Fundamental Aspect
Soybean October futures traded almost flat on reports of higher imports of edible oil into the country in last one month denting the impact of hike in import duty of edible oil. However, reports of less planting and deficient monsoon rains in the soybean producing areas is keeping the prices just above MSP. As per the latest government data, the area coverage under soybean, as on 11th August, is reported down 9.22% at 101.59 lakh hectares as compared with the 111.91 lakh hectares at the same period last year.
Chana futures traded with flat with positive bias during the session. Stockists have increased their buying position due to festive demand from dal millers as well as there has been pick-up in demand from retailers against restricted supplies from producing regions have pushed prices of pulses upside. Food grain output in the ongoing 2017-18 kharif season is likely to surpass last year’s record of 138.04 million tonnes due to higher acreage and good monsoon for the second straight year. Pulses covered 121.28 lakh hectares as against 116.95 lakh hectare during the same period. Looking at above mentioned factors Chana is expected to trade with upside bias in near trading session.
Jeera futures traded higher on lower arrivals as the jeera production in India fell by 13 % year-on-year basis to 3.87 lakh tons in 2016-17. Moreover, rising demand at the spot market ahead of the festival season too fuelled the uptrend. The prices have been quite volatile on reports of lower arrivals in Gujarat on expectation of damage to stored jeera due to heavy rains but fresh selling in the far month contract (Sep contract) is keeping the prices down. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during in July dropped to 3,668 tonnes as compared with the June arrival data. In June, arrival recorded at 8,072 tonnes. As per the latest data release by government, Jeera exports during first five months in 2017 is 5039 tonnes, which is noted up 9.7% compared to last year exports volume for the same period.
The government has hiked the import duty on crude palm oil from 7.5% to 15% and on refined palm oil to 25% from 15%. As per notification issued by the Central Board of Excise and Customs, the import duties on other crude edible oils like soya and sunflower have been raised to 17.5% from 12.5%.The hike in import duty of crude and refined palm oil will help restrict cheaper imports from Malaysia and Indonesia and benefit farmers which are in distress due to fall in prices of oilseeds below Minimum Support Price (MSP) because of bumper production.
Mentha oil futures traded higher on MCX as speculators enlarged positions amid pick-up in demand from consuming industries at domestic spot market. Besides, restricted supplies from the major producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh too supported the uptrend.
Technical Aspect (Sep)
Jeera
Support at 19150 and Resistance at 19650
Close above 19650 will take it to 19950—20250 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 19150.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19150.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4700.
Break and close above 4700 with volume will take it to 4780---4850++ mark in near term else could touch its support level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Turmeric... Not able to breach 8000 and crashed vertically. Downside target intact 6700---6300
Revise stop loss at cost to cost
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3750 and Resistance at 4000
If not able to breach 4000 then will see sharp downside panic till 3750 and then to 3600---3450 mark in days to come
Fresh buying do only close above 4000 mark
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Below 4550 will see more downside panic in it. Downside target 4200---3900 mark.
Revise stop loss above 4800 on closing basis.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support seen at 3650 and resistance IS at 3765
Break and sustain above 3765 will take it to 3830---3880 and then 3950++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3650 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3650 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
