Dollar/Rupee July Future
Dollar/rupee posts its biggest single day fall in over
three weeks Wednesday on likely overseas funds inflow into local stock while
the dollar index was little changed Thursday on improved risk appetite as
investors recover from surprised exit of United Kingdom from the European Union
in a referendum last week
Technical, USDINR retraced more than 0.40% yesterday and
settled at 67.9950 compare to previous close of 68.2875. On the EOD chart a formation of long
bearish candle stick is indicating for bearishness in the pair, however
correction is expect to limited towards 67.80-67.65 levels which is coincided
with 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the 29 Feb-20 April fall from 69.5650
to 67.00.
On the upside, 61.8% retracement level at 68.46 will
act as an near term resistance level above which pair will expect to test 68.95
and above, else any rise towards 68.25-68.30 is expect to attract short term
selling activities.
Short term strategy - Sell USDINR around
68.20-68.25 Target 68.00-67.80. Stop loss above 68.40.
EUR/INR July Future
Euro traded down Wednesday data showed that Eurozone's
economic sentiment eased in the month of June.
Eurozone economic sentiment eased slightly in June,
survey results from European Commission revealed Wednesday.
The economic confidence index came in at 104.4 in June,
down from 104.6 in May. The expected score was 104.7.
The consumer sentiment index fell to -7.3 in June, as
initially estimated, from -7 in May. Likewise, the services sentiment index
slid to 10.8 from 11.3 in May.
Another report from EU showed that the business sentiment
dropped marginally to 0.22 from 0.26 in May. Economists had forecast the score
to remain unchanged at 0.26.
EURINR turn lower yesterday and after breaching the
support 75.25 settled at 75.40 levels. Intraday price action resulted in
formation of high wave candle stick pattern which is indicating for indecisive
trend in days to come.
Near term resistance is seen at 75.80 and possible
correction is expected to come on rise around 75.65-75.70 unless it gives a
closing above this resistance
GBP/INR July Future
Pound traded up for the second-day Wednesday as globally
risk aversion subsided as Brexit concerns faded even as jittery remains after
the Prime Minister of United Kingdom, David Cameron resigned.
GBPINR rebounded from the day low 90.7850, and settled with
a gain of 0.32% at 91.5250 levels. A formation of bullish harami cross pattern
on EOD chart is yet indicating for short term pullback in GBPINR.
Crucial support will intact at 90.75 and fresh correction
is expected to come below 90.75 for the target 90.20-89.80.
JPY/INR July Future
Yen traded down Wednesday on optimism that policy makers
will introduce measures to limit the economic fallout from Britain's decision
to leave the European Union. Yen also drop as top policymakers in Japan
prepared for another set of meetings on the economy in the wake of Brexit vote
in the UK.
JPYINR extended its fall for Wednesday also and settled
down by 0.69% at 66.25 levels. Near
term trend is expect to remain bullish following to the strong breakout of
short term consolidation and any dip towards 66.20-66.00 is expect to attract
near term buying activities, unless pair give a closing below 65.80 levels.
Below 65.80 will expect to test 65.50-65.25 and
below. Stop loss will be 66.00.
Major
Economic Data & Events Schedule today
|
Time
|
Currency
|
Economic
Indicators
|
Forecast
|
Previous
|
Possible
Impact
|
|
10:30am
|
JPY
|
Housing Starts
y/y
|
4.90%
|
9.00%
|
Negative
|
|
11:30am
|
EUR
|
German Retail
Sales m/m
|
0.70%
|
-0.90%
|
Positive
|
|
12:15pm
|
EUR
|
French Consumer
Spending m/m
|
-0.10%
|
-0.10%
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
French Prelim
CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.40%
|
Negative
|
|
|
1:25pm
|
EUR
|
German
Unemployment Change
|
-5K
|
-11K
|
Positive
|
|
2:00pm
|
GBP
|
Current Account
|
-27.3B
|
-32.7B
|
Positive
|
|
GBP
|
Final GDP q/q
|
0.40%
|
0.40%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
GBP
|
Index of
Services 3m/3m
|
0.40%
|
0.60%
|
Negative
|
|
|
GBP
|
Revised Business
Investment q/q
|
-0.40%
|
-0.50%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
2:30pm
|
EUR
|
CPI Flash
Estimate y/y
|
0.00%
|
-0.10%
|
Neutral
|
|
EUR
|
Core CPI Flash
Estimate y/y
|
0.80%
|
0.80%
|
Neutral
|
|
|
EUR
|
Italian Prelim
CPI m/m
|
0.20%
|
0.30%
|
Negative
|
|
|
Tentative
|
EUR
|
Italian 10-y
Bond Auction
|
-
|
1.42|1.4
|
-
|
|
5:00pm
|
EUR
|
ECB Monetary
Policy Meeting Accounts
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
|
6:00pm
|
USD
|
Unemployment
Claims
|
267K
|
259K
|
Negative
|
|
7:15pm
|
USD
|
Chicago PMI
|
50.60
|
49.30
|
Positive
|
|
11:00pm
|
USD
|
FOMC Member Bullard Speaks
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
