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Friday, July 21, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 21st July 17



Gold futures ended higher on Thursday after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said ECB policymakers would discuss potential changes to the bank's bond-buying scheme in the autumn, lifting the euro to a 14-month high. Meanwhile, the Labor Department released a report showing that a much bigger than expected decrease in first-time claims for US unemployment benefits in the week ending July 15th. Initial jobless claims fell to 233,000, a decrease of 15,000 from the previous week's revised level of 248,000.

Crude oil futures settled lower on Thursday after reversing off multi-week highs amid profit-taking and nagging worries about supply overhang. Market focus shifted to domestic crude production that climbed 32,000 bbl to a fresh two-year high of 9.429 million bbl last week. In addition, US demand was mixed, with data showing gasoline falling 194,000 bpd last week, while distillate demand spiked 476,000 bpd on the week and up 10.6% higher year-over-year. Overseas, supply continues to rise in Libya and Nigeria, while Iraq plans to increase its output by the end of this year despite the fact that Iraq is part of an ongoing OPEC agreement to cut output by 1.2 million bpd through March 2018.


Copper futures ended higher on Thursday on expectations of solid demand from top consumer China after industrial output grew strongly in the second quarter.



Technical Level


Gold 





Support at 29280 and Resistance at 29400

Break and sustain above 29400 will take it to 29550—29700++ else could touch its support level of 29280.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 29280


Silver




Support at 37700 and Resistance at 38000

Break and sustain above 38000 will take it to 38200—38450++ mark else could touch its support level of 37700.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 37700 mark.




Crude




Support at 3025 and Resistance at 3080

Break and sustain below 3025 will take it to 3000---2980 and then to 2950 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3080.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3080 mark.


Natural Gas 





Support 193.50 and Resistance 197

Break and sustain below 193.50 will take it to 191—189 and then to 187 mark else could touch its resistance level of 197 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 197.00


Copper 




Support at 385 and Resistance 391.50

Above 391.50... Rally remain continue till 394—397++ mark else could touch its support level of 385 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 385












More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels,Derivative idea along with Equity Pick of the day 21st July 2017






Nifty 9,873 /Sensex 31,904/ Bank Nifty 24,213

12 Advances / 39 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


 Benchmarks end with modest cut

Indian equity benchmarks undo all the good work done in early part of the session and ended the lackluster day of trade slightly in red, as traders remained on sidelines.Though, markets made an optimistic start with Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statement, describing the Goods and Services Tax (GST) as a ‘win- win’ deal for all as it will expand the tax net, end ‘inspector raj’ and bring down prices of goods. Jaitley added that prices of goods have come down between four to eight percent since its roll-out on July 1. Traders also took some encouragement with a private report that India will reclaim its position as the fastest growing major global economy this year, partly propelled by benefits from a new tax system and bolstered by an expected central bank interest rate cut.
Market took U-turn in second half of trade where traders opted to book profit ahead of RIL’s Q1 numbers slated to be announced after market hours. According to a private poll, the company is expected to post consolidated net sales of Rs 76,326 crore and net profit of Rs 7,764.5 crore for the three months ended 30 June. Though, downside remained capped, as traders get some solace with the Asian Development Bank’s report stating that the South Asia will remain the fastest growing of all sub-regions in Asia and the Pacific, while Indian economy is expected to achieve previous growth projections 7.4 percent in 2017 and 7.6 percent in 2018 on the back of strong consumption demand.
On the global front, European markets were trading in green in early deals, supported by a surge in global stocks, as investors awaited a rate decision by the European Central Bank (ECB). Asian markets ended mostly in green on Thursday. The Bank of Japan kept monetary policy steady and pushed back again the timing for achieving its 2 percent inflation target, reinforcing expectations it will lag well behind major global central banks in dialing back its massive stimulus programme.
Back home, the government said that tax rates under the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will not be revised unless there is an anomaly, but promised to go slow on enforcement actions in the first six months on genuine mistakes. On the sectoral front, oil and gas stocks remained in focus after the government cleared the sale of Hindustan Petroleum to flagship explorer ONGC with the aim of creating an integrated oil company.



FII’s Activity 20-July-17


The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6580.42 crore against gross selling of Rs 5563.54 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1016.88 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1079.61 crore with gross sales of Rs 244.05 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 835.56 crore in debt.



Now what to expect??



Nifty Levels





Above 9950 will see rally till 9980---10035 mark. 

