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Thursday, July 27, 2017

Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook with Equity Pick of the day 27th July 2017




Nifty 10,020 /Sensex 32,382/ Bank Nifty 24670

30 Advances / 21 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


Nifty settles above 10k mark for the first time; Sensex ends at record high

Wednesday turned out to be a historic day of trade for Indian equity benchmarks, with Nifty settling above magical five-digit mark of 10,000 for the first time ever on the back of positive sentiments flow among the market participants during the ongoing corporate earnings season. Sentiments remained up-beat since morning, as markets started the session in green with report that the government approved an addition of 7.47 lakh new registration applications under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) regime. Traders also took some encouragement with private report that Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) pumped in over $25.4 billion into the Indian equity and debt market segments thus far in calendar year 2017 (CY17). The flows have come in on expectation of a revival in India's economic growth and recent government-backed reforms, especially in the banking sector.
It was the last leg of trade where markets extended its northward journey and ended above the all-time closing high levels, with traders taking support with report stating that a team of officers, led by the commerce secretary, is holding detailed consultations with states to clear the bottlenecks that are hampering exports. Traders shrugged off private brokerage firm report which highlighted that retail inflation in India is expected to rise noticeably from trough in June to 4.4 percent in the second half of this year, driven mostly by food prices and the base effect. The report added that although inflation has bottomed, in the medium term it is expected to see a significant uptrend and rise above the RBI's target.
Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments with all the indices trading in green, as investors geared up for a rate decision from the US Federal Reserve and continued to digest earnings reports. Asian markets ended mostly in green, as investors awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision on wednesday for more clues on its tightening plans.
Back home, power stocks remained on buyers’ radar, as the Ministry of Power said that outstanding liabilities of power distribution companies to central public sector undertaking power producers have halved under the Ujwal Discom Assurance Yojana. Moreover, the banking and telecom stocks remained buzzing, as the Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said banks have an exposure of Rs 97,681 crore in the telecom sector, which is grappling with financial stress. Total outstanding (funded) advances by public sector banks to the 'communications' sector stood at Rs 63,415 crore, while total exposure to the sector worked out to be Rs 97,681 crore.



FII’s Activity 26-July-17


The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5636.61 crore against gross selling of Rs 5315.48 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 321.13 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 336.96 crore with gross sales of Rs 650.39 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 313.43 crore in debt.

Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady 

After a two-day meeting in Washington, D.C., Federal Reserve policymakers say they'll keep their benchmark rate in a range between 1 percent and 1.25 percent for the time being.
Fed officials said "job gains have been solid" and the U.S. "labor market continues to strengthen" in the statement after a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
The officials described economic activity as "rising moderately." They noted that unemployment rate has declined since the beginning of the year. The Fed is close to meeting its mandate to maximize employment.
However, officials also noted Wednesday that inflation is running below the 2 percent target they think is best for supporting economic growth. Concern about lagging inflation could pressure the Fed to hold rates lower for a longer period of time.
Fed officials also said that they plan to begin selling off some of the securities on their huge balance sheet "relatively soon." The Fed bought trillions of dollars in government bonds and mortgage-backed securities after the financial crisis, injecting money into the economy in an effort to boost growth. During that time, the total value of securities on the Fed's balance sheet rose from under $900 billion to over $4.5 trillion.
Analysts expect the Fed will begin the process of selling those securities this fall. However, the sell-off will happen over a period of years. Dumping the securities on the market rapidly could destabilize financial markets and harm the economy.(CNBC)



Now what to expect??







Nifty Levels



Above 10035 will see rally till 10069---10137 mark.

Panic will see only close below 9950 level only


Bank Nifty Levels



Support at 24400 and resistance at 24700

Close above 24700 will take to 24900---25050+++ mark.

Support and revise stop loss below 24400 on closing basis

Trade with levels only



Daily Derivative Outlook 27th July


• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 9.25 points versus a premium 9.25 of 10.60 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10100 strike, and maximum put writing was seen at 10000 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9900 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10100--9900

• KPIT (239%), HEXAWARE (32%), JPASSOCIAT (27%), YESBANK (23%) and DLF (18%) were the top gainers in open interest in the market.

• CADILAHC (-19%), ADANIPOWER (-14%), IDBI (-12%), UNIONBANK (-11%) and DABUR (-11%) were the top losers in open interest in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.65 against 2.01 for Tuesday’s trade. 

