Fundamental Aspect
Jeera futures traded with dull note on muted demand from retailers and stockists at the spot market. However, tight supplies from the producing regions capped some losses. As per the trader source, jeera arrival during first 20 days of July recorded only 2,396 tonnes compared to 5,872 tonnes in June for the same time period. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016-17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI.
Turmeric futures edged lower for the fourth consecutive session due to fall in demand at the spot market. Further, good sowing progress and monsoon rains in Telangana and Karnataka too fuelled the downtrend. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 19-Jul-17, up 90% to 33,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 28,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per trader source, about 12,623 tonnes arrived in first 20 days in July compared to 20,623 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the latest data release by the government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Soybean futures traded marginally higher as speculators enlarged their positions on reports of lower sowing compared to last year. Further, expectation of good crushing demand on reports of hike in import duty too supported soybean prices. Meanwhile, US soybeans rose after the US Department of Agriculture said more of the crop had been damaged by recent dry weather than expected. However, expectation of revival of monsoon in central India, capped some gains. As per the latest government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 84.6 lakh hectares till last week, down about 17.8% on year. Last year, the acreage was 102.8 lakh hectares. The area under the crop fell as some farmers are shifting to more profitable crops such as cotton, as oilseeds fetched poor returns last season. In Madhya Pradesh, the acreage of the crop was at 40.1 lakh ha, down from 49.7 lakh ha in the previous year. In Rajasthan, another major grower of the oilseed, soybean was sown across 786,800 ha, as against 10.2 lakh ha in the year-ago period.
MCX Cotton traded moderately higher as market participants initiated fresh buying on concern about excess rains in cotton growing areas in Gujarat. However, good progress in cotton sowing in the country capped further gain. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 104.1 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher 20% compared to last year acreage of 86.6 lakh ha for same period.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Support at 19050 and Resistance at 19450.
Looks weak and likely to touch 19050. Break and sustain below 19050 will see sharp downside panic in it towards 18720---18500 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 19450.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 19450.
Trade with levels only.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Support at 4350 and Resistance at 4480.
Break and sustain above 4480 with volume will take it to 4540---4600 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 4350.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4350 mark.
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric (Aug)
Last week we clearly indicated that 7800---8000 act as major hurdle and we will see sharp correction in it.
Today made a fresh low of 6786.
Now what to expect??
Major Support is at 6750 and Resistance is 7050.
If prices unable to hold below 6750 we can see well upside momentum in it. Close above 7050 will take it to 7200 and 7360 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 6750.
Fresh selling can be seen below 6750.
Trade with levels only.
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3450.
Close above 3450 with volume will take it to 3530---3580 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 3370.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3370 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 638 and resistance is 645.
Either side break or close with volume will set the further trend in it.
Fresh buying can be seen above 645.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Can accumulate more buy on decline near 4900 which will take it to 5120---5200 mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3700.
Close above 3700 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Our buy call in Mentha Oil from 970---1046.1 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support is 1010 and Resistance is 1048.
We expect a bit correction here in prices and if it is unable to hold above 1048 then we can see profit booking activity at higher level in it till 1010.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 1010 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