Panic will see only close below 9830 level only



Bank Nifty Levels




Support at 24000 and resistance at 24250

Close above 24250 will take to 24500---24650+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24000 on closing basis

Trade with levels only



Daily Derivative Outlook 21th July


• Nifty July 2017 futures closed at 9888.05 on Thursday at a premium of 14.75 points over spot closing of 9873.30.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10000 strikes, and maximum put writing was seen at 9800 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9800 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9800

• INFIBEAM (16.55%), ICICIPRULI (15.60%), UBL (9.30%), ENGINERSIN (16%) and MINDTREE (5.40%) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

• JUSTDIAL (-23.17%), ULTRACEMCO (-16.16%), OIL(-15.70%), REPCOHOME (-14.90%) and CUMMINS (-12.80%) were the top open  interest losers in the market. 

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.35 against 1.49 for Tuesday’s trade. 


Derivative Idea


PFC losses around 4.70% of open interest as Short Unwinding on Daily basis.

On Daily charts, PFC looks positive above 128.50, Break and sustain above 128.50 will take it to  135—138 and then to 142++. Support and stop loss below 122.50 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.


Trading Recommendation


Buy PFC (July) Future above 128.50. Stop Loss 122.50. Target 135.00—138.00 and then to 142.00++



Today's Top Pick



Time Technoplast


Above 167 will see upside rally till 174---180++ mark in days to come.
Looks weak only if close below 160.
Any sharp down fall will be buying opportunity in it.



Corporate Action Ex-Date Today



V-Guard Industries Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.70 Per Share

Shree Cements Limited -Dividend - Rs 24 Per Share

Piramal Enterprises Limited - Dividend - Rs 21 Per Share



Results Today


Can Fin Homes Limited

Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Limited
Indian Bank

Ashok Leyland Limited

Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Limited

Resuts on Saturday 22nd th July

Divi's Laboratories Limited

SREI Infrastructure Finance Limited














More will update soon!!

Thursday, July 20, 2017

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 20th July 17

                        

Gold futures ended lower on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies on the back of economic data that topped analysts’ expectations, reducing investors’ appetite in the metal. The Commerce Department showed that the housing starts surged up by 8.3 percent to an annual rate of 1.215 million in June from the revised May estimate of 1.122 million.


Crude oil futures traded marginally higher on MCX as speculators enlarged positions after the US EIA reported Wednesday that domestic crude supplies fell by 4.7 million barrels for the week ended July 14. That followed hefty declines in each of the previous two weeks.

Copper futures edged higher on MCX as traders widened their bets amid firm global cues. Further, pick-up in demand from consuming industries in the spot market too fuelled the uptrend.




Technical Level


Gold 





Support at 29000 and Resistance at 29300

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further till then traders can trade in range with strict stop loss.



Silver






Support at 37300 and Resistance at 37825

Trend looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 37825. Break and sustain above 37825 will take it to 38000—38150++ mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 37300 mark.




Crude



Support at 3020 and Resistance at 3080


Break and sustain above 3080 will take it to 3130—3150++ mark else could touch its support level of 3020 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3020 mark.


Natural Gas 






Support 196 and Resistance 200

Close above 200 will take it to 203—205++ mark else could touch its support level of 196 mark again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 196


Copper 




Support at 385 and Resistance 390.50

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.


Economic Data



06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 247K Forecast 245K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.


06:00 P.M Philly Fed Manufacturing Index:  Previous 27.6 Forecast 23.4 Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Manufacturing Index – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.








08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 57B, Forecast 39B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.











More will update soon!!

Agro Commodity Update (20-July-2017)




Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon picks up pace, weekly rainfall up by 11%.
As per the latest report of India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 75.3 millimeters (mm) of rainfall from July 12 to July 19. The country was expected to witness 67.6 mm of rainfall. The surplus showers in the central and western parts of the country pushed the overall average into the positive territory, taking the cumulative average for the whole season, as on July 19, 1% above the normal estimate. The revival should boost planting of oilseed crops mainly soybean and groundnut in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The IMD data also reported that, the rainfall was normal in almost 71% of the country, while the remaining 29% suffered from deficient monsoon showers in the given week.

Soybean futures on NCDEX counter fell on Wednesday due to profit booking activity taken by the market participants on good rains in MP and Rajasthan. We have seen a sideways trading this week on lower acreage and steady demand. As per the government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares. As per the latest update from SOPA, India's exports of soy meal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tons in June. As of June-end, soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tones, over three times the amount a year ago.