• Advance Decline ratio was at 1.08, Advance (113) + Decline (105)+ Unchanged (1) = 219 



Derivative Idea (27-07-2017)


KPIT gain around 59.9% of open interest as long build up on and 994.8% rise in volume on Yesterday’s trade.

On Daily charts, KPIT has Support at 118.50 and Resistance at 128, Break and sustain below 128 will take it to 135--138 and then to 145 + mark. Looks weak only if closes below 118.50. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further panic in coming sessions.



Trading Recommendation


Buy KPIT (AUG) Future in panic around 122.50--120.00 with stop loss of 118.50. Target 135—138 and then 145



Today's Top Pick


ITC


Above 294 will see upside rally till 302--312++ mark in days to come.
Looks bearish only if close below 285 any sharp downside fall will be buying opportunity in it. 


Corporate Action


Cummins India Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 9/- Per Share

Arvind Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 2.40 Per Share

Cadila Healthcare Limited-Annual General Meeting

Ujjivan Financial Services Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.80 Per Share

Rbl Bank Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.80 Per Share

The Ramco Cements Limited- Dividend - Rs 3 Per Share

Tech Mahindra Limited--Annual General Meeting/ Dividend -Rs 9/- Per Share

Berger Paints Limited - Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.75/- Per Share

MRF Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 54/- Per Share



Results Today


Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Limited

Tata Elxsi Limited

Reliance Capital Limited

Maruti Suzuki India Limited

Oil & Natural Gas
 Corporation Limited

ITC Limited

IDFC Bank Limited

IDFC Limited

Idea Cellular Limited

HCL Technologies
 Limited

ICICI Bank Limited

Exide Industries Limited

Glenmark

 Pharmaceuticals Limited

Biocon Limited

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited











More Will Update Soon!!

Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Commodity Alert: CBOT soy up on short covering, crop damage worry


Soybean futures on CBOT were higher today as investors covered short positions after prices fell for three straight trading days. Expectations of a rise in USDA's weekly exports data, due Friday, also supported the positive sentiment. Worries that extreme weather conditions in the US had taken a huge toll on crops also kept prices up.



Source: Newswire











More will update soon!!

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 26th July 17




Gold futures ended lower on Tuesday as equities gained and the markets awaited clues about monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve, which began its two-day meeting. The market is not expecting an interest rate increase following the Fed's two-day meeting, but it is looking for hints on the timing and extent of future moves.

Crude oil futures traded marginally higher on MCX as the United Arab Emirates stressed its commitment to OPEC-led coordinated production cut effort and pledged to reduce shipments by a further 10 percent starting in September. Further, API data showing that US inventories shed a hefty 10.2 million barrels last week too supported crude oil prices.




Copper futures traded higher on MCX as speculators enlarged positions amid a better trend in base metals at the domestic spot markets on pick-up in demand from consuming industries. Further, positive global cues as expectations of rising demand in China and a weak dollar lifted markets too fuelled the uptrend.




Technical Level



Gold 


Below 28280… Panic remain continue till 28220—28150 mark days to come.

Hurdle intact at 28500




Silver


Support at 37650 and Resistance at 38050---38400

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.




Crude


Hurdle at 3150 , Above 3150 rally remain continue till 3180—3200 and then to 3250++ mark else it could test its support level of 3080---3050 again.

Trade with levels only

Natural Gas 

Support 186 and Resistance 191

Trading in range either side breakout with volume will decide further.



Copper 


Support at 400 and Resistance at 415

Trend looks positive can could touch its resistance level of 415, Break and sustain above 415 will take it to 418—420++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated on close below 400 mark.



Economic Data


07:30 P.M New Home Sales:  Previous 610K, Forecast 615K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in New Home Sales - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.


08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -4.7M, Forecast -3.3M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa.


11:30 P.M FOMC Statement

11.30 P.M Federal Funds Rate











More will update soon!!

Agro Commodity Update (26-July-2017)




Fundamental Aspect


Jeera futures traded with dull note on muted demand from retailers and stockists at the spot market. However, tight supplies from the producing regions capped some losses. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during first 20 days of July recorded only 2,396 tonnes compared to 5,872 tonnes in June for the same time period. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI.

Turmeric futures edged lower for the fourth consecutive session due to fall in demand at the spot market. Further, good sowing progress and monsoon rains in Telangana and Karnataka too fuelled the downtrend. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 19-Jul-17, up 90% to 33,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 28,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per trader source, about 12,623 tonnes arrived in first 20 days in July compared to 20,623 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the latest data release by the government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.

