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Tuesday, June 21, 2016

Daily Currency Outlook - May trade range bound ahead of U.S Fed and ECB President Draghi Speaks




USDINR June Future


Dollar fell as market sentiments for safe-haven currency plunged over ongoing concerns about the referendum on whether Britain will remain in the European Union.

Technical, after witnessed a gap up opening at 67.7050 compare to previous close of 67.1725, USDINR retraced towards 67.3550 and settled at 67.3975 levels. Near term immediate resistance is seen at 67.90 and pair would need to trade above 67.90 in order to test 68.00-68.35 levels.

 Else, any rise towards 67.65-67.75 is expect to attract short term selling activities for the target 67.35-67.20.




EUR-INR June Future


Euro traded near its one-week high Monday as safe-haven appeal for euro increased after the recent opinion polls on the European Union referendum pointed out that UK might vote to 'Remain' in the European Union.


EURINR witnessed more than 1.50% gain in morning trade and retraced towards 76.3625 levels. Short term trend expects to remain volatile ahead of EU referendum. On the other hand, strong resistance is seen at 77.10 on closing basis and pair would need to trade above these levels in order to test 77.55-78.00.

Else, any rise towards 76.80-76.90 is expect to attract huge selling pressure for the target 76.20-75.80 and below.




GBP-INR June Future


Pound traded near three-week high against the greenback Monday as worries eased that Britain might vote to leave the European Union.  The poll gave boost to Prime Minister David Cameron who is battling to avoid 'Brexit' in Thursday's referendum.  Two new polls suggest that support has swung back toward remaining in the European Union, as campaigning resumed Sunday after last week's slaying of British lawmaker Jo Cox.

GBPINR witnessed more than 2.80% recovery yesterday and after hitting a high of 98.97 settled at 98.67 levels.  On the daily chart, constructing triangle pattern, however it yet not completed but momentum upside move expect to continued towards immediate resistance of 99.50 before next any downside move.  On the downside, fresh sell expect below 98.20

Buy above 98.98 Target 99.30-99.55. Stop loss below 98.85 (CMP 98.8825)




JPY-INR June Future



Yen settled almost flat on Monday as safe-haven bets for yen plunged on waning fears of United Kingdom's exit from the European Union.

JPYINR consolidated around 64.50-64.60 levels and settled at 64.41, almost flat. On the EOD chart formation of high wave candle stick is indicating for trend reversal may take place very soon. On the upside, strong resistance is seen at 64.95 which coincide with previous swing high and further upside move will expect to come above these levels only.

Buy above 64.98 Target 65.35-65.55. Stop loss below 64.85.

Or Risky traders may sell with stop loss above 64.96 Target 64.55-64.30.



 Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today



Time
Currency
Economic Indicators
Forecast
Previous
Possible Impact
5:20am
JPY
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
-
-
-
10:00am
JPY
All Industries Activity m/m
1.30%
0.10%
Positive
Tentative
EUR
German Constitutional Court Ruling
-
-
-
2:00pm
GBP
Public Sector Net Borrowing
9.5B
6.6B
Positive
2:30pm
EUR
German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5.1
6.4
Negative
EUR
ZEW Economic Sentiment
15.3
16.8
Negative
3:30pm
GBP
CBI Industrial Order Expectations
-10
-8
Negative
6:30pm
EUR
ECB President Draghi Speaks
-
-
-
7:30pm
USD
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies
-
-
-












More will update soon!!