Gold 30995/Silver 47300/ Crude Oil 3090/ Copper 334. /Soyabean 3771/
Top Gainers
Crude oil – gains – 1.44% LTP – 3090
Zinc– gains – 1.02% LTP – 147.90
Natural Gas – gains – 0.60% LTP – 184.30
Top Losers
Lead – Losses – 1.08% LTP –125.20
Nickel – Losses – 0.84% LTP – 685.90
Aluminium – Losses – 0.62% LTP – 114.40
Commodity Round UP
Bullions
Gold tumbles to 2-week lows after Bank of England holds fire on rates
Gold prices declined on Friday, after a number of upbeat U.S. economic reports suggested that economic growth regained speed in the second quarter.
Gold on the Comex division shed $4.80, or 0.36%, to settle at $1,327.40 a troy ounce by close of trade.
Prices of the yellow metal turned slightly higher in post-settlement trade after news broke of an apparent military coup in Turkey. But the coup attempt crumbled as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushed back to Istanbul from a Mediterranean holiday and urged people to take to the streets in support of his government against plotters he accused of trying to kill him.
Earlier, gold fell to the lowest levels of the session after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, as Americans bought motor vehicles and a variety of other goods, bolstering views that economic growth picked up in the second quarter.
Those expectations were further reinforced by other data on Friday showing that industrial production recorded its biggest increase in 11 months in June, driven by a surge in motor vehicle assembly. With domestic demand strengthening, inflation is also steadily rising.
The bullish data could allow the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates later this year, but much will depend on policymakers' assessment of the impact on the U.S. economy of Britain's June 23 vote to leave the European Union.
Three Federal Reserve policymakers on Thursday expressed the view that there was no hurry to raise U.S. interest rates in the wake of the U.K. decision to leave the European Union, despite signs that the U.S. economy is near full employment.
Interest rate futures are currently pricing in a 43% chance of a rate hike by December. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat to gold prices than a swift series of increases.
For the week, gold futures slumped $45.20, or 2.22%, the first weekly loss in seven weeks, as uncertainty around the implications of Britain's Brexit vote eased with the formation of a new government.
Prices surged to a more than two-year high of $1,377.50 earlier this month, as concerns surrounding global growth in wake of Britain’s vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into safe haven assets.
Gold is up nearly 25% so far this year, drawing support from fading expectations of a Fed rate hike and as expectations mounted that central banks around the world will step up monetary stimulus to counteract the negative economic shock from the Brexit vote.
Expectations of monetary stimulus tend to benefit gold, as the metal is seen as a safe store of value and inflation hedge.
Energy
Crude ticks up, capping volatile week as U.S. oil rigs move higher
Oil futures ended Friday’s session higher, as better-than-expected economic data from the U.S. and China bolstered the outlook for future energy demand.
Crude prices received a further boost in post-settlement trade after news broke of an apparent military coup in Turkey. But the coup attempt crumbled as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan rushed back to Istanbul from a Mediterranean holiday and urged people to take to the streets in support of his government against plotters he accused of trying to kill him. Earlier, oil prices hit session highs after data showed that U.S. retail sales rose more than expected in June, as Americans bought motor vehicles and a variety of other goods, bolstering views that economic growth picked up in the second quarter.
Those expectations were further reinforced by other data on Friday showing that industrial production recorded its biggest increase in 11 months in June, driven by a surge in motor vehicle assembly. With domestic demand strengthening, inflation is also steadily rising.
The New York Fed raised its third-quarter GDP growth estimate to a 2.6% rate from the 2.3% it projected a week ago. The economy grew at a 1.1% pace in the January-March quarter. Meanwhile, China's economy grew 6.7% in the second quarter from a year-ago, unchanged from the first quarter, data showed on Friday.
Analysts had expected it to dip to 6.6%. Also in China, fixed asset investment rose 9.0%, less than the 9.4% year-on-year gain seen in June, while industrial production gained 6.2%, better than 5.9% seen in the same period and retail sales rose 10.6%, a tad better than 10.0% seen.
The U.S. and China are the world’s two largest oil consuming nations. On the ICE Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for September delivery tacked on 24 cents, or 0.51%, to settle at $47.61 a barrel by close of trade. For the week, London-traded Brent futures rose $1.12, or 1.82%. Elsewhere, on the New York Mercantile Exchange, crude oil for delivery in August advanced 27 cents, or 0.59%, to end at $45.95 a barrel. On the week, New York-traded oil futures inched up 88 cents, or 1.19%.
Gains were limited amid signs of an ongoing recovery in U.S. drilling activity. Oilfield services provider Baker Hughes said late Friday that the number of rigs drilling for oil in the U.S. increased by six last week to 357, the third straight weekly gain and the sixth increase in seven weeks. The renewed gain in U.S. drilling activity fueled speculation that domestic production could be on the verge of rebounding in the weeks ahead, underlining worries over a supply glut.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, crude oil inventories declined by a less-thanexpected 2.5 million barrels last week to 521.8 million, which the EIA considered to be “historically high levels for this time of year”. In the week ahead, oil traders will be focusing on U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals.
Market players will also continue to monitor supply disruptions across the world for further indications on the rebalancing of the market.
