Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 16 Feb. 17

Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday as the US dollar backed away from the session’s highs, giving the precious metal an opportunity to rebound after a four-session fall. Though, some gains were capped as US equities climbed on the back of optimism surrounding the Trump administration’s plan to deliver tax reforms and bond yields strengthened in the wake of hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on the nation’s interest-rate picture.

Crude oil futures settled lower on Wednesday after government data confirmed U.S. inventories at record highs. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said US stockpiles rose 9.5 million barrels last week. Gasoline stocks rose 2.8 million barrel and distillate stockpiles fell by 689,000 barrels. Distillate stockpiles fell by 689,000 barrels, in line with forecasts. Total inventories are at an all-time peak of 518.12 million barrels, while gasoline stocks also touched a record. The builds come against more upbeat estimates of reduce oil output globally.

Copper futures ended marginally higher on Wednesday as talks to end a major strike at Chile’s Escondida mine, the world’s biggest copper mine, are delayed. Furthermore, US President Donald Trump repeated his promise of tax cuts, boosting investors risk appetite after robust US data, including retail sales and consumer prices, too supported copper prices’ uptrend.

Technical Level

Gold

Support at 29180 and Resistance at 28420

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 29420. Break and close above 29420 will take it to 29550—29709 mark else could touch its support level of 29180 and then to 29050---28900 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 28900

Silver

Support at 42500 and Resistance at 43000

Break and sustain above 43000 will take it to 43300---43800+ and then to 44000+ mark  else could touch its support level if 42500 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Crude Oil

Support at 3520 and Resistance at 3600

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation. 

Anything seems will update.

Copper

Support at 400 and resistance at 415

Break and sustain below 400 will take it to 394—390 and then to 386 else could touch its resistance level of 415.

Looks positive only above 415.00

Major Economic Data

07:00 P.M Building Permits:  Previous 1.21M Forecast 1.23M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Building Permits - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07:00 P.M Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:  Previous 23.6, Forecast 18.5, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Philly Fed Manufacturing Index  - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 234K Forecast- 243K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

09:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous -152B, Forecast -130B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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कमोडिटी बाजार : सोना चांदी : सोना: देश में इंपोर्ट 29% घटा, लेकिन विदेशों में निवेश मांग बढ़ने से भाव तेज

सरकार की ओर से सोने के आयात को कम करने के लिए किए जा रहे प्रयासों का असर आयात पर साफ दिख रहा है, जनवरी के दौरान देश में सोने के आयात में भारी गिरावट देखने को मिली है लेकिन इसके बावजूद विदेशी बाजार में सोने की निवेश मांग बढ़ी है और भाव में उठाव देखा गया है। कॉमेक्स पर सोने का भाव करीब 5 डॉलर की तेजी के साथ 1,237 डॉलर प्रति औंस के करीब कारोबार कर रहा है। बुधवार को घरेलू वायदा बाजार यानि MCX पर सोना 144 रुपये की तेजी के साथ 29,145 रुपये पर बंद हुआ है।

विदेशी बाजार में डॉलर की गिरावट की वजह से सोने की निवेश मांग में इजाफा हुआ है, डॉलर इंडेक्स फिर से घटकर 101 के नीचे आ गया है, डॉलर में गिरावट की वजह से सोने के एक्सचेंज ट्रेडिड फंड्स ने अपनी खरीदारी को बढ़ाया है।

दुनियाभर में सोने के सबसे बड़े एक्सचेंज ट्रेडिड फंड SPDR गोल्ड ट्रस्ट ने बुधवार को अपने भंडार के लिए 3 टन से ज्यादा सोने की खरीदारी की है और उसका सोने का भंडार बढ़कर 843.54 टन तक पहुंच गया है।

हालांकि घरेलू स्तर पर सोने की मांग में लगातार कमी देखी जा रही है, जनवरी के दौरान देश में सोने का आयात 29% घटा है, केंद्रीय वाणिज्य मंत्रालय की ओर से जारी किए गए आंकड़ों के मुताबिक इस साल जनवरी के दौरान देश में 13,890.80 करोड़ रुपये के सोने का आयात हुआ है जबकि पिछले साल जनवरी में 19,585.77 टन सोने का आयात दर्ज किया गया था। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 16th February 2017

Nifty 8724/Sensex 28155/ Bank Nifty 20163

12 Advances / 38 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks end a disappointing day with half a percent cut

Indian benchmark indices extended their downfall for second consecutive day on Wednesday and finished the choppy day of trade with a cut of over half a percent on account of sustained selling by investors amid the dismal earnings by some blue-chip companies. 

