Gold 31205/Silver 43690/ Crude Oil 3319 / Copper 325.30 /Soyabean 3755/
Top Gainers
Natural Gas – gains 2.28% LTP – 197.80
Soyabean (oct) – gains 1.54% LTP – 3813
Silver – gains 1.15% - 43690
Top Losers
Crude Oil – Losses 0.51% LTP – 3319
Gold – Losses 0.34% LTP - 31205
Nickle – Losses 0.06% LTP – 639.30
MCX/ COMEX
Bullions
Gold prices were lower on Thursday, holding on to modest overnight losses, as investors continued to digest the political and economic aftermath of the U.K.’s decision to leave the European Union.
Former London mayor Boris Johnson abruptly pulled out of the race to become Britain's next prime minister on Thursday, in a shock move that upturned a political order shaken by last week's vote to leave the European Union.
Meanwhile, Britain’s Justice Secretary Michael Gove, one of the main campaigners to take Britain out of the EU, said on Thursday he would run to become prime minister. Interior Minister Theresa May, who campaigned to remain in the EU, also announced her candidacy to lead the party.
Other Conservative Party politicians to declare they are standing to replace Cameron so far are Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb and Defence Secretary Liam Fox.
Gold shed $5.15, or 0.39%, to trade at $1,321.75 a troy ounce .A day earlier, prices tacked on $9.00, or 0.68%.
Prices of the yellow metal surged to a 27-month peak of $1,362.60 last Friday, after a shock U.K. vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into bullion and other safe haven assets.
The news raised concerns that other countries might leave the union and that global growth would come under significant pressure, while the actual timeframe of the U.K. departure from the EU remained unclear.
But so far the U.K. has refrained from invoking Article 50, the treaty measure that would jump start the two year deadline for the U.K. to leave the European Union.
The precious metal is up almost 25% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth in wake of the Brexit vote and as market players pushed back expectations for the next U.S. rate hike.
Market players all but ruled out further rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year in the aftermath of Britain’s shock vote to leave the EU. In fact, futures markets are now reflecting a chance that the Fed could actually cut interest rates before the end of the year, instead of hiking them.
Data released earlier showed that weekly jobless claims rose by 10,000 last week to 268,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to increase by 9,000 to 267,000 from the previous week’s total of 258,000.
Silver gains momentum; near-term outlook bullish
The silver futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) jumped almost three per cent with an upward gap on Friday as the UK voted to leave the EU in a historic vote.
Subsequently, the global financial markets slumped and precious metals gained.
Last week, the MCX silver futures contract advanced 2.5 per cent, breaching a key resistance at ₹42,000 to close at ₹42,392 per kg.
After testing the resistance at 42,500 for two trading sessions, the contract breached it decisively by gaining ₹622 or 1.5 per cent to trade at ₹42,968 on Wednesday.
Both the medium and short-term trends are up for the contract. It trades well above its 21- and 50-day moving averages.
The indicators and oscillators in the daily chart are featuring in the positive territory. Traders with a short-term perspective can buy with a stop-loss at ₹41,900.
A strong break above the immediate resistance at ₹43,000 can take the contact higher to ₹44,000 in the coming week. Further rally beyond ₹44,000 can target ₹46,000 in the medium-term.
Key supports are at ₹42,000 and ₹41,000. The next important supports are at ₹40,000 and ₹38,500.
A tumble below the vital support at ₹40,000 will mar the short-term uptrend and drag the contract down to ₹38,500.On the global front, the silver spot price advanced 1.3 per cent amid volatility last week to close at $17.68 an ounce.
On Wednesday, the silver price surged 2.2 per cent breaching a key resistance at $18 to trade at $18.30 levels. This rally has strengthened the short-term uptrend that has been in place since early June low at $15.77.
The metal has immediate resistance at $18.5.
A conclusive rally above this level can take the silver price northwards to $18.7 and $19 in the short term.
Key supports to note are pegged at $18, $17.8 and $17.4.
Energy
Oil gives back half of Wednesday’s 4% rally as Brexit concerns persist
Oil prices added to overnight losses in North American trade on Thursday, giving back more than half of the prior session’s sharp rally as investors kept an eye on the fallout from the U.K.'s decision to leave the European Union.
Crude oil for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange slumped $1.18, or 2.37%, to trade at $48.70 a barrel by 13:37GMT, or 9:37AM ET.
