Gold 29657 /Silver 40300 / Crude Oil 3407 / Copper 304.20/Soyabean 3840
MCX
Gold rose more than one percent to a near three-week high on Wednesday, bolstered by a weaker dollar on declining expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve will raise interest rates any time soon. The metal currently trades at $1260 per ounce, up 1.36% on the day. MCX Gold Aug futures closed at Rs 29657 per 10 grams, up 0.97% on the day. The US Dollar extended its weak patch and tested a one month low near 93.60 levels for the dollar index.
The World Bank cut its 2016 global growth forecast on Wednesday to 2.4% from the 2.9% estimated in January due to stubbornly low commodity prices, sluggish demand in advanced economies, weak trade and diminishing capital flows. Commodity-exporting emerging market countries have struggled to adapt to lower prices for oil, metals, and other commodities, accounting for half of the downward revision, the multilateral lender said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
"Brexit is the next thing to look out for because if there was going to be a vote to leave, it would boost gold, if only because it pushes the Fed back again."
The world's biggest consumer of the yellow metal, China, kept its gold reserves unchanged, at 58.14 million ounces at the end of May, the central bank said on Tuesday. However, said China still has enormous U.S. dollar holdings and is likely to keep purchasing gold in order to diversify its forex reserves, which should serve as a supportive factor for the metal.
Silver soared 0.621 or 3.79% to $17.015 an ounce, eclipsing $17 for the first time in three weeks.
Copper ticked up 0.010 or 0.44% to $2.061 a pound. Copper futures rebounded on Wednesday, one day after plunging by more than 3% to three-week lows.
Nickel advanced more than 4% to settle at $8997 a metric ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME) on Wednesday, marking the second-biggest gain among the six main metals traded on the bourse.
MCX Nickel prices were also catching onto the opportunity and saw gains more than 2% on Wednesday to trade at Rs 599 per kg. The prices tested a high of Rs 599.50 per kg and a low of Rs 578 per kg.
Agri Commodities
India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced the arrival of the monsoon rains in Kerala. That marks the beginning of the 4-month June-September southwest monsoon season in the country. IMD has forecast above normal rains for the 2016 southwest monsoon season. Quantitatively, monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of plus/minus 4%.
Centre procures 1.11 lakh tonnes of pulses, 15,635 tonnes onions so far : To build a buffer stock in a bid to keep a check on prices and availability, government agencies have so far procured 51,000 tonnes of kharif and 60,000 tonnes of rabi pulses so far.
Sugar prices hit a 30-month high, fuelled by massive fund buying and rain disruptions in Brazil. But traders warned that the heavy technical buying could be short-lived, and the rally could end.
Key Highlights
• Dollar at five-week low
• Gold , Silver, palladium near three-week highs - Gold's gains lifted the rest of the precious metals, with silver hitting $17 an ounce for the first time in three weeks, up four percent.
• Oil hits 2016 highs – Brent hits $52 , WTI %51
• U.S. crude stockpiles drop more than expected
• Gasoline and distillate builds also surprise market
• Warm weather outlook boosts natural gas futures to 8-month high
Our Recommendations
MCX
Bullion’s
We recommended buying in Silver above 39200 with stop loss of 38700, it flared like anything and made high of 40444 , we asked to book full profit around 40200---40300.
Now what to expect
Two consecutive closes above 40200 will see sharp upside rally in it. Target looks 42000+ marks in days to come.
In Gold we recommended buy gold around 29420---29400 with stop loss of 29240, we asked to book profit around 29500.
Base Metals
We recommended buying in Zinc around 133.80 -133.50 with stop loss of 132.00, it flared and made high of 138.00 we asked to book full profit around 136.20—136.50
Hope you still holding on our zinc positional call recommended to buy above 131.00 with target of 140.00
We also recommended to buy lead around 115.80 – 115.50 with stop loss around 114.00, we asked to book profit around 116.80.
We are still holding long in nickel as we recommended buying around 588—585. It made high of 599.60 and settled at 598.20.
Now what to expect
if it closes above 600 we will see upside rally in it till 625—640+ marks in days to come.
We also recommended to buy CPO around 530—528 , with stop loss at 523 , it made high of 535.60 and settled for 533.30 , call is still on....
On Agri Commodities....
Hope you are still holding in Jeera Yesterday it flared and made high of 17025 we recommended to buy around 16600. We asked to book part profit around 16950—16980. Our target intact 17300—17800.
Today we book part profit in Sugar around 3640, we clearly indicated to buy above 3570.00.
We too asked to part profit in RM seed around 4610--4620 … told to buy above 4570. It made high of 4648.
Our Call on Guar seed too proven great. Told to buy above 3130, it made 3199, told to book part profit in it.
Technical Levels
Gold
Support at 29450 and resistance at 29740---29800.
Break and sustain + close above 29800 will take to 30000 and then to 30200 mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 29450 again.
Further downside panic will see only close below 29450 mark.
Traders can trade with levels only.
Silver
Support at 39800 and Resistance at 40450.
Break and sustain + closes above 40450 will take it to 40900—41200 marks in days to come else could test its support level of 39800 again.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 39800 mark on closing basis.
Trade with levels only
Crude Oil
Support at 3340 and Resistance at 3420---3450
Above 3420... it could test 3440---3450.
Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 3450 will see sharp upside rally till 3580---3650+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 3340 again
Close below 3340 will see further downside panic till 3280---3250 mark.
More and more downside panic will see only weekly close below 3220 mark
Traders can trade with levels only
Copper
Copper seems consolidating....
Support at 302 and Resistance at 308
Two consecutive closes below 302 will take to 294---289 mark else it could test its resistance level of 308 again
Further upside rally will see only weekly close above 308 mark
Traders can trade with levels only and wait for confirmation
Soya Bean
Support at 3860---3800 and Resistance at 3920
Close above 3920 will take to 3980---4050. Further upside rally will see only close above 4050 mark else it could test its support level of 3860---3800 again
Further downside panic will see only close below 3800 mark
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick of the day
Buy Soyaref above 660. Stop loss 650
Major Economic Data to be released
1. ECB President Draghi Speaks - 12 : 30 P.M
2. UK Goods Trade Balance - 02 : 00 P.M
3. Canadian NHPI m/m – 06 : 00 P.M
4. US Unemployment Claim – 06 : 00 PM
5. US Natural Gas Storage – 08 : 00 P.M
