Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 22nd March. 17

Gold futures ended lower on Thursday, after the dollar steadied, amid a mixed batch of US economic data, ahead of a key House vote on a healthcare bill to repeal and replace Obamacare. The Commerce Department reported that new home sales increased 6.1 % to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 592,000 units last month compared to expectations of a 0.7% increase to 565,000 units. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims increased by 15,000 to 258,000 in the week ending March 18 from the previous week’s revised total of 243,000 against analysts’ expectations of a drop by 1,000 to 240,000.

Crude oil futures slumped to their four months low on Thursday, as investors continued to fret about growing U.S. crude inventories to record levels. Also, the dollar firmed on rate hike chatter and upbeat economic news and weighed down the crude prices. Last day the US EIA reported crude oil inventories jumped another 4.5 million barrels to a record high. Traders are now looking ahead to Friday afternoon's US oil rig count from Baker Hughes for further cues. The rig count has been constantly rising this winter.

Comex copper futures ended higher on Thursday. While London copper prices too steadied, but was still near one-week lows on news that operations at the world's top producing copper mine in Chile would resume. Workers at BHP Billiton's Escondida mine agreed to go back to work on Saturday, ending a 43-day stoppage.

Technical Level

Gold

Below 28730 panic remain continue till 28550—28400, else could touch its resistance level of 28950

Trade with levels only and be cautious at upper levels.

Silver

Support at 41000 and resistance at 41500

Break and sustain below 41000 will take it to 40400---40000 and then to 39800 mark else could touch its resistance level of 41500 mark.

Further upside rally only close above 41500

Crude Oil 

Support at 3100 and Resistance 3190---3250

Looks weak and can touch support level of 3100, further downside panic will see below 3100 else it could touch its resistance level of 3190---3250 again.

Fresh buying above 3250 mark

Trade with levels only

Copper

Support at 378 and Resistance at 386

Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation

Economic Data

06:00 P.M Core Durable Goods Orders m/m:  Previous 0.5% Forecast 0.0% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Core Durable Goods Orders m/m– will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Durable Goods Orders m/m:  Previous 2.0% Forecast 1.1% Actual –??

Impact – Increase in  Durable Goods Orders m/m– will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

More will update soon!!

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : दालों पर आयात शुल्क लगाने का दिया प्रस्ताव: राम विलास पासवान

केंद्रीय खाद्य एवं उपभोक्ता मंत्रालय के मंत्री राम विलास पासवान ने साफ कर दिया है कि उनका मंत्रालय दालों पर केंद्रीय खाद्य एवं उपभोक्ता मंत्रालय के मंत्री राम विलास पासवान ने साफ कर दिया है कि उनका मंत्रालय दालों पर आयात शुल्क लगाने के पक्ष में है। राम विलास पासवान ने कहा कि उनके मंत्रालय ने दालों पर आयात शुल्क लगाने के लिए वित्तमंत्रालय को प्रस्ताव भेज दिया है और शुल्क लगाने को लेकर अंतिम फैसला अब वित्तमंत्रालय को करना होगा।  

Source: MarketTimesTv

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कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : तेल-तिलहन इंडस्ट्री की मुराद हुई पूरी, सूरजमुखी पर आयात शुल्क घटा

देश में तेल और तिलहन इंडस्ट्री की लंबे समय से चली आ रही मांग को सरकार ने मान लिया है। शुक्रवार को सरकार ने सूरजमुखी बीज पर आयात शुल्क में 20 फीसदी की भारी कटौती कर दी है। पहले सूजमुखी बीज पर 30 फीसदी आयात शुल्क लगता था जिसे अब घटाकर 10 फीसदी कर दिया गया है। हालांकि सरसों और सोयाबीन में आयात शुल्क में किसी तरह की कटौती नहीं हुई है।

सरकार की ओर से जारी हुए नोटिफिकेशन के मुताबिक पहली अप्रैल 2017 से सूरजमुखी बीज पर 10 फीसदी आयात शुल्क लागू होगा। इंडस्ट्री ने सरकार के इस कदम का स्वागत किया है। तेल तिलहन इंडस्ट्री के संगठन सॉल्वेंट एक्सट्रैक्टर्स एसोसिएशन ऑफ इंडिया यानि SEA के कार्यकारी निदेशक डॉ बी वी मेहता ने मार्केट टाइम्स को बताया कि सरकार के इस कदम से घरेलू इंडस्ट्री को सहयोग मिलेगा मेक इन इंडिया प्रोजेक्ट में मदद होगी।