Auto major Tata Motors slipped as much as ten percent after the company reported 96.22% fall in its consolidated net profit at Rs 111.57 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2016, as compared to Rs 2952.67 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. India's largest drug maker Sun Pharmaceutical Industries declined over four percent after the company reported 4.73% drop in its consolidated net profit at Rs 1471.82 crore for Q3 FY17, as compared to Rs 1544.85 crore for the same quarter in the previous year. 

Further, investors turned jittery after the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen hinted at a likely rate hike in the forthcoming policy review. In her semi-annual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Yellen said that the Fed will probably need to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting in March and that delaying rate increases could leave the Fed's policymaking committee behind the curve. 

On the domestic front, sentiments remained dismal as India Ratings (Ind-Ra) cautioned the government that its strategy to revive economic growth by focusing on infrastructure may not yield results unless real estate and manufacturing sectors recover. Revising down economic growth by one percentage point to 6.8% from earlier 7.8% for the current financial year, due to demonetisation, the rating agency pegged economic expansion in the next financial year to 7.4%. Some market participants remained on the sidelines and refrained from any buying activity, ahead of the 10th meeting of the all-powerful GST Council this weekend, where a critical anti-profiteering clause in the draft Goods and Services Tax law to ensure that the benefit of lower taxes gets shared with consumers is likely to be finalized. 

The Council, headed by Finance Minister Arun Jaitley and comprising representatives of all states, is also likely to finalise the definition of 'agriculture' and 'agriculturist' as well as the constitution of a 'National Goods and Services Tax Appellate Tribunal' to adjudicate on disputes. Meanwhile, banking stocks came under pressure on the private report that India may cut the amount of capital it plans to inject into state-controlled lenders this fiscal year by as much as Rs 7,800 crore ($1.2 billion) because of slow loan growth. The government, which had promised to inject Rs 25,000 crore into the lenders in the year ending March 31, has decided to defer Rs 2,100 crore of pledged amount into next financial year.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly higher on Wednesday as wall street touched record highs overnight after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen painted a largely upbeat picture of the world's largest economy during the first day of her two-day testimony and indicated the central bank could raise short-term interest rates at its next policy meeting in March. While Japanese market edged higher as the yen's weakness lifted exporters, Chinese stocks ended lower, as technology and resource stocks took a breather after their recent strong rally. Meanwhile, European stocks pushed higher for a seventh straight session, with banks leading the gains after Janet Yellen sparked a rally in financial stocks by hinting U.S. interest rates soon will go higher.

Back home, the local benchmarks got off to a soft start as the indices showed signs of consolidation in early trade. Thereafter, the key indices failed to show any kind of fervor due to lack of encouraging leads. The selling pressure accentuated in the noon trades as investors took to across the board risk aversion. However, the bourses recovered from the lows of the day but could not succeed in minimizing the huge losses by the end of trading session.

FII Activity (15th Feb 2017)

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4397.88 crore against gross selling of Rs 4414.31 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 16.43 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1908.56 crore with gross sales of Rs 841.88 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1066.68 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Future Levels 

Support 8720 and resistance at 8850.

Break and sustain below 8720 will take it to 8680—8650 and then to 8600 else could touch its resistance level if 8850 again.

Further upside rally will see above 8850

Bank Nifty Future Levels

Support at 19900 and resistance at 20650.

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 20650, further upside rally will see on close above 20650 else could touch its support level of 19900

Looks weak only below 19900

Today's Top Pick

Jet Airways

Below 350 panic likely to remain continue till 340—330 further downside panic if close below 330.

Resistance and stop loss above 370

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 15 Feb. 17

Gold futures ended lower on Tuesday as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies after US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said the central bank will likely need to raise interest rates at an upcoming meeting with the economy expanding further. The Federal Reserve chair struck a more hawkish tone than investors had expected, although she did flag considerable uncertainty over economic policy under the new Trump administration. Meanwhile, the Labour Department released a report showing that US producer prices rose by more than expected in the month of January. The Labour Department reported its producer price index for final demand climbed by 0.6 percent in January after rising by 0.2 percent in December. Economists had expected prices to increase by 0.3 percent

Crude oil futures made some recovery on Tuesday and ended higher ahead of US inventory data. The API will be reporting its figures for inventories at the end of last week late on Tuesday, while official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due on Wednesday. Last week, crude oil inventories in the U.S. jumped by 13.8 million barrels, inventories have been surging of late, and are expected to rise further. Meanwhile, the EIA has said that US oil production is projected to rise by 80,000 barrels a day in March at 4.873 million barrels per day.

