Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded under pressure on good sowing progress in the current kharif crop but, closed higher for the week on expectation that the Minimum Support Prices (MSP) for soybean may increase by Rs. 175 per quintal to Rs. 2,950.As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during last week down by 50% to 21,680 tonnes as compared to 43,859 tonnes in the previous week. Area under the soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was at 26,900 ha till last week, up 16.5% on year. Sowing is yet to commence in some key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the oilseed is typically sown after the first monsoon showers. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive.
Jeera futures traded higher from last couple of days on expectation of steady physical demand and expectation of continue in good exports and diminishing stocks in the Exchange warehouse. The jeera arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year. As per the trader source, about 10,688 tonnes of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17 (Dept of commerce, GOI). The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse are dropping since last 15 days. It now 1,122 tonnes as on Jun 09, fall from 1,716 tonnes two weeks back. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,472 tonnes.
Turmeric traded higher due to rising physical demand and market arrivals are diminishing. However, the trend seems to be sideways on reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas. Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per the trader source, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. On the export front, country exported about 1.11 lakh tonnes in 2016/17 up by 30% compared to last year exports of 85,412 tonnes.
Government’s wheat procurement has touched 30.1 million tonnes (MT) so far in the ongoing rabi 2017-18 MY, crossing the last year’s total purchase of 22.9 MT. About 11.7 MT of wheat has been procured from Punjab, 7.4 MT from Haryana, 6.72 MT from Madhya Pradesh, 3 MT from Uttar Pradesh and 1.17 MT from Rajasthan so far this marketing year. The wheat marketing year normally runs from April to March. But the procurement this year was undertaken a fortnight early by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as well as state agencies. The government procures wheat from farmers at the minimum support price (MSP). The government has set a procurement target of 33 MT for 2017-18 on the back of record output. Further, wheat production target is kept at a record 97.44 MT for 2016-17 crop year, much higher than the actual output of 93.50 MT last year.
Technical Aspect: (July Contract)
Soybean
Our Buy call from 2770 to 2850 proven great and made a high of 2862 yesterday.
What to expect???
Support is 2750 and resistance is 2865
Either side decisive break or close will decide the further trend.
Trade with levels only
Soyaref
Soyaref has support at 625 and resistance of 635
Break and close above 635 will take 642---645+++ mark else could touch its support level of 625 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 625.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Support is 4600 and resistance is 5000
Trade with levels only and wait for confirmation
Jeera
Support is 17950 and resistance is at 18600
Close above 18600 will take it to 19000---19300 and then to 19700 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17950 again.
Fresh selling can be seen below 17950.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Our buy call from 3550 to 3638 proven great....
Now what to expect???
Hurdle and target intact 3680. Close above 3680 will take to 3780—3850+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3540.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3540 mark
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support at 5380 and Resistance at 5620.
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
Cocudakl
Our buy call from 1690 proven great and made a high of 1735 today.
Now what to expect??
Support 1690 and resistance at 1750.
Break and sustain above 1750 will take it to 1790—1820 and then to 1850+++ mark else could touch its support level of 1690.
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1690.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (June)
Our buy call from 910 to 932 proving great and made a high of 927 yesterday.
Hurdle at 927 and support at 886.
Close above 927 will see sharp upside rally till 948 and then to 970+++ mark
Fresh selling will do only close below 886
Trade with levels only.
CPO (June)
Price unable to hold below its key support of 488.50 and bounce back sharply.
Now what to expect???
Support is 486 and resistance is 496.
Looks positive and weekly close 496 will take it to 502---510 and the 516+++ mark in near term
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 486.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