देश में सूरजमुखी बीज का उत्पादन कम होता है लेकिन सूरजमुखी तेल की खपत ज्यादा होती है और खपत को पूरा करने के लिए आयात पर निर्भर रहना पड़ता है। देश में तेल के आयात के बजाय बीज के आयात से घरेलू स्तर पर ही सूरजमुखी तेल का उत्पादन किया जा सकेगा।

पिछले कुछ समय से देश में सूरजमुखी तेल का सालाना आयात 15 लाख टन से अधिक हो रहा है। ऑयल वर्ष (नवंबर से अक्टूबर) 2015-16 के दौरान देश में 15.16 लाख टन सूरजमुखी तेल का आयात हुआ है जबकि 2014-15 में आयात 15.42 लाख टन का आयात हुआ है। मौजूदा ऑयल वर्ष 2016-17 के पहले 4 महीने यानि नवंबर 2016 से फरवरी 2017 के दौरान देश में कुल 7.68 लाख टन सूरजमुखी तेल का आयात हो चुका है।

Source: MarketTimesTv

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मौसम : मानसून कमजोर होने की आशंका बढ़ी: Skymet

मौसम का आकलन करने वाली निजी संस्था स्काइमेट ने कहा है कि इस साल मानसून के कमजोर होने की आशंका बढ़ गई है। स्काइमेट के प्रधान मौसम वैज्ञानिक महेश पलावत ने एक निजी समाचार चैनल को दिए इंटरव्यू में बताया कि इस साल अलनीनो के फिर से अगस्त में आने की आशंका बढ़ गई है और अलनीनो की वजह से मानसून के कमजोर होने के आसार लगाए जा रहे हैं।

महेश पलावत ने बताया कि 2014 और 2015 में भी देश में अलनीनो की वजह से लगातार दो साल मानसून सीजन में बहुत कम बरसात हुई थी और लगातार दो साल सूखे का सामना करना पड़ा था। इस साल भी अगर बरसात स्काइमेट के अनुमान के मुताबिक होती है तो खरीफ फसलों की पैदावार पर असर पड़ सकता है। 

मानसून को लेकर स्काइमेट के अलावा दूसरे अंतरराष्ट्रीय मॉडल भी कुछ इसी तरह की आशंका जता रहे हैं, हालांकि भारतीय मौसम विभाग की तरफ से इसको लेकर अभी किसी तरह का अनुमान जारी नहीं हुआ है, मौसम विभाग अगले महीने मॉनसून को लेकर अपना पहला अनुमान जारी करेगा। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

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Government looks to capture big gains from infra boom via VCF policy

The financing tool, used the world over, is based on the logic that the govt makes large investments in developing public infra leading to rapid economic development in those areas and a spike in land prices.

Tax planning:

How to complete all tax work before March 31

NEW DELHI: A classic get-rich-quick scheme for the well-connected is picking up land cheaply near a new national highway, a railway line or in a smart city before such plans are widely known, then making a killing as prices inevitably soar. Not for much longer. 

The government has decided to implement a value capture financing (VCF) policy for all infrastructure projects starting April to recover the premium that public investments generate for private landowners. 

“The government has decided VCF to be an integral part of detailed project report (DPR) of all projects of the central government,” the finance ministry wrote in a note sent to all ministries and departments. ET has reviewed the note. 

The financing tool, which is used the world over, is based on the logic that the government makes large investments in developing public infrastructure leading to rapid economic development in those areas and a spike in land prices. A VCF policy would mean tapping into this increment through additional taxes, government-as-realtor and other tools and then using these finances to fund future infrastructure projects in the same area. 

The government has decided to implement such a policy after considering it for six months and conducting intensive stakeholder consultations. Ministries and departments will identify the mode by which the VCF policy can be implemented for every project. Each project proposal put before the Public Investment Board (PIB) and the Delegated Investment Board (DIB) will contain these details. 

“It has been decided that the PIB headed by the secretary (expenditure) as well as the DIB chaired by the administrative department concerned while appraising a project of the Central government being implemented in the states, would see whether the ministry/department piloting the proposal relating to the project has examined the option of VCF or not,” said the finance ministry note cited above. 

This is the first time a VCF policy has been framed and is being implemented at the Centre. Though the policy details some financing tools--including land value increment tax, fee for changing land use from agricultural to non-agricultural and area-based betterment charges--nothing specific has been recommended. Each project will be gauged and varied tools can be employed on the basis of location--urban or rural. 

State governments have been employing the financing tool sporadically. The above policy has been recommended to the states but won’t be mandatory for them to follow. 

