand in the spot market. A fall in prices encouraged bargain-buying, which resulted in pullback in prices.

Soybean futures traded almost mixed from last couple of day due to weaker spot market demand for the oilseed. CBOT soybean fell for a second straight session, pressured by spill-over weakness from corn and prospects for increased Brazilian farmer selling. 

Jeera prices traded lower but rising exports demand near term may capped losses at the spot market. Gujarat Agriculture Department in its 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 has revised down the production estimates to 2.12 lt. NCDEX accredited warehouses jeera stocks gained by 33 tonnes to 936 tonnes.

Turmeric futures traded lower on NCDEX despite lower arrivals from the producing regions. Reports showed that the turmeric arrivals in the country is declining in first 20 days in April to 66,025 tons (April 1-20) compared to 1, 15,768 tons during the same period in March.



Technical Aspect


Soybean






Support at 2950 and Resistance at 3000

If unable to breach its support level of 2950 the we can expect upside move till 3000.

Three consecutive close + weekly close above 3000 will take it to 3070---3130 and then to 3200+ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if closes below 2950.


Soyref






Support at 608 and Resistance 620

Break and sustain below 608 we can expect downside move till 592---584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 620

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 620 mark

Trade with levels only


Dhaniya 






Support at 6700 and Resistance is 6920

Break and close above 6920 will see sharp upside move till 7130---7260 mark in days to come else it could touch its support level of 6700 again.

Fresh panic can be seen only below 6700 mark

 Trade in a range with levels only


Jeera 








Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19600

Two consecutive day close +weekly above 19600 will see a sharp upside towards 19980---20250 else it could touch its support level of 18700.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 18700 mark.

Trend- Sideways Higher



RM Seed 







Support at 3750 and Resistance is 3810

Momentum looks sideways and if prices gives daily close below 3750 will extend it to 3705---3660 else could touch its resistance level of 3810 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3810 mark

Trade in a range with levels only



TMC






Support at 6050 and Resistance is 6300

Weekly close below 6050; fresh round of selling can be seen towards 5840 ---5720 mark else could touch its resistance level of 6300 again.

Fresh Buying only can be seen above 6300

So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems will update.



Cocudakl









Support seen at 1950 while resistance can be defined as 2025

Weekly close below 1950 will take to 1890---1865 mark in days to come else it may test its resistance level of 2025 again

Fresh buying can be seen only above 2025 mark



Mentha oil 







Support at 920 and resistance at 945

Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 890---875 mark else could test its resistance level of 945 again.

Weekly close above 945 will take U-Turn

Trade with levels only



CPO (May)






Support at 485 and Resistance at 500.

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 500. More and more power will see only close above 500 towards 508--- 514 mark else it could test its support again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 485 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher














More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 27th April 2017







Nifty 9,351/Sensex 30,133 / Bank Nifty 22,242

21 Advances / 30 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


 Indian benchmarks set new record close; Sensex ends above 30,000 mark


The penultimate day of April series futures and options contract expiry turned out to be a good session for the Indian frontline equity indices as they managed to settle higher for a third straight session, with both Sensex and Nifty closing at fresh record highs, buoyed by better-than-expected quarterly results and positive global cues. Investor sentiments around the globe turned optimistic on possible tax cuts, likely to be announced on Wednesday by President Donald Trump to stimulate the US economy and the outcome of the French election allaying immediate concerns of political uncertainty in the euro zone. On the domestic front, sentiments got a boost after Finance Minister Arun Jaitley asserted that the government was giving top priority to addressing the issue of bad loans, while acknowledging that the problem of non-performing assets was ‘adversely impacting’ the Indian banking system. Besides, Indian rupee appreciating against the dollar to trade at a near 21-month high of 64.07 fuelled the bull run of the bourses. Investors got some confidence from the survey indicating that India continues to remain an economic bright spot despite some bold but disruptive reforms. The FICCI-PwC India Manufacturing Barometer (IMB) survey stated that about 63% of respondents were 'somewhat optimistic' about the prospects of the Indian economy for the coming year, representing a significant jump over last year's 58%.
Some support also came with Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia assuring that prices will not increase due to higher incidence of tax and instead, are likely to come down under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime. He said that though most services will be taxed at 18% under the GST regime, as against the current 15% service tax, a majority of these will get input tax credit on purchases and the overall tax incidence will remain the same. Meanwhile, with the Sensex climbing over 30,000 points, India's market capitalization (m-cap) inching towards $2 trillion-mark. The country's m-cap in dollar terms currently is highest-ever $1.94 trillion, less than 3% shy of the elite milestone. Currently, only 8 other countries have a market value higher than India. A stronger rupee has raised the value of Indian markets and has also increased returns for foreign investors in constant currency terms.
On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday, following the overnight gains on Wall Street amid upbeat corporate earnings results and on optimism that US President Donald Trump is expected to unveil a tax plan later in the day. Chinese market edged higher after China's politburo said the country will continue to adopt a proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. Further, Japanese markets rose to near one-month highs, buoyed by a weaker yen and record high for the Nasdaq Composite, while Financials led the Hong Kong stock market higher as fund managers bet on expectations the quality of banks' balance sheets will likely get better on an improving economic cycle and cheaper valuations. However, European markets opened slightly lower ahead of an important tax announcement in the US. Meanwhile, dollar edged higher against the yen on Wednesday, while the euro held firm near a 5-1/2 month high due to receding concerns about the risks posed by the French presidential election. The dollar rose 0.3% to 111.38 yen, pulling further away from a five-month low of 108.13 yen set on April 17.
Back home, the local benchmark got off to a positive start as investors were largely influenced by the supportive leads from global markets. Thereafter, the frontline indices slowly and steadily started gathering steam and surged by over half a percent by late morning trades. But the optimism soon started showing signs of easing in late hours of trade and profit booking in few sectors and drifting European markets weighed down the local bourses in late afternoon session. However, some short covering in final hours of trade, stoked the bourses once again near highest point in the session. Eventually, the NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, convalesced by close to half percent to settle above the crucial 9,350 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index, Sensex accumulated close to two hundred points and closed above the psychological 30,100 mark. Moreover, the broader markets succumbed to the selling pressure despite showing positive moves early on and settled with moderate cuts. 



MCD Election Results 2017: BJP victory crushes AAP hope (www.business-standard)



The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) scored an emphatic victory in all the three municipal corporations in Delhi, despite allegations of corruption and dismal performance, as well as strong anti-incumbency.
Of the 270 seats in the east, south and north municipalities, the BJP won 181 — the highest since the civic body was trifurcated in 2012. In the election that year, the BJP had won 138 seats of the 272 that went to polls. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which for the first time contested all the seats, finished second with 48. The Congress, which has suffered massive electoral losses across the country since the 2014 general election, was further decimated. Its tally came down to 30 seats, from 77.

There are at least two ways in which the election results can be inferred. First, Delhi voters ignored the dismal performance of sitting councillors despite a record outbreak of dengue and chikungunya in the national capital last year. People voted for the BJP ostensibly because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s growing popularity and party president Amit Shah’s personal handling of the elections. Shah repeated the Gujarat style in Delhi by replacing all the sitting councillors and quelled internal feuds among leaders. The BJP extensively used its star campaigners and focused on the city’s large migrant population.

The victory would enthuse the BJP to keep up its winning trajectory for the next Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. Elections are also due in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura. Odisha Assembly elections are due in 2019. The BJP is expected to face opposition from the Congress in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan and Karnataka and Chhattisgarh.

HDFC may sell realty, digital units to Quikr for 5% stake (livemint)
Housing Development Finance Corp. Ltd (HDFC) is in talks with online classifieds company Quikr India Pvt. Ltd to sell its brokerage business HDFC Realty and its digital business HDFC Red in an-all stock deal, four people with direct knowledge of the matter said.