Soybean futures traded marginally higher as speculators enlarged their positions on reports of lower sowing compared to last year. Further, expectation of good crushing demand on reports of hike in import duty too supported soybean prices. Meanwhile, US soybeans rose after the US Department of Agriculture said more of the crop had been damaged by recent dry weather than expected. However, expectation of revival of monsoon in central India, capped some gains. As per the latest government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 84.6 lakh hectares till last week, down about 17.8% on year. Last year, the acreage was 102.8 lakh hectares. The area under the crop fell as some farmers are shifting to more profitable crops such as cotton, as oilseeds fetched poor returns last season. In Madhya Pradesh, the acreage of the crop was at 40.1 lakh ha, down from 49.7 lakh ha in the previous year. In Rajasthan, another major grower of the oilseed, soybean was sown across 786,800 ha, as against 10.2 lakh ha in the year-ago period. 

MCX Cotton traded moderately higher as market participants initiated fresh buying on concern about excess rains in cotton growing areas in Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 104.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 86.6 lakh ha for same period.



Technical Aspect



Jeera (Aug) 



Support at 19050 and Resistance at 19450.

Looks weak and likely to touch 19050. Break and sustain below 19050 will see sharp downside panic in it towards 18720---18500 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 19450.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 19450.

Trade with levels only.



Castor Seed (Aug)


Support at 4350 and Resistance at 4480.

Break and sustain above 4480 with volume will take it to 4540---4600 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 4350.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4350 mark.

Trade with levels only.




Turmeric (Aug)


Last week we clearly indicated that 7800---8000 act as major hurdle and we will see sharp correction in it.

Today made a fresh low of 6786.

Now what to expect??

Major Support is at 6750 and Resistance is 7050.

If prices unable to hold below 6750 we can see well upside momentum in it. Close above 7050 will take it to 7200 and 7360 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 6750.

Fresh selling can be seen below 6750.

Trade with levels only. 



Guar seed (Oct)


Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3450.

Close above 3450 with volume will take it to 3530---3580 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3370.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3370 only.

Trade with levels only.



Soya bean (Aug)


Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Trade with levels only.



Soyaref (Aug)


Support at 638 and resistance is 645.

Either side break or close with volume will set the further trend in it.

Fresh buying can be seen above 645.

Trade with levels only.



Dhaniya (Aug)


Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.

Now what to expect?

Can accumulate more buy on decline near 4900 which will take it to 5120---5200 mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800. 



RM Seed (Aug)


Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3700.

Close above 3700 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.

Trade with levels only.



Mentha oil (July)


Our buy call in Mentha Oil from 970---1046.1 proven great.

Now what to expect?
Support is 1010 and Resistance is 1048.

We expect a bit correction here in prices and if it is unable to hold above 1048 then we can see profit booking activity at higher level in it till 1010.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 1010 mark.

Trade with levels only.










More will update soon!!

Commodity Alert: Guar prices tad up in Bikaner on lower supply

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

Guar prices rose marginally in Bikaner, Rajasthan, due to lower supply in the market. Farmers are holding back stocks as prices are low because of weak export demand and as favourable weather fuelled expectations of a better crop. 


Source: Newswire











More will update soon!!

⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Monsoon Alert: IMD sees thundershowers in Madhya Pradesh in 24 hours



Thundershowers are likely in parts of Madhya Pradesh in 24 hours, the Bhopal bureau of IMD stated. The state has received heavy rainfall in the past few days and marginal decrease in rainfall activity is seen in next 24 hours.    The state is the country's largest grower of soybean, and among the leading producers of paddy and pulses. Rains at this time are beneficial for the sown kharif crops. The state has received 5% above-normal rains so far during the southwest monsoon season


Source : Newswire










   More will update soon!!

Commodity Alert: MCX crude oil prices up over 1% on NYMEX cues





Futures contracts of crude oil rose over 1% on the MCX tracking the benchmark contracts on the NYMEX.Prices rose on the New York exchange after the latest data by American Petroleum Institute showed that crude oil inventories in the US fell by 10.23 mln barrels in week ended Jul 21.Output cut announcement by Saudi Arabia also supported prices. The gulf nation said it will cap exports at 6.6 mln barrels per day in August.



Source : Newswire












More will update soon!!