Source: EconomicTimes

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Technical Pick - IDFC

IDFC

IDFC has support at 51 and resistance at 56. IDFC is forming double bottom pattern on both Daily chart and Weekly chart and having major hurdle at 56. Weekly close above 56 will see sharp upside till 64 and then to 68 mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 51 again. It may become positionally weak if closes below the support of 51.

Trading Recommendation

Buy IDFC Future above 56 with Stop Loss of 51 for the initial target of 64 and then to 68 mark.

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Technical Pick - Alkyl Amines

Alkyl Amines

We have seen long consolidation phase in Alkyl Amines recently it made low 280 but unable to sustain at lower level and bounced back sharply.

Hurdle at 410, Weekly close above 415-420 will take it to 450---475+ mark else could touch its support level of 370 again. It will turn positional weak if closes below 390.00 which seems to be uncertain.

On Daily chart nifty is trading above 21 and 55 days exponential moving average which is at 348 and 332 while RSI and MACD too showing positive divergence which indicates that upper side seems certain in Alkalyemine.

Trading recommendation - Buy Alkyl Amines in cash around 415-420 with stop loss of 370 and for initial target of 450-475 (Positional)

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Update on Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 24th March 2017

Nifty 9,086/Sensex 29,332/ Bank Nifty 20941

40 Advances / 10 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Indian markets convalesce; Sensex ends above 29300 mark

A session after witnessing a distressing performance, Indian equity indices have managed to pull through an amazing performance by gaining over half a percent on Thursday, thanks to firm global cues. Sentiments got a boost with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement that India’s GDP can grow by 7-8 percent if the global economy picks up. He also said the government is hopeful of implementing from July 1 the Goods and Service Tax (GST) to help check tax evasion. The Government is likely to table four GST supplementary legislations in Parliament today. The four Bills are the Central Goods and Services Tax Bill 2017, the Integrated Goods and Services Tax Bill 2017, the Union Territory Goods and Services Tax Bill 2017 and the Goods and Services Tax (Compensation to the States) Bill 2017. Some support also came in from reports that foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought shares worth a net Rs 356.64 crore on March 22, 2017. Further, terror attack in UK, which is said to have taken five lives and left at least 40 injured has limited impact on Indian financial markets. On the domestic front, Investors turned cautious after Reserve Bank of India raised concerns over farm loan waiver as it undermines credit discipline. This observation comes in the context of the likelihood of the newly elected BJP-government in Uttar Pradesh making good its election promise of waiving farm loans and the Opposition in Maharashtra piling pressures on the BJP-Sena government to waive farm loans. According to a recent SBI report, the total outstanding credit (2016) for agriculture sector was Rs 86,241.20 crore in Uttar Pradesh with average ticket size of Rs. 1.34 lakh. Meanwhile, Realty stocks gained traction as the government announced a credit-linked interest subsidy (CLSS) scheme for home loans, leading to savings of more than Rs 2 lakh, or up to Rs 2,000 on EMIs.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher on Thursday as investors continued to monitor developments surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump's pro-growth agenda. Expectations of a big economic stimulus in the world's largest economy have helped fuel a global rally in equity markets. Japanese market edged higher as a weaker yen helped offset news that the head of a Japanese school at the heart of a political scandal received a donation of one million yen from Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's wife in 2015. Further, Chinese markets ended higher, despite investor worries over tight liquidity in the interbank market and increased regulatory scrutiny weighing heavily on B shares.

Back home, after getting a positive start, the local indices soon gathered momentum and traded with around half a percent gains through the morning session of trade. Second half of the session saw the key gauges capitalize on the momentum further and spurt to session’s highest levels in dying moments.  Finally, the NSE’s 50-share broadly followed index Nifty, got buttressed by over half a percent to settle above the crucial 9,050 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index-Sensex accumulated over one hundred and fifty points and closed above the psychological 29,300 mark. Moreover, the broader markets too participated in the rally and closed with gains of around a percent. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1687 shares on the gaining side against 1112 shares on the losing side, while 204 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 23-March-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6619.87 crore against gross selling of Rs 6409.30 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 210.57 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 5617.88 crore with gross sales of Rs 572.78 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 5045.10 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9050---8970 and Resistance at 9155.

Above 9155 will see upside rally till 9218---9248 mark. More and more upside rally will see only weekly close above 9248 else it could test  its support level of 9050---8970 again.

Trade in a range  with levels only.

Today's Top Pick

Kolte-patil Developers

Support at 155 and Resistance at 165

Weekly close above 165 will see sharp upside rally till 178---184+++ mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 155

More will update soon!!

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