Fundamental Aspect
Jeera prices surged as participants created fresh positions, driven by upsurge in demand in spot market. As per 3rd advance estimates for 2016/17 production of Jeera in Gujarat revised down to 2.12 lakh tonnes down 4% from its 2nd estimates and almost 11% compared to last year production of 2.38 lakh tonnes. The arrivals have been lower during first half of the current month compared with the second half of the previous month. As per data by Dept. of commerce, country’s exports rises by 32.7% to 1, 01,188 tonnes in first 10 month.
Turmeric futures showed some mixed trend on NCDEX as the reports showed that, the turmeric arrivals in the country is declining in first 20 days in April to 66,025 tons (April 1-20) compared to 1,15,768 tons during the same period in March. The supply side fundamentals highlight that total output in country is expected to be around 7.5 million bags in 2016-17, as compared to 6.8 million bags in 2015-16 and if we added to the carryover stocks of 3 million bags, the total supply may rise to 10.5 million bags. However, on the domestic consumption side, it is around 6-6.2 million bags & this will leave a surplus of 3 million bags for the next season even after exports.
Soybean
Soybean futures traded moderately lower as speculators trimmed their positions, tracked by lower prices in overseas markets following rapid US planting. However, falling supplies in domestic markets capped some losses. All India soybean arrivals were stood at 125 000-130,000 bags as compared to 120, 00-125,000 bags. The stock with crushers are said to be low which may keep buying in spot market supporting soybean price in the near term. Crushers are increasing buying prices for soybean on daily basis so that farmers are attracted to sell and crushers will be able to meet near term demand of soymeal. As per SEA data, Soymeal exports from the country jumped by 137% to 916,306 tonnes in 2016/17 Vs. 387,298 tonnes during last financial year 2015-16, however, the exports have declined to 107,059 tonnes in Mar compared to 207,977 tonnes in Feb 2017 (MoM).
Technical Aspect
Soybean
Support at 2950 and Resistance at 3000
If unable to breach its support level of 2950 the we can expect upside move till 3000, three consecutive close + weekly close above 3000 will take it to 3070---3130 and then to 3200+ mark in days to come.
Looks weak only if closes below 2950.
Soyaref
Support at 605 and Resistance 614
Break and sustain below 605 we can expect downside move till 592 and then 584 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 614
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 614 mark
Trade with levels only
Dhaniya
Support at 6800 and Resistance is 6960--7150.
Break and close below 6800 will see sharp downside panic till 6630---6400 mark in days to come else it could touch its resistance level of 6960 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 6960
Trade in a range with levels only
Jeera
Support at 18700 and Resistance at 19600
Weekly close above 19600 will see a sharp upside towards 19980---20250 else it could touch its support level of 18700.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 18700 mark.
Trend- Sideways Higher
RM Seed
Support at 3720 and Resistance is 3840
Momentum looks sideways and if prices gives daily close below 3720 will extend it to 3675---3640 else could touch its resistance level of 3840 again
Fresh buying can initiate only close above 3840 mark
TMC
Our buy call in Turmeric proven great 6148 to 6376
Now what to expect???
Support at 6050 and Resistance is 6380 and
Expect choppy session in it. So be careful while trading in Turmeric. Anything seems will update.
Cocudakl
Support seen at 1975 while, resistance can be defined as 2040
Hurdle at 2040. Weekly close above 2040 will take to 2085---2130 and then to 2250+ mark in days to come.
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1975.
Trend- Sideways
Mentha oil (May)
Support at 920 and resistance at 960
Weekly close below 920 further weakness can be seen till 898---875 mark else could test its resistance level of 960 again.
Trade with levels only
CPO (May)
Support at 480 and Resistance at 508.
Looks positive and could test its resistance level of 508.More and more power will see only close above 508 mark else it could test its support again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 480 mark.
Trade with levels only
Trend – Sideways Higher
More will update soon!!
