USDINR slightly down as BoE hints of rate cut
Dollar/rupee and the dollar index was little changed Friday
after Bank of England Governor hinted of at an interest rate cut following the
surprised exit of United Kingdom from the European Union in a referendum last
week.
On the EOD chart a formation of long bearish candle stick is
indicating for bearishness in the pair, however there is massive support around
67.65 which is coincided with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 29 Feb-20
April fall from 69.5650 to 67.00 and pair would need to trade below this level
in order to test 67.45-67.35.
Dollar index, which weighs greenback against a basket of six
currencies, was little changed during early Asian trade Friday and traded at
95.85 compared to 95.98 at close of New York time on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, investors ignored US Labor Department report showing
that initial jobless claims rose by slightly more than expected in the week
ended June 25th.
The report said initial jobless claims rose to 268,000, an
increase of 10,000 from the previous week's revised level of 258,000.
Economists had expected jobless claims to edge up to 266,000.
Pound slipped more than 1%, as Carney sends strong hints of upcoming rate cuts
-GBP pared some losses after re-testing 31-year lows on
Thursday, as Bank of England governor Mark Carney sent strong hints that the
Bank of England could ease monetary policy later this summer to help prevent
irreparable harm to the British economy in the wake of last week's Brexit
decision.
In overseas market, GBP pared its gains after BOE Governor
dovish remarks. BOE Governor comments that more stimuli needed over the summer,
snapped GBP recovery and put EUR also under pressure.
Trend is Bearish in GBPINR and it expected to test 89.90-89.60
very soon as it broke its immediate support of 90.75.
Sell around 90.50-90.60 Stop loss above 90.80.
EUR gave up 0.50% following BOE comments
Euro rebounds during afternoon trades after Eurozone reported
better than expected CPI inflation for June.Euro also strengthened on reports
by Reuters noted that the European Central Bank was in no rush to push forward
more easing following the recent 'Brexit' vote as long as markets remain calm.
EURINR traded slightly positive and settled at 75.51
levels. Intraday price
action resulted in formation of high wave candle stick pattern which is
indicating for indecisive trend in days to come.
Near term
resistance is seen at 75.80 and possible correction is expected to come on rise
around 75.65-75.70 unless it gives a closing above this resistance.
Japanese yen fall, expect to take support from 65.80-65.70.
JPY/INR extended its fall for fourth day as weak economic data
lowered demand for the greenback even while investors await US Fed and BOJ
policy meetings later this month to give more clarity post Brexit.
JPYINR extended its fall fourth consecutive day and settled at
65.8975, down 0.48%.Buy strategy given around 66.00 was failed to test 66.50
levels. On the EOD chart
formation of inverted hammer candle stick is indicating for trend reversal in
JPYINR, and any dip towards 65.80-65.85 could attract short term buying
activities for the target 66.25-66.55 and above.
On the downside massive support is seen at 65.70 and sustain
trade below only will expect to test 65.54-65.30.
Major
Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
6:30am
|
CNY
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
50
|
50.1
|
Negative
|
|
CNY
|
Non-Manufacturing PMI
|
-
|
53.1
|
-
|
|
|
7:15am
|
CNY
|
Caixin Manufacturing PMI
|
49.1
|
49.2
|
Negative
|
|
7:30am
|
JPY
|
Final Manufacturing PMI
|
47.9
|
47.8
|
Positive
|
|
10:30am
|
JPY
|
BOJ Core CPI y/y
|
0.80%
|
0.90%
|
Negative
|
|
JPY
|
Consumer Confidence
|
41.1
|
40.9
|
Positive
|
|
|
12:45pm
|
EUR
|
Spanish Manufacturing PMI
|
52.1
|
51.8
|
Positive
|
|
1:15pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Manufacturing PMI
|
52.7
|
52.4
|
Positive
|
|
1:20pm
|
EUR
|
French Final Manufacturing PMI
|
47.9
|
47.9
|
Neutral
|
|
1:25pm
|
EUR
|
German Final Manufacturing PMI
|
54.5
|
54.4
|
Positive
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Final Manufacturing PMI
|
52.6
|
52.6
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
Italian Monthly Unemployment Rate
|
11.70%
|
11.70%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Manufacturing PMI
|
50
|
50.1
|
Negative
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
Unemployment Rate
|
10.10%
|
10.20%
|
Negative
|
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Final Manufacturing PMI
|
51.4
|
51.4
|
Neutral
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing PMI
|
51.3
|
51.3
|
Neutral
|
|
USD
|
Construction Spending m/m
|
0.60%
|
-1.80%
|
Positive
|
|
|
USD
|
ISM Manufacturing Prices
|
63.9
|
63.5
|
Positive
|
|
|
All Day
|
USD
|
Total Vehicle Sales
|
17.3M
|
17.4M
|
Negative
|
