Gold 31339/Silver 43251 / Crude Oil 3346 / Copper 325.30 /Soyabean 3755/
Top Gainers
Crude Oil – gains 3.72% LTP – 3346
Silver – gains 2.14% LTP – 43251
Lead – gains 1.32% - 118.90
Top Losers
Natural Gas – Losses 0.80% LTP – 193.20
Soya Bean (OCT) – Losses 1.94% LTP - 3755
Zinc – Losses 0.11% LTP – 140.70
MCX/ COMEX
Bullions
Gold holds solid gains after U.S. inflation data
Gold prices were higher in North American trade on Wednesday, holding on to solid overnight gains after data showed that core PCE prices rose in line with market expectations in May.
In a report, the Commerce Department said that the core PCE price index inched up 0.2%last month, matching expectations. On an annualized basis, core PCE prices rose 1.6%, in line with forecasts.
The Federal Reserve uses core PCE as a tool to help determine whether to raise or lower interest rates, with the aim of keeping inflation at a rate of 2% or below.
The report also showed that personal spending increased by 0.4% last month, while personal income advanced 0.2%.
Gold on the Comex division tacked on $5.45, or 0.41%, to trade at $1,323.25 a troy ounce.
Futures markets are now reflecting a chance that the Fed could actually cut interest rates before the end of the year, instead of hiking them, in the aftermath of Britain’s shock vote to leave the EU.
In the first of Fed policymakers to comment since the shock vote in Britain last week, Governor Jerome Powell said on Tuesday that the Brexit referendum had shifted global risks "to the downside," potentially posing a new threat to the U.S. central bank's outlook.
Prices of the yellow metal surged to a 27-month peak of $1,362.60 last Friday, after a shock U.K. vote to exit the European Union sent investors flooding into bullion and other safe haven assets.
The news raised concerns that other countries might leave the union and that global growth would come under significant pressure, while the actual timeframe of the U.K. departure from the EU remained unclear.
Outgoing U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron met with the European Council Tuesday but refrained from invoking Article 50, the treaty measure that would jump start the two year deadline for the U.K. to leave the European Union.
The heads of the EU's 27 other member states will continue their meeting on Wednesday without the U.K. present.
The precious metal is up almost 25% for the year to date, boosted by concerns over global growth and as market players pushed back expectations for the next U.S. rate hike.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down 0.3% at 95.89, moving further away from a three-month high of 96.86 hit earlier in the week.
Energy
WTI oil futures add to gains as crude stocks fall 4.1M barrels
West Texas Intermediate oil futures extended overnight gains in North America trade on Wednesday, after data showed that oil supplies in the U.S. fell more than expected last week.
Crude oil jumped $1.00, or 2.09%, to trade at $48.85 a barrel\ Prices were at around $48.53 prior to the release of the inventory data.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report that crude oil inventories fell by 4.1 million barrels in the week ended June 24. Market analysts' expected a crude-stock decline of 2.4 million barrels, while the American Petroleum Institute late Tuesday reported a supply drop of 3.9 million barrels.
Supplies at Cushing, Oklahoma, the key delivery point for Nymex crude, fell by 951,000 barrels last week, the EIA said. Total U.S. crude oil inventories stood at 526.6 million barrels as of last week.
The report also showed that gasoline inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels, compared to expectations for a gain of 58,000 barrels, while distillate stockpiles decrease by 1.8 million barrels.
A day earlier, New York-traded oil rallied $1.52, or 3.28%, as worries about the U.K.’s shock decision to leave the European Union abated, boosting appetite for riskier assets.
Oil got a further boost amid concerns over supply disruption in Norway, where about 7,500 workers on seven oil and gas fields could go on strike from Saturday if a new wage deal is not agreed before a Friday deadline.
The affected fields account for nearly 18% of Norway's oil output, hitting production from the North Sea's top producer.
Natural gas futures extend rally to hit highest level since May 2015
U.S. natural gas futures rallied for the third straight session on Wednesday, to hit the highest level in more than a year as hot summer temperatures across most parts of the U.S. raised expectations for power generation demand to meet air conditioning needs.
Updated weather forecasting models suggested that temperatures may be hotter than normal throughout most of the contiguous U.S. from July 8 through July 12.
Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning.
Natural gas rose to an intraday peak of $2.974 per million British thermal units, the most since May 21. It last stood at $2.891 by 14:35GMT, or 10:35AM ET, up 0.1 cents, or 0.03%.
A day earlier, gas futures surged 14.9 cents, or 5.44%. Natural gas prices are up nearly 45% since late May as expectations have grown that hot summer weather will lead to heavy demand.
Gas use typically hits a seasonal low with spring's mild temperatures, before warmer weather increases demand for gas-fired electricity generation to power air conditioning.
Meanwhile, traders looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. gas inventories to gauge the strength of demand for the fuel.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration's storage report slated for release on Thursday is expected to show a build of 48 billion cubic feet for the week ending June 24. That compared with builds of 62 billion cubic feet in the prior week, 73 billion a year earlier and a five-year average of 78 billion cubic feet.Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.103 trillion cubic feet, 19.9% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 21.9% above the five-year average for this time of year.
Unless intense summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles will test physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.
