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Friday, August 19, 2016

Currency Outlook 19 Aug 2016




Dollar/Rupee


Dollar/rupee ended up Thursday on bunched up dollar demand from investors as Indian foreign exchange market remained closed for holiday on Wednesday.
Technical, USDINR traded in between 66.85-67.05 small range and settled at 66.90 compare to previous close of 66.8650. A short term consolidation above 66.85 is creating probability for momentum upside move towards 67.15-67.25 in USDINR. 
On the other hand, a closing below 66.85 only could result downside move towards 66.65-66.50.




EUR/Rupee



Euro extend gains for the fifth consecutive trading session Thursday tracking weakness in the greenback on fading hopes of a Federal Reserve rate hike in the near term after minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting showed policymakers would go slow in terms of a near-term rate hike.

EURINR settled with a gain of 0.31% at 75.7350.  A Long bullish candle stick formation is indicating for further upside move in EURINR.   
Further, pair would need to trade above 75.95 in order to test 76.10-76.35. Stop loss below 75.80.




GBP/INR



Pound traded near two-week high Thursday after better than expected UK retail sales data amid weak dollar. Pound extended gains by breaching its highest level since Jul 5 after strong UK retail sales data amid tracking weakness in dollar
GBPINR witnessed 1.26% positive rally and settled at 88.0125 levels.  In near term GBPINR may take momentum upside move and may test 88.50-88.75 and above following to long bullish candle stick formation on EOD chart. Buy above 88.15 Target 88.50-88.70. Stop loss below 88.00




JPY/INR

Yen traded down for the third-straight session Thursday as dollar weakened after a Federal Reserve's July meeting minutes showed cautious stance by the US central Bank on interest rate.
JPYINR has stalled its recent bullish trend and settled at 66.69 down 0.26%.  A bearish harami candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for momentum correction in the pair. 
 On the other hand, strong resistance is seen at 67.00 and sustain trade above only will expect to test 67.45-67.70.



§  Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today



Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
10:00am
JPY
All Industries Activity m/m
0.90%
-1.00%
Positive
11:30am
EUR
German PPI m/m
0.10%
0.40%
Negative
2:00pm
GBP
Public Sector Net Borrowing
-2.3B
7.3B
Negative













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