Refined Soy Oil futures traded almost flat with lower bias due to fresh selling by the market participants on reports of higher stock levels in the country coupled with steady demand from the stockiest. Moreover, delayed decision on hike in import duty too pressurizes prices. Increase in tariff duty by government for the current fortnight cannot support prices. The base import price of crude soyoil has been hike by $9 to $812 per tonne for the second half of July. Base import prices of edible oils are revised every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. The prices were last revised on Jun 15. As per the latest update by SEA, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from Nov-May to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period.
Turmeric future on NCDEX counter continues to fall for the third consecutive day on Wednesday on profit booking by the market participants from 8 month higher prices. However, good physical demand from upcountry buyers and stockiest may support prices in near term. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 13-Jul-17, up 14.3% to 24,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 8,627 tones arrived in first 15 days in July compared to 10,703 tons in previous fortnight. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tones, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.



Technical Aspect


Jeera (Aug) 


Support at 19350 and Resistance at 19900.

We will maintain our bullish view in it. Break and sustain above 19900 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20250---20500+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 19350.



Castor Seed (Aug)


Support at 4480 and Resistance at 4560.

Break and close above 4560 will take it to 4600---4650++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 4480.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4480 mark.

Trade with levels only



Guar seed (Oct)


Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3450.

Break and sustain below 3370 will take it to 3330--3300 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 3450.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3450 only.

Trade with levels only.


Soya bean (Aug)


Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Trade with levels only.


Soyaref (Aug)


Support at 632 and resistance is 645.

Break and sustain above 645 will take it to 652---657 and then 665 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 632. Traders can accumulate the position on decline near 636.

Fresh selling can be seen below 632.

Trade with levels only.



Dhaniya (Aug)


Support at 4800 and resistance is 5100.

Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation



RM Seed (Aug)


Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720

Looks positive .Close above 3720 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.Traders can accumulate more position around 3600.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.

Trade with levels only.



Mentha oil (July)


Support seen at 946 and resistance is at 980. 

Looks positive and could touch 980.Break and close above 980 will fuel more power in it towards 998 and 1012 ++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 946.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 946 mark.

Trade with levels only.










More will update soon!!

Commodity Alert (IMD): Monsoon picks up pace, weekly rainfall up by 11%..



According to the latest weather update by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 75.3 millimeters (mm) of rainfall from July 12 to July 19. According to the IMD, the country was expected to witness 67.6 mm of rainfall. The surplus showers in the central and western parts of the country pushed the overall average into the positive territory, taking the cumulative average for the whole season, as on July 19, 1% above the normal estimate. The revival should boost planting of oilseed crops mainly soybean and groundnut in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The IMD data also showed that rainfall was normal in almost 71% of the country, while the remaining 29% suffered from deficient monsoon showers in the given week.



                                                                    Source : Business standard                        











More will update soon!!

Currency Report 20th July 2017



Rupee ends slightly higher against dollar, now eyes on ECB meet today.


Continuing its rising streak for the third straight day, Indian rupee ended slightly higher against dollar on Tuesday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. On the global front, the dollar traded near its multi- month lows against a currency basket in the wake of a steep sell-off sparked by fears that US President Donald Trump is having difficulties implementing his policy agenda. The dollar index which is trading around 94.7, noted down by 0.38% from its previous close of $95.12. The 10-year bond yield was at 6.456%, compared to its previous close of 6.464%. Traders are cautious ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank policy meeting and next week’s US Federal Reserve meeting.


USDINR July



Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.60

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.



GBPINR


Support at 83.70 and Resistance at 84.10

Break and sustain below 83.70 will take it to 83.45—83.20 and then to 83.00 mark else could touch its resistance level of 84.10 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 84.10



EURINR

Support at 74.00 and Resistance at 74.50

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 74.50,Break and sustain above 74.50 will see more upside rally in it, else could touch its support level of 74.00.

Fresh selling can be initiated 74.00.

Trade with levels only.


JPYINR

Support is at 57.20 and Resistance is at 57.55.

Above 57.55 rally remain continue till 57.80—58.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.20


Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.20

Trade with levels only.












More will update soon!!

BoJ Policy Update



BOJ leaves policy rates on hold…

The Bank of Japan pushed back its forecast for reaching 2% inflation for a sixth time under the leadership of Haruhiko Kuroda while keeping its policy settings on hold, further highlighting Japan’s struggle to achieve stable price growth.

(Impact: Expected the same with Market:Neutral)


Source: wall street







More will update soon!!