Agri Commodity
Monsoon likely to envelop most of the country before July 15 The depression over the North-west Arabian Sea has remained stationary close to Masirah in Oman, but it has been instrumental in sustaining monsoon flows across the West Coast. A number of places on the coast such as Harnai, Panambur, Bajpe, Ratnagiri, and Honavar continued to record heavy to very rain during the 24 hours ending on Tuesday morning. Weather models do not expect further strengthening of the depression; it may loiter in the region for some time and fade out off the coast of Oman in the next couple of days. This would only lead to a calibrated scaling-up of a counterpart low-pressure area that has since crawled into India’s East Coast from the Bay of Bengal. On Tuesday, the India Met Department located the system lying partly over the coastal areas of south Odisha and north Andhra Pradesh and partly over the adjoining Bay. It will herald the monsoon’s entry into parts of Gujarat, east Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Rajasthan over the course of the next three to four days. (Source: HBL)
NCDEX turmeric is rising in a near-term uptrend
The turmeric futures contract traded on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) advanced 3.3 per cent to close at ₹8,166 a quintal last week. This bullish momentum extended Monday as well and the contract climbed ₹162 or 2 per cent to settle at ₹8,328. Last session, the contract advanced marginally by 0.4 per cent to trade at ₹8,364 a quintal. After recording a multi-year high at ₹10,660, the contract reversed direction in December 2015. Since then, the contract has been on an intermediate-term downtrend. Subsequently, the contract changed direction last week, triggered by positive divergence in the daily moving average convergence divergence and price rate of change indicators.
Late harvest likely to help cardamom market stay firm A delayed harvest is likely to help the cardamom market stay firm and rally on export demand. Arrivals are likely to peak only after July as against the normal period of June, due to drought-like conditions in the first quarter of 2016. India is the second largest producer of cardamom in the world after Guatemala and the biggest consumer of the spice. Guatemala leads with 60-66% of the world production, but has seen production come down in the past few years due to natural disasters like flood. Harvesting will be delayed due to the weather factor; there will be good supply in the market during August-October, KK Devassia of Cardamom Growers Association said. “The damage due to intense drought is limited, as plants have not been damaged much, but the yield is likely to go down substantially,” he added. Cardamom plants are very sensitive to rains with productivity directly related to the volume of rains and number of raining days. (Source: FE)
Rabi pulses procurement touches 68,000 tonnes Government agencies procured 68,000 tonnes of Rabi pulses, as on June 27, 2016, taking the total to 1,19,000 tonnes, including 51,000 tonnes of the Kharif crop. Besides this, 14,321 tonnes of pulses have been imported by government agencies against the total contracted quantity of 46,000 tonnes, the Food Ministry said on Tuesday. After an interMinisterial meeting to review lifting and distribution of pulses allocated from the buffer stock to the States here on Tuesday, the Ministry also decided to once again request States to expedite the lifting of pulses -- tur and urad – from the buffer stock for distribution at Rs. 120/kg. (Source: HBL)
Maharashtra govt lets farmers sell produce outside APMC markets Maharashtra’s farmers will now be able to sell their produce outside the Agriculture Produce Market Committee (APMC) markets in the state. The state cabinet on Tuesday cleared a proposal to give farmers of the state more options to sell their produce. A high-powered sub-committee, which includes eight ministers, was also constituted to formalise the modalities to implement the decision. Although the decision is limited to fruits and vegetables, it will cause of a loss of around Rs5,000 crore to the Rs50,000 crore annual turnover of APMC markets across the state, admitted state (agricultural) marketing minister Chandrakant Patil. The government will soon promulgate an ordinance for its implementation after finalising modalities, he said.(Source:HT)
Technical Levels.
Gold
Gold has a support at 31250 and resistance at 31450.
Close below 31250 will see further downside panic till 31150---31080 mark. More and more panic will see below 31080 mark else it could test its resistance level of 31450 again.
Break and sustain above 31550 will take to 31800---32000+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 31250 again
Trade safely with levels only
Silver
Silver has support at 42850 and resistance at 43450,
Break and sustain below 42850 will take to 42500---42250 mark. More and more downside panic will see only close below 42250 mark else it could test its resistance level of 43450 again
Close above 43450 will take to 43800---44000 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude oil
Support at 3280 and Resistance at 3350
Close above 3350 will take to 3420 --3450 and then to 3480+ mark in days to come else could test its support level of 3280 again. Further downside panic will see only close below 3280 mark.
Traders can trade with levels only
Copper
Support at 321 and Resistance at 327
Close above 327 will see further upside rally till 330---332 and then to 335+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 321 again.
Trade with levels only
Soyabean (Oct)
Support at 3600 and Resistance at 3800
Fresh selling can initiate only close below 3600 mark. Three consecutive closes + weekly close below 3600 will take to 3450--3380 and then to 3250 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3800 again
Close above 3800 will see further upside rally till 3880---3940 mark. 3940 act as major hurdle in Soyabean
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick
Buy Lead (July) around 120.50--120.80, Stop loss 119.00 Target 122.00+++
Major Economic Data
U.K Current A/C – 02:00 P.M
U.K Final GDP q/q – 02:00 P.M
European CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 02:30 P.M
European Core CPI Flash Estimate y/y – 02:30 P.M
Canadian GDP m/m – 06:00 P.M
U.S Unemployment Claims – 06:00 P.M
Chicago PMI – 07:15 P.M
Natural Gas Storage – 08:00 P.M