The size of the deal is likely to be Rs350-400 crore and HDFC, India’s largest mortgage lender, will get a stake of around 5% stake in Quikr in return, said two of the people. The term sheet has been signed and the due diligence process is on, said one of the two persons.

In its last funding round in April 2015, when it received a $150-million cheque from Kinnevik AB, Tiger Global Management and Stead view Capital, Quikr was valued at about $1 billion. The valuation has since risen to $1.5 billion (Rs9,600 crore) following multiple acquisitions over the past 12 months. On the basis of this valuation, a 5% stake would be worth Rs480 crore.The $1.5 billion seems to be disproportionate to the revenue of Quikr, one of a handful of homegrown unicorns (start-ups worth $1 billion or more).

The acquisition of HDFC Red and Realty will be the second big acquisition by Quikr in the online real estate segment after it acquired Tiger Global Management-backed real estate platform Commonfloor in January last year for $120 million. Quikr also acquired Grabhouse, a home rental start-up, for about $10 million in November.The acquisitions are aimed at bolstering Quikr’s revenue. For instance, Commonfloor’s revenue was Rs45 crore in FY15 compared with Quikr’s Rs25 crore.HDFC Realty had revenue of Rs38 crore and a loss of Rs34 lakh for fiscal 2015-16, according to the annual report of HDFC. HDFC Red’s owner, HDFC Developers Ltd, had revenue of Rs6 crore and a loss of Rs12.4 crore in the same period.



FII’s Activity 26-April-17


The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5660.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 5334.27 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 325.98 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 790.89 crore with gross sales of Rs 882.07 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 91.18 crore in debt. 



Now what to expect??






Nifty Levels




Mind-blowing rally we have seen in last three trading session. 

Now what to expect???

Support at 9240 and Resistance at 9380---9450.

Above 9330 rally remain continue till 9380---9450 mark else will it could test its support level of 9240 again

Close below 9240 will take to 9180---9130 mark. Major support intact at 9080



Today's Top Pick


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Biocon Limited

Shriram Transport Finance Company Limited

TVS Motor Company Limited

Ujjivan Financial Services Limited

Tata Elxsi Limited

Reliance Capital Limited

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited

Maruti Suzuki India Limited

Indiabulls Real Estate Limited

















More will update soon!!

Wednesday, April 26, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 26th April. 17







Gold futures ended lower on Monday as polls showed centrist candidate Emmanuel Macron easily beating anti-EU stalwart Marine Le Pen in the May 7 French presidential election. Macron emerged as the top vote-getter in yesterday's first round of the French electoral process. A victory for Macron next month would likely mean the status quo for the EU and euro currency. However, some losses were capped as the dollar slipped against a basket of major currencies and simmering geopolitical tensions in North Korea and the Middle East.


Crude oil futures traded marginally lower on MCX as investors and speculators exited their positions in the energy commodity as API report showed that US crude inventories grew by 8,97,000 barrels in the past week to 532.5 million barrels. Besides, record supplies in the rest of the world, lost traders’ confidence that pledged output cuts by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a group other producers including Russia will rein in oversupply.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Tuesday, while London copper prices too rose as risk appetite continued to strengthen following centrist Emmanuel Macron's victory in the first round of the French presidential election on Sunday, though gains were capped by worries over demand in China.





Technical Level


Gold 





Yesterday we recommended selling in gold around 29020 if crashed and made low of 28660.

Now what to expect??

Trend still looking weak and could test it's support. Close  below 28600 will take to 28450---28200 and then to 28050 mark.

Hurdle at 28850---29000



Silver 





Too recommended selling in silver around 41000, we booked full profit around 40400

Now what to expect?



Support at 40150---39800. Break and sustain below 40150 will take it to 40000—39800. Break and close below 39800 for two consecutive weeks then we will expect sharp downside fall in it.

Immediate hurdle at 40700---41200




Crude Oil 







Below 3170 panic remain continue till 3130—3080 mark.