Currency Report 26th July 2017



The Indian rupee pared all the initial losses and traded moderately lower against the US dollar ahead of FOMC rate decision due later in the day. The most awaited FOMC rate decision, most of the currency pair undertone remained little shaky as currency traders preferred to stay on the side-lines and avoided taking any long positions. Fresh unwinding by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) also weighed on the rupee sentiment. However, a breath taking record rally in local equities along with subdued dollar overseas trend largely cushioned the fall. On the global front, the dollar slumped to over one-year low against a basket of currencies on Tuesday as investors grew more wary on the short-term outlook although they held off placing more bearish bets ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting starting today. The 10-year bond yield closed at 6.414%, compared to its previous close of 6.436%



USDINR





Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.60

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.


GBPINR




Support at 83.70 and Resistance at 84.10

Break and sustain above 84.10 will take it to 84.30—84.50++ mark else could touch its support level of 83.70

Fresh selling can be initiated below 83.70



EURINR




Support at 74.80 and Resistance at 75.15

Above 75.15 rally remain continue till 75.40—75.70++ mark.

Support intact at 74.80


JPYINR




Below 57.80 panic remain continue till 57.50—57.30.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 58.20. So maintain stop loss.













More will update soon!!

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COPPER gave Non Stop rally from 391 to 411.30 ⬆⬆



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Commodity Alert: Copper Hits Fresh 2-Year High -- Market Talk

                         

Copper prices hit fresh 2-year highs in Asian trading as the broader market's risk sentiment picks up. Helping in copper's case has been the PBoC maintaining a neutral policy stance. Easing concerns about tightening monetary conditions in China along with supply concerns involving in the Philippines.
Apart from that, The International Monetary Fund on Monday revised its 2017 outlook for China, the world's largest copper consumer, while also raising growth estimates for Europe and Japan. Many investors look to copper as a barometer for the global economy's health, as the metal is a key component in manufacturing and construction. "There are finally bright spots in global growth, and this is driving copper. China accounts for some 45% of global copper demand. The IMF left its global growth forecast unchanged and trimmed.


   Source : Newswire           









  More will update soon!!
               

Morning News Headlines

                     



   Economic Times



●  Large state-run banks may be added to ETF bag

●  Sebi may ask cos to keep bourses in loop on defaults

●  '10 public sector banks have submitted turnaround plans'

●  133 cos owe over Rs 3,39,704 cr to exchequer: Jaitley

●  India 'abusing' trade remedy measures: China

●  Sahara chief asked to deposit Rs 1,500 cr by Sept 7

●  Niti Aayog cites 'fragile finances' for AI divestment

●  Airtel, Voda face bigger threat from Google, FB than Jio



 Business Standard


●  LIC to offload excess stake in firms in 2 years

●  Tata Steel to consider take over of firms at NCLT

●  Bharti Airtel Q1 net takes massive 75% hit on Jio impact

●  Bhushan Steel's market share, big customers attractive bet for JSW Steel

●  Axis Bank June quarter net profit falls 16% to Rs 1,360 cr

●  Vodafone, Idea CEOs expect merger to be completed in 2018

●  Sebi asks commodity bourses to identify 'sensitive' agricultural products



Business Line


●  Power discom dues down by half since June last

●  Over 7 lakh new registrations under GST: Adhia

●  Vedanta Q1 consolidated profit more than doubles

●  US footwear major Skechers steps into apparel, accessories 

●  Cochin Shipyard's Rs. 1,470-cr IPO opens on August 1

●  Unichem Labs gets USFDA nod for hypertension drug 



 Mint


●  RBI stops printing Rs 2000 notes, focus turns to new Rs 200 notes

●  Hero MotoCorp Q1 profit rises 3.5% on higher sales

●  Amtek Auto bankruptcy case admitted by NCLT Chandigarh bench

●  PSU banks plan capital raising amid NPA clean-up

●  HDFC Bank’s impeccable asset quality gets a farm loan waiver blow


Financial Express


●  RBI processing old notes to verify numerical accuracy, says Arun Jaitley

●  GlaxoSmithKline Q1 net profit dives 63 per cent to Rs 26 crore

●  GST reduced taxes for commodities consumed by weaker section

●  India will need $4.5 tn by 2040 for infrastructure: Report



 Financial Chronicle



●  Sensex hits fresh peak of 32,135.91; Nifty at 9,939.30

●  KKR to buy WebMD in $2.8 billion deal

●  Govt sets up expert panel to script a turnaround story for Sail

●  Nifty gets a helping hand from key sectors

●  KKR to buy WebMD in $2.8 billion deal




Source: Economic Times, Business Standard, Business Line, Mint, Financial Express & Financial Chronicle











More will update soon!!