Dollar/Rupee June Future
Dollar/rupee extended losses for the
fifth-straight session and the dollar index fell to its lowest level in
one-month Thursday as investors continued to discount the possibility that the
Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in coming months.
The bets for a Fed rate hike
diminished after a report showed that the world's largest economy slowed their
hiring drastically and as Federal Chairwoman Janet Yellen signalled that the
central bank won't raise short-term interest rates until new uncertainties about
the economic outlook are resolved.
Federal-funds futures, a popular tool
used by investors to place bets on US central-bank policies, on Wednesday
showed the odds of a rate increase at the Fed's June meeting were 4%.
Also, consumer prices in China rose
by 2% on year in the month of May, reported National Bureau of Statistics on
Thursday.
Food prices in China also
raised by 5.9% on year.
Meanwhile, on a monthly basis,
consumer prices dropped 0.5% in May after dipping 0.2% in April.
The producer prices fell 2.8% on year
in the month of May compared to economists' expectations for a decline of 3.2%
after sliding 3.4% in the previous month.
However, core machine orders in Japan
fell 11.0% on month in April, the Cabinet Office reported on Thursday, coming
in at 796.3 billion yen (tickernews)
Technical, USD-INR extended its
recent bearish trend for Fifth consecutive day and after breaching the support
66.88 settled at 66.8550 levels.
Near term trend expect to remain
bearish and pair may test 66.72-66.60 very soon following to long bearish
candle stick formation and breakdown of its previous swing low on EOD chart.
On the upside, immediate
resistance is seen at 67.15-67.35.
Strategy : Sell around 66.95-67.00
Target 66.72 Stop loss above 67.15.
EURINR June Future
Euro traded up for second session
Wednesday as dollar fell to over four week lows on fading prospects of a near
term rate hike by the US Federal Reserve.
EURINR had a neutral to bearish trend
on Wednesday, and settled at 76.12 almost flat. Intraday price action resulted
in formation of high wave candle stick pattern which suggest for indecisive
trend in the EUR. Adding to this, pair yet failed to break its previous day low
of 76.02
Hence, near term correction is
expect to come below this levels only, else short time pullback towards
76.35-76.70 will take place in days to come.
GBPINR June Future
Pound traded up for the second
straight day Wednesday as an upbeat UK economic data gave indications that the
economy is performing better than expected in the second quarter.
GBPINR continued its recent bearish
trend and settled down by 0.38% at 97.40 levels. A formation of bearish harami
candle stick formation on EOD chart is indicating for bearishness in the
pair.
Thereby, any rise towards 97.60-97.70
expects to attract huge selling pressure in days to come.
Further, immediate resistance is
seen at 97.95 sustain trade above only will expect to test 98.20 and above.
JPYINR June Future
Yen recovered more than 0.45% on
Wednesday as dollar fell to over four-week low on falling bets for a near-term
rate hike by the Federal Reserve. Yen has been strengthening in the recent
sessions even as investors don't expect the Bank of Japan to introduce fresh
stimulus to the world's third largest economy in its policy meeting set for
next week after the Japanese government pushed its plans to hike service tax to
Oct 2019
Sell strategy given below 62.05 was
not initiated, as after witnessing a gap up opening at 62.50 compare to
previous close 62.1375 JPYINR traded above 62.35 levels.
The strong downside move after the
inverted hammer candle stick formation on 6 June 2016 has shifted the short
term bias to bearish. Further,
RSI 14 and its 9 SMA negative divergence is also supporting for bearish outlook
in JPYINR.
Strategy : Sell JPYINR around
62.70-62.75 Target 62.50-62.25. Stop loss above 62.90.
Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible Impact
|
|
All Day
|
CNY
|
Bank Holiday
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
7:00am
|
CNY
|
CPI y/y
|
2.30%
|
2.30%
|
Neutral
|
|
CNY
|
PPI y/y
|
-3.10%
|
-3.40%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
11:00am
|
EUR
|
French Final Non-Farm Payrolls q/q
|
0.20%
|
0.20%
|
Neutral
|
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Trade Balance
|
21.4B
|
23.6B
|
Negative
|
|
JPY
|
Prelim Machine Tool Orders y/y
|
-
|
-26.30%
|
-
|
|
|
12:30pm
|
EUR
|
ECB President Draghi
Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
1:30pm
|
EUR
|
Italian Quarterly Unemployment Rate
|
11.60%
|
11.50%
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Goods Trade Balance
|
-11.1B
|
-11.2B
|
Negative
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment Claims
|
269K
|
267K
|
Negative
|
|
7:30pm
|
USD
|
Wholesale Inventories m/m
|
0.10%
|
0.10%
|
Neutral
|
|
10:31pm
|
USD
|
30-y Bond Auction
|
-
|
2.62|2.2
|
-
|