Natural gas futures edge higher after weekly storage data
U.S. natural gas futures edged higher in North America trade on Thursday, despite data showing that natural gas supplies in storage in the U.S. rose more than expected last week. Natural gas for delivery in August on the New York Mercantile Exchange inched up 0.027 cents, or 0.99%, to trade at $2.754 per million British thermal units.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that natural gas storage in the U.S. in the week ended July 8 rose by 64 billion cubic feet, above forecasts for an increase of 59 billion. That compared with builds of 39 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 98 billion a year earlier and a fiveyear average of 77 billion cubic feet.
Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.243 trillion cubic feet, 15.6% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 18.1% above the five-year average for this time of year. Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.
Futures are up nearly 45% since late May as expectations have grown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand.
Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Agri Commodity Round
UP Southwest Monsoon to go mild across India
Country has witnessed a very active phase of the Southwest Monsoon, which has also been very productive one. Not only the rainfall deficiency of 11% in June was recovered, but the countrywide seasonal rainfall is now excess by 4%. As expected, July has performed extremely well so far. July is the rainiest month of the season which on an average records 289 mm of rain. With still two more days to go for reaching half of the month, country has also already recorded 145 mm of rain and is excess by 24%. Now as we proceed further, it is quite normal for Monsoon to go mild after witnessing such active to vigorous Monsoon conditions. According to Skymet Weather, the waxing and waning of the Monsoon season is a regular feature. The decrease in the rain activity is due to the weakening of the low pressure over Northwest Madhya Pradesh. Moreover, the monsoon trough along with this system is also showing a tendency to shift northwards towards the foothills of Himalayas. (Source: Skymet)
Vegetable oil imports up 15% in June
India's import of vegetable oils increased by 15 per cent to 11.69 lakh tonnes last month on rising shipments of refined palm oil, industry body SEA said, while seeking change in duty structure to protect domestic processors. Solvent Extractors' Association (SEA) demanded that duty difference between crude and refined vegetable oils should be increased from 7.5 per cent to 15 per cent. At present, import duty on crude edible oil is 12.5 per cent and refined edible oil at 20 per cent. "Import of vegetable oils during June, 2016 is reported at 11,69,456 tonnes compared to 10,16,297 tonnes in June, 2015," SEA said in a statement. (Source: PTI)
Mills see cut in cotton price as CAB revises estimates
The Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) has estimated a comfortable cotton supply position for the cotton season of 2015-16. The body has estimated the closing stock at 43 lakh bales as against its previous estimate of 35 lakh bales for the season. The area under cotton has also been revised to 119.10 lakh hectare as against its previous estimate of 118.81 lakh hectare for the 2016-17 season. M Senthilkumar, chairman, The Southern India Mills’ Association (SIMA), has stated that the cotton position in the domestic and international market is very comfortable. He has advised mills to avoid panic purchase as the traders are taking undue advantage and have increased the prices abnormally closer to R48,000 per candy as against R33,200 per candy that prevailed till April 2016. (Source: FE)
CAB estimates cotton output to drop 12% on lower acreage
The Cotton Advisory Board has lowered crop production estimate by 12 per cent to 338 lakh bales (lb) in 2015-16 cotton season against 386 lb recorded in the same period last year with farmers shifting to other remunerative crops. The area under cotton has dipped seven per cent to 119 lakh hectares (lh) against 128 lh registered in the same period last year, as per the third CAB meeting held in Mumbai on Wednesday. “The large scale speculation is driving up cotton prices with China declaring that it has already offloaded huge stocks, but India has enough inventories to meet the demand,” she said. In fact, Gupta added, cotton prices in the domestic market are expected to come down with rising imports. International cotton prices will also come under pressure as fresh cotton supply starts from October, she said. India’s cotton imports have already touched 15 lb (14 lb) and may hit 18 lakh bales in next three months, Gupta said. (Source: HBL)
Technical Levels.
Gold
Gold has a support at 30700 and resistance at 31100, three consecutive close + weekly close below 30700 will take it to 30300 levels and then to 30000 marks in days to come. Else it could test its resistance level of 31100.Further upside rally can be seen if weekly close above 31100 mark.
Trade with levels only
Silver
Support at 47000 and Resistance at 48000
Still looks weak and could test 47000 again. Break and sustain below 47000 will see more downside panic till 46800---46500 and then to 45800 mark in days to come
Else it could test its resistance level of 48000 again. Further upside rally will see only close above 48000 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Crude oil has support at 2990 and resistance at 3120.
Two consecutive + weekly close below 2990 will take it to 2900---2880 and then to 2850 mark else could test resistance level of 3120. Further upside rally can be seen if closes above 3120.
Copper
Copper has support at 330.00 and resistance at 340.00,
Close above 340 will take it to 345— 350+ mark and then to 370 mark in days to come else could test its Support level of 330.00. More and more downside panic will see only weekly close below 330.
Trade with levels only
Soyabean
Soyabean has support at 3600 and resistance at 3800,
Close above 3800 will see further upside rally till 3880---3940 + mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 3600 again.
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3600 mark .
Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 3940 will take to 4200---4350 mark in days to come.
