Gold futures fell sharply on Monday, after the latest Brexit polls indicated the “remain” campaign has regained some lost ground ahead of Thursday’s key referendum. Concerns over a possible Brexit subsided after a series of weekend polls showed the campaign to keep Britain in the EU had regained momentum ahead of Thursday's highly-anticipated referendum .Gold soared to $1,318.90 late last week, the most since August 2014, as worries about a potential exit by the U.K. from the European Union left investors scrambling for safe haven assets. Prior to the Brexit referendum, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen’s monetary policy testimony in Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday will attract the markets’ attention. Yellen is scheduled to testify on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday. On Wednesday, Yellen will appear in front the House Financial Services Committee.
Oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday, as fears that Britain would vote to leave the European Union abated, aiding a recovery in investor risk appetite.
U.S. natural gas futures rose to a nine-month high on Monday, on forecasts for continued above-normal temperatures across most parts of the U.S. throughout most of summer. The National Weather Service’s most recent three-month outlook showed above-average temperatures for nearly the entire country. It predicts far above-average temperatures for the West, the Northeast and the Southeast. Demand for natural gas tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity to power air conditioning. Natural gas prices have closely tracked weather forecasts in recent weeks, as traders try to gauge the impact of shifting outlooks on early summer cooling demand.
Dollar hovers at 1-week lows vs. rivals : The dollar continued to hover at one-week lows against the other major currencies on Monday, as concerns over a potential British exit from the European Union, or Brexit, eased, continued to boost market sentiment. The greenback remained under pressure after the Federal Reserve left interest rates on hold last week and lowered forecast for how much they expect to hike interest rates in the next few years.
Agri Commodities
Sowing of kharif crops lags as monsoon makes slow progress : Slower- than-normal progress of the south-west monsoon has impacted sowing of rain-fed kharif crops, according to data released by the agriculture ministry on Friday. So far, an area of 8.4 million hectares has been sown, nearly 11% lower than the 9.4 million hectares sown by this time last year. However, these are early days as the seasonal or total area under kharif crops in the JuneOctober season is 106.2 million hectares. Kharif crops such as rice, pulses, coarse cereals and cotton are planted till mid- to end-July. Sowing is expected to pick up pace as the monsoon progresses. Over the past week, the monsoon has not moved beyond parts of Karnataka in southwestern India, although it progressed into the eastern regions to cover West Bengal and parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Odisha.
Pulses sowing down 27% at 3.32 lakh hectares : Area under pulses, whose prices are on the rise, is down 27 per cent at 3.32 lakh hectares in the ongoing 2016-17 kharif season, despite higher support prices announced by the government. Farmers had sown pulses in 4.53 lakh hectares in the year ago period. The government hiked the minimum support price (MSP) of pulses by up to Rs 425 per quintal for this year to boost output and check price rise. Prices of pulses continued to rule high at up to Rs 200 per kg in the country.
After five bitter years, some relief for sugar : After five consecutive seasons of supply glut and steadily falling sugar prices, is India’s sugar market finally turning the corner? The stock market certainly seems to think so, with many sugar producers’ stocks recently hitting their 52-week highs after the companies reported a turnaround in their financials for the quarter ended March 2016. Government slaps 20% export duty on sugar to check prices Government today imposed 20 per cent customs duty on sugar exports to boost domestic supply and check prices which are ruling high at Rs 40/kg.
Technical Levels
Gold
Support at 30400 and Resistance at 30700
Close below 30400 will take to 30100---29850 mark. More and more downside panic will see only below 29850 mark else it could test its resistance level of 30700 again
Further upside rally will see only close above 30700 mark
Trade with levels only
Silver
Support at 40800 and Resistance at 42000
Looks weak and could test its support level of 40800. Weekly close below 40800 will see more downside panic till 40500---40200 and then to 39800 else it could test its resistance level of 42000 again
Further upside rally will see only close above 42000 mark
Trade with levels only
Crude Oil
Above 3380... we will see further upside rally till 3420---3450 and then to 3480+ mark in days to come else it could test its support level of 3320 again.
Further downside panic will see only close below 3320 mark
Copper
Support at 305---302.50 and Resistance at 312---318
Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then traders can trade in a range with levels only and wait for confirmation.
Soya Bean
Support at 3800 and resistance at 3880--- 3940
Now what to expect???
Two consecutive closes below 3800 will see downside panic till 3790---3740 mark in days to come else it could test its resistance level of 3880---3940 again
Further upside rally can be seen above 3940 mark
Trade with levels only
Technical Pick of the day
Buy Copper around 310. Stop loss 305.50. Target 318++
Today's data and event
U.K Public Sector Net Borrowings – 02 : 00 P.M
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 02:30 P.M
ZEW Economic Sentiment – 02:30 P.M
ECB President Draghi Speaks – 06 : 30 P.M
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies – 07 : 30 P.M
More will update soon!!
