Fundamental Aspect
Mentha Oil futures prices are expected to trade within a range during today’s trading session. India contributes around 80% to the total global mentha oil production. Total global production stood at around 48,000 tonnes, out of which India produces between 30,000-40,000 tonnes. According to estimates, menthe oil production in India for crop year 2016-17 will be around 38,000 tonnes. As on 07th September 2017 stock positions of mentha in MCX accredited warehouses were around 11163 drums which is 136 drums less in comparison to previous day while in process were 396 drums, which is same against the previous day.
Soybean futures traded marginally lower on reports of arrival of new season soybean in Madhya Pradesh. Though, some losses were capped on improved physical demand from oil mills in the country. The total area under soybean has declined this year due to a fall in acreage in Madhya Pradesh, the largest producer, because of poor rains in the state so far. The area coverage under soybean, as on 1st Sep, is reported down 7.2 % at 105.2 lakh hectares compared to 113.3 lakh hectares at the same period last year, as per the latest government data. As per SOPA, arrivals of soybean were at 74 lakh tonnes (lt) in Oct-Jul, up from 54.5 lt a year ago, while stocks with farmers are at 30.9 lt, up from 796,000 tn a year ago.
Guar futures traded marginally lower from last couple of days on the back of excess rain notices in major producing area coupled with profit booking activity also marked at higher levels. In the medium term, guar futures are likely to remain limited on lower level’s buying. Rising crop failure concerns likely to spur speculators to enlarge long positions at futures platform. Cumulative monsoon rainfall in Bikaner, Ganganager and Hanumangargh has been below normal till second half of Aug recorded at -7%, -32% and -18% of LPA. Besides, reports of crop damage in northern Gujarat and lower acreages in Haryana could influence prices positively.
Turmeric futures traded lower for the day as market participants are booking their profits due to improved rains in Turmeric growing areas during week ending 30th August. As per the data release by the government, the exports during the first quarter of FY 2017-18 is down 10% to 33,323 tonnes, compared to the last year exports volume for the same period. The production estimate of turmeric for 2016-17 is pegged at 11.32 lakh tonnes by government in 3rd advance estimate higher from 9.43 lakh tonnes in 2015-16. For 2017-18, turmeric sowing in Telangana, as on 16th August, down 1% to 44,411 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 44,919 hectares.
Technical Aspect (Oct)
Jeera
Support at 19050 and Resistance at 19550.
Break and sustain below 19050 will take it to 18750—18500 and then 18200 mark else could touch its resistance level of 19550.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19550.
Trade safely with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4720 and Resistance at 4800.
Break and sustain above 4800 will take it to 4860---4890 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4720.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4720 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support is at 7550 and Resistance is at 7900--8000.
Break and sustain below 7550 will take it to 7420—7350 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 7900.
Fresh buying can be seen above 8000.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support is at 3800 and Resistance is 3950
If prices unable to breach its support level of 3800 then we can see good upside in it till 3950.Break and sustain above 3950 will take it to 4050--4120 and then 4200++ mark in near term.
Fresh selling can be seen below 3800.
Trade with levels only.
Guar gum (Oct)
Support is 8050 and Resistance is at 8350.
Break and sustain above 8350 will take it to 8520—8650 and the 8800++ mark in near term could touch its support level of 8050.
Fresh selling can be seen below 8050 only.
Trade with levels only.
Chana
Support seen at 6050 and Resistance is at 6250.
Either side break or close will set the further trend in it.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 6250 only.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3780 and resistance is at 3850.
Break and sustain below 3780 will take it to 3730---3680 and then 3650 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3850.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3850.
Trade with levels only.
Soybean
Support seen at 3050 and Resistance is 3155.
Break and sustain above 3155 will take it to 3190---3240 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3050.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3050 only.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Support is 1180 and Resistance is 1230.
Look positive on chart and likely to touch 1230. Break and close above 1230 will volume will take it to 1280---1320+++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 1180.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1180 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Holding long from 521 and made a high of 536.2 today.
Support is 529 and Resistance is 537.
Break and sustain above 537 will take it to 542—548 and 553++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 529.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 529 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
