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Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Update on Nifty future levels of the day 9th November 2016




Nifty 8543 /Sensex 27591/ Bank Nifty 19500

 31 Advances /19 Declines/ 1 Unchanged

"Govt to discontinue Rs 500 & Rs 1,000 notes from midnight: Modi"



*In a bid to tackle the menace of counterfeit currency and black money, the government is removing from circulation Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes beginning midnight, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced Tuesday evening addressing the nation.


-Currency notes of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 will be just paper with no value,” Modi said. He assured that citizens’ who are in possession of these notes can deposit them with a bank or post offices and get their money in other notes. “People can deposit notes of Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 in their banks from November 10 till December 30, 2016,” he affirmed.


Also, citizens can continue to use notes of other denominations, he said.


-Besides, the Reserve Bank of India will issue new note worth Rs 2,000 and Rs 500, he said.


-During the speech, the Prime Minister expressed confidence that the measure will help India battle corruption. He questioned the means through which terrorist establishments get funds, adding that circulation of huge amount of black money is resulting in a parallel economy. The government wants to curb such transactions, Modi said.


-To address the problems this unexpected decision brings in, Modi said, petrol, diesel and CNG stations will accept Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 notes for the next 72 hours. Besides, transport booking counters for rail, road and airlines will accept old notes till midnight of November 11. Even hospitals will accept the two notes, Modi said.


-The government has given 50 days for people to exchange the notes at banks and post offices. Those unable to deposit Rs 1,000 and Rs 500 notes by December 30 due to various reason will be allowed to can change them at banks till March 31, 2017 by furnishing relevant ID proof, Modi said.



All Eyes on US Elections…..Its Clinton VS Trump to the wire


“Late buying lifts Sensex 132 pts ahead of US election outcome”


Buying in late trade helped the BSE Sensex gain 188 points intraday Tuesday, especially ahead of the outcome of the 2016 US presidential elections. The market was rangebound before gaining strength in last hour of trade.


The 30-share BSE Sensex rose 132.15 points to 27591.14 while the 50-share NSE Nifty was up 46.50 points at 8543.55 after hitting an intraday high of 8559.40.


The rally in late trade was largely on hopes of Hillary Clinton becoming the 45th US president but overall investors are still in wait-and-watch mode.


Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton continues to be the favorite, said Keith Parker of Barclays who is overweight on emerging markets. The Republicans will control the House, which reduces chances of aggressive change in policies like taxes and regulations, he added.


The broader markets also gained strength with the BSE Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 0.4 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively despite weak breadth. About 1523 shares declined against 1359 advancing shares on the BSE.


Tata Motors retained its top position in the buying list throughout the session today, rising 6.5 percent as Credit Suisse believe the GBP depreciation will drive a multi-year outperformance for the stock (JLR). The brokerage house has upgraded it to outperform with increased target price at Rs 720 (from Rs 510 earlier), representing a 40 percent upside.


However, Maruti Suzuki fell 1 percent after Credit Suisse has downgraded the stock as most positives seem priced in. 


It says further upgrades look unlikely given that 18-20 percent volume growth in FY18 is already baked in. It raised FY17 EPS by around 8 percent (Q2 results) but broadly maintained FY18/FY19 EPS and target price at Rs 6,000.



Key Results Today

Aarti Drugs

Accelya Kale

Apollo Tyres

Bajaj Steel

Bosch

Capital First

Caplin Labs

Dhampur Sugar

Edelweiss

Godrej Prop

Indian Bank

JK Tyre & Ind

Kakatiya Cement

Karnataka Bank

Kesoram

L&T Infotech

Lupin

NCC

Oracle Fin Serv

Orient Cement

Parag Milk Food

Pidilite Ind

Power Grid Corp

Ramco Cements

Ramco System

REC

Rico Auto

Satin Credit

UCO Bank

Ujjivan Financi

Zandu Realty




RESULT ANALYSIS & POLL:



IMPORTANT RESULT:LUPIN



EXPECTATAION: Lupin Q2 profit seen up 80%, Gavis may support revenue growth



Analysis


- Healthcare company Lupin is expected to show strong growth in July-September quarter due to US business. Profit is seen rising 80 percent year-on-year to Rs 736.5 crore but interest cost may limit bottomline growth, according to analysts polled by CNBC-TV18.


- Revenue is likely to jump 32.4 percent to Rs 4,938.1 crore, led by by consolidation of Gavis (acquired in 2015) and buoyant growth in US generics (driven by diabetes drugs Glumetza & Fortamet generic).


- However, sequential US growth can be sluggish due to higher competition in Fortamet and Glumetza. US contribution stood at 51 percent to sales.


- Analysts expect India business to recover to grow at 12-14 percent YoY to around Rs 950-1,000 crore for the quarter while Japan may grow around 12-15 percent in Yen.


- Operating profit is seen rising 83 percent year-on-year to Rs 1,229.5 crore and margin may expand 780 basis points to 28 percent in Q2.




-TECHNICAL LEVELS FOR LUPIN



Lupin has been in range bound mode for quite some time with pharma sector under pressure .


CMP 1508 Lupin has immediate resistance at 1530--1540 and immediate support at 1485—1480.


Above 1540 next resistance seen around 1465 and above 1585 it positionally very strong.


Below 1480 its weak as lower support seen around 1455—1440.




OUR RECOMMENDATIONS:



Our call to buy Tech Mahindra (FUT) around 453 proved great as it made high of 456  before settling at  454.35 on closing. We booked full profit around 455
[Profit of 1100 on 1 Lot]


Our call to buy Tata Motor (D) (FUT) around 342—340 proved great as it flared and made high of 347.70 before settling at 346.75 on closing. We booked full profit around 343.
[Profit of 2100 on 1 Lot]



Now what to expect??






Nifty future levels 



We clearly indicated that there is something wrong with Nifty as stocks looks extreme weak. SGX Nifty down more than 200 points. Close below 8500 will take to 8150. 







Hurdle intact 8600



*Decision to curb 500 and 1000 rupee note will be negative reaction on reality and tourism sector. We will expect steep fall in real estate stocks. So have a close watch on it. 

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More will update soon!!