Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures traded lower as speculators trimmed their positions due to higher supplies and lower demand noticed in the domestic spot market. Reports showing that arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increased to 1.28 lt as compared to the first half. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reported to 23,000 ha so far against the 20,000 ha marked a year ago. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the second half of May increase to 1.28 lt as compared with the first half of reading. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive.
India may export 1.5 MT of soymeal during the MY 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) lower from 2 MT expected in the beginning of the season. China’s crushing margins for soybeans fell to the weakest since Sep 2014 last week as soymeal stocks rose to their highest since mid-2012 amid sluggish end user demand, pulling down prices for the livestock feed. As per the IGC report, soybean crop forecast for 2016-17 rises by 5 MT to a record of 350 MT due to better yields in South America.
Crude palm oil futures traded down as traders offloaded their positions due to subdued demand in spot markets. Furthermore, higher supplies from major producing areas and weak trend at overseas markets too fuelled the downtrend. There is report of higher edible oil stocks in the domestic market. The government increases the base import prices of Crude palm oil by $9/tonne and RBD by $6/tonne for 2nd half of May. As per SEA report, During Nov’16 – Apr’17, Import of palm oil decreased to 43 lt from 43.4 lt during the same period of last year. The overall stock of edible oil as on 1st May, 2017 has increased by 207,000 tonnes to 212 lakh tonnes compared to stocks on 1st Apr., 2017.
Jeera futures traded lower due to easing demand from retailers and stockists at the spot market. Further, sufficient stocks position following increased arrivals from producing regions too fuelled the downtrend. As per the Exchange circular, there will be an additional margin of 5% on both sides from today (Monday, 29, May 2017), in additional to existing additional margin. As per the trader source, about 8661 tonnes of jeera arrived in May (1-25) compared to 29,322 in April (1-25). On the export front, country the exports increase by 29.6% to 1,08,513 tonnes in first 11 month of MY 2016-17 .The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse is reducing to 1,395 tonnes on May 24, fall from 2,092 tonnes a week ago. However, on 1st May the stock was close to 964 tonnes. Last year, stocks were higher at 4,101 tonnes.
Coriander futures traded marginally lower as speculators offloaded their holdings amid weak demand in the spot market. Further, higher supplies from major producing belts also fuelled the downtrend.
Technical Aspect: (June Contract)
Soyabean
Our sell call from 2700 to 2660 proven great and touched a low of 2663 today
Support is 2660 and resistance is at 2730---2780
Below 2660… Panic likely to remain continue till 2620---2580 and then to 2550 mark else could touch its resistance of 2730---2780 again.
Be cautious at lower levels. Any reversal seems will update.
Soyaref
Not able to breach 641 and crashed vertically. Told to sell below 635 mark and made a low of 614.20 today.
Now what to expect???
Trend still looks weak and will see sharp downside panic till 609---605 and then to 590 mark
Hurdle and stop loss above 525
Trade with levels only.
Guarseed
Our sell call from 3470 to 3350 proven great and touched a fresh low of 3394 today.
Now what to expect???
Support at 3390 and Resistance at 3500
Close below 3390 will take it to 3350---3320 and then to 3210 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 3500 mark again
Further upside rally will see above 3500 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Support at 4925---4800 and Resistance is 5060.
Close below 4925 will take it to 4840—4800. More and more downside panic will see only weekly close below 4800 mark else could touch its resistance level of 5060 again.
Fresh buying can be seen only above 5060.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support is 17300 and resistance is at 18000.
Looks week and close below 17300 will take it to 16800---16450 and then to 16000 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 18000 again.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Broken decisively its support of 3500 and touched a low of 3478 today.
Now support at 3475 and Resistance 3580
Looks weak and daily close below 3475 will take to 3435---3400 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3580 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 3580.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Support is 5230 and resistance is at 5480.
Trend looks weak and close below 5230 will take it to 5050---4900 mark in days to come else could test its resistance level of 5480 again.
Trade with levels only.
Cocudakl
Support 1800 and resistance at 1880
Looks weak and close below 1800 will take it to 1765—1730 and then to 1700 mark else could touch its resistance level of 1880 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 1880 mark.
Mentha oil (June)
Our buy call from 916 to 945 proven great and made a high of 944 yesterday.
Now what to expect???
Support at 890 and resistance at 945---960
Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation
CPO
Our sell call from 522 to 511.60 proven great.
Now what to expect???
Support at 510 and Resistance at 516
Looks weak and close below 510 will take it to 505---502 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 516 again.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 516
Castor Seed
Support at 4250 and Resistance at 4400
Trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation. Anything seems will update
More will update soon!!