Resistance and Stop loss above 3210

Natural Gas






Above 205, it can touch 209—212 and then to 215++ mark in days to come.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 201.50 mark only




Copper 


Support at 360—356 and resistance at 368

Above 368 will take it to 371—373 and then to 378+ mark in days to come.

Else could touch its support level of 360—356 again.

Trade with levels only











Economic Data



08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -1.0M, Forecast -1.1M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa

Agri Commodity Update (26-Apr-2017)






Fundamental Aspect


Jeera prices surged as participants created fresh positions, driven by upsurge in demand in spot market. As per 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 production of Jeera in Gujarat revised down to 2.12 lakh tonnes down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes. The arrivals have been lower during first half of the current month compared with the second half of the previous month. As per data by Dept. of commerce, country’s exports rises by 32.7% to 1, 01,188 tonnes in first 10 month.

Turmeric futures showed some mixed trend on NCDEX as the reports showed that, the turmeric arrivals in the country is declining in first 20 days in April to 66,025 tons (April 1-20) compared to 1,15,768 tons during the same period in March. The supply side fundamentals highlight that total output in country is expected to be around 7.5 million bags in 2016-17, as compared to 6.8 million bags in 2015-16 and if we added to the carryover stocks of 3 million bags, the total supply may rise to 10.5 million bags. However, on the domestic consumption side, it is around 6-6.2 million bags & this will leave a surplus of 3 million bags for the next season even after exports. 


Soybean
Soybean futures traded moderately lower as speculators trimmed their positions, tracked by lower prices in overseas markets following rapid US planting. However, falling supplies in domestic markets capped some losses. All India soybean arrivals were stood at 125 000-130,000 bags as compared to 120, 00-125,000 bags. The stock with crushers are said to be low which may keep buying in spot market supporting soybean price in the near term. Crushers are increasing buying prices for soybean on daily basis so that farmers are attracted to sell and crushers will be able to meet near term demand of soymeal. As per SEA data, Soymeal exports from the country jumped by 137% to 916,306 tonnes in 2016/17 Vs. 387,298 tonnes during last financial year 2015-16, however, the exports have declined to 107,059 tonnes in Mar compared to 207,977 tonnes in Feb 2017 (MoM).


Technical Aspect



Soybean






 Support at 2950 and Resistance at 3000

If unable to breach its support level of 2950 the we can expect upside move till 3000, three consecutive close + weekly close above 3000 will take it to 3070---3130 and then to 3200+ mark in days to come.
Looks weak only if closes below 2950.


Soyaref







Support at 605 and Resistance 614

Break and sustain below 605 we can expect downside move till 592 and then 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 614

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 614 mark

Trade with levels only


Dhaniya 







Support at 6800 and Resistance is 6960--7150.

Break and close below 6800 will see sharp downside panic till 6630---6400 mark in days to come else it could touch its resistance level of 6960 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 6960

 Trade in a range with levels only


Jeera 






Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19600

Weekly close above 19600 will see a sharp upside towards 19980---20250 else it could touch its support level of 18700.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 18700 mark.

Trend- Sideways Higher



RM Seed 









Support at 3720 and Resistance is 3840

Momentum looks sideways and if prices gives daily close below 3720 will extend it to 3675---3640 else could touch its resistance level of 3840 again

Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3840 mark



TMC









Our buy call in Turmeric proven great 6148 to 6376 

Now what to expect???

 Support at 6050 and Resistance is 6380 and

Expect choppy session in it. So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems will update.



Cocudakl







Support seen at 1975 while, resistance can be defined as 2040

Hurdle at 2040. Weekly close above 2040 will take to 2085---2130 and then to 2250+ mark in days to come.

Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1975.

Trend- Sideways 



Mentha oil (May)








Support at 920 and resistance at 960

Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 898---875 mark else could test its resistance level of 960 again.

Trade with levels only



CPO (May)








Support at 480 and Resistance at 508.

Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 508.More and more power will see only close above 508 mark else it could test its support again.

Fresh selling can initiate only close below 480 mark. 

Trade with levels only

Trend – Sideways Higher













More will update soon!!