A day earlier, New York-traded oil rallied $2.03, or 4.24%, the strongest daily advance since April, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. fell more than expected last week, while domestic crude output continued its decline.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels last week to 526.6 million. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock decline of 2.4 million barrels.
Meanwhile, U.S. crude production stood at 8.62 million barrels per day as of last week, down from a peak of over 9.6 million bpd last year.
Elsewhere, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery dropped $1.20, or 2.34%, to trade at $50.12 a barrel, after surging $2.06, or 4.18%, on Wednesday.
Fears of sharp production cuts from a looming strike by Norway's oil sector eased as output from the North Sea's biggest producer would only fall by about 7% in case of a walk-out, according to Norway's Petroleum Directorate.
About 7,500 workers on seven oil and gas fields in Norway could go on strike from Saturday if a new wage deal is not agreed before a Friday deadline.
Natural gas stay higher after bullish weekly storage data
U.S. natural gas futures held on to solid gains in North America trade on Thursday, after data showed that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose less than expected last week.
Natural gas for delivery in August on the New York Mercantile Exchange jumped 3.3 cent, or 1.15%, to trade at $2.896 per million British thermal units by 14:33GMT, or 10:33AM ET. Prices were at around $2.913 prior to the release of the supply data.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended June 24 rose by 37 billion cubic feet, below forecasts for an increase of 45 billion.
That compared with builds of 62 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 78 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.140 trillion cubic feet, 18.5% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 20.3% above the five-year average for this time of year.
A day earlier, gas futures rallied to $2.974, the most since May 2015, as hot summer temperatures across most parts of the U.S. raised expectations for power generation demand to meet air conditioning needs.
Updated weather forecasting models suggested that temperatures may be hotter than normal throughout most of the contiguous U.S. from July 8 through July 12.
Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning.
Natural gas prices are up nearly 45% since late May as expectations have grown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand.
Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Base Metals
Base metals prices looking brighter, with copper leading the way
Copper and nickel climbed to the highest levels in nearly eight weeks on Wednesday, bolstered by a softer dollar and fading fears about Britain's vote to exit the European Union. Zinc and lead touched three-week highs as the dollar gave up some of its gains made since the Brexit vote last week. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange hit a peak of $4,847.50 a tonne, the highest since May 5, building on a 2.3 percent gain in the previous session.
It seems that the Brexit issue is gradually taking a back seat on the metals markets, and so market participants are now focusing again more on fundamental data. In the case of many metals, the supply-demand situation points to higher metal prices over the course of this year.
After touching a low of $4,588 on Friday after the UK Brexit vote, copper has rallied more than 5 percent as investors bought futures to cancel short positions and hoped for more global stimulus measures. Beyond the short-term gyrations, the bias for copper is for it to still ease from here through the rest of the year.
Demand is positive but it's not spectacular and many signals point to a copper market that is well supplied. However, few investors disagree with forecasts that ample supply would knock the market in the second half of the year. There was concern that the world's biggest aluminium producer China, after signs of curbing output late last year, was gradually increasing production again.
Technical Levels.
Gold
Gold has a support at 31150 and resistance at 31400,
Close below 31150 will see further downside panic till 31080---31050 mark else it could test its resistance level of 31400 again.
Break and sustain above 31400 will take to 31600---31700 and then to 31850+ mark in days to come.
Trade safely with levels only
Silver
Silver has support at 43800 and resistance at 44600,
Looking positive on charts....it can touch 44600 marks
Break and sustain above 44600 will take to 45300---45800 mark in days to come. More and more upside rally will see only close below 46000 mark else it could test its support level of 43800 again.
Fresh sell only close below 43800 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Support at 3280 and Resistance at 3350
Close above 3350 will take to 3390 --3440 and then to 3480+ mark in days to come, else could test its support level of 3280.
Further panic will see only close below 3280 mark
Traders can trade with levels only
Copper
Support at 327 and Resistance at 332
Close above 332 will see further upside rally till 335---338 and then to 340+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 327 again.
Trade with levels only
Soyabean (Oct)
Support at 3600 and Resistance at 3800
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3600 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 3600 will take to 3450--3380 and then to 3250 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3800 again
Close above 3800 will see further upside rally till 3880---3940 mark. 3940 act as major hurdle in Soyabean
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick
Short Term Delivery Call
Buy Silver (Sept) above 45500. Stop loss 45000 Target 46600+
More will update soon!!