Copper futures ended lower on Tuesday on hopes strike talks would restart at the world's biggest copper mine in Chile. Striking workers at Chile's massive Escondida copper mine have accepted a government invitation to try to resume dialogue with mine operator BHP Billiton as the strike entered its sixth day on Tuesday. Also pressuring base metals was a stronger dollar, which rebounded after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said it would be unwise to wait too long to raise US interest rates. However, persistent supply issues in Indonesia, where an export ban remained in place, capped some losses.

Technical Level

Gold

Support at 28900 and Resistance at 28200

Traders can trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation. 

Anything seems will update.

Silver 

Support at 42200 and Resistance at 42750

Close above 42750 will take it to 43300---43800+ mark else could touch its support level if 42200 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 42200

Crude oil

Support at 3520 and Resistance at 3600

Break and sustain below 3520 will take 3840—3450 else could touch its resistance level of 3600 again.

Looks positive only above 3600

Copper

Support at 400 and resistance at 409---415

Trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation

Major Economic Data

    

07:00 P.M Core Retail Sales m/m:  Previous 0.2%, Forecast 0.4%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Core retail sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07:00 P.M Retail Sales m/m:  Previous 0.6%, Forecast 0.1%, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Retail sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

07:00 P.M Empire State Manufacturing Index: Forecast 6.5 Previous 7.2 Actual??

Impact – Increase in Empire State Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

09:30 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous 13.8M, Forecast 3.75M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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JSPL Q3 Result update

 JSPL

Shares of Jindal Steel & Power (JSPL) gained as much as 6.53 per cent in morning trade on Wednesday after the net loss of the company narrowed to Rs 455 crore for the quarter ended December 31, 2016 against net loss of Rs 882 crore in the corresponding quarter last year. 

The Naveen Jindal-led firm had clocked a net loss of Rs 882 crore in the corresponding quarter in 2015-16. 

Consolidated gross sales of the company stood at Rs 5,849.70 crore, up 22.84 per cent YoY.

Technical Levels for JSPL

Support at 85.50 and Resistance at 96.25

Trend looks positive …. There consecutives close + weekly close above 96.25 will take it to 100---105 and then to 120+ mark else could touch its support level of 85.50.

Looks weak below 85.50

More will update soon!!

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मौसम : मानसून को लेकर पैदा हुई आशंका, फिर आ रहा है अलनीनो

मानसून सीजन के दौरान कम बरसात के लिए जिम्मेवार मौसमी बदलाव अलनीनो के इस साल फिर आने की आशंका से देश में 2017 मानसून सीजन में बारिश की कमी की आशंका बढ़ गई है, हालांकि जबतक अलनीनो का असर दिखना शुरू होगा तबतक देश में मानसून सीजन खत्म होने की ओर होगा। 2014 और 2015 में अलनीनो की वजह से देश में मानसून सीजन के दौरान सामान्य के मुकाबले कम बरसात दर्ज की गई थी और सूखा घोषित हुआ था।

हालांकि मौसम विभाग ने कहा है कि अलनीनो को लेकर अभी किसी भी तरह की भविष्यवाणी करना जल्दबाजी होगा, मौसम विभाग में क्लाइमेट रिसर्च विभाग के मुखिया ए के सहाय के मुताबिक अलनीनो की वजह से मानसून को लेकर कोई भी भविष्यवाणी करना अभी जल्दबाजी होगा, मौसम विभाग के मुताबिक इसके लिए अप्रैल तक का इंतजार करना होगा। 

2014 में अलनीनो की वजह से मानसून सीजन के दौरान औसत के मुकाबले 88 फीसदी और 2015 में सिर्फ 86 फीसदी बरसात हुई थी। मानसून सीजन में अगर बरसात 90 फीसदी से कम होती है तो सूखाग्रस्त घोषित कर दिया जाता है। 2016 में अलनीनो के विपरीत लानीना का प्रभाव देखने को मिला था, लानीना की वजह से बरसात ज्यादा होती है, इसी वजह से 2016 में औसत बारिश दर्ज की गई थी।

ऐसा अनुमान लगाया जा रहा था कि 2017 में भी लानीना का प्रभाव बना रहेगा लेकिन अब दुनियाभर के मौसम वैज्ञानिक मान रहे हैं कि लानीना का प्रभाव खत्म हो चुका है और 2017 में अलनीनो की शुरुआत हो जाएगी। 

Source: MarketTimesTv

More will update soon!!

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