Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon picks up pace, weekly rainfall up by 11%.
As per the latest report of India Meteorological Department (IMD), India received 75.3 millimeters (mm) of rainfall from July 12 to July 19. The country was expected to witness 67.6 mm of rainfall. The surplus showers in the central and western parts of the country pushed the overall average into the positive territory, taking the cumulative average for the whole season, as on July 19, 1% above the normal estimate. The revival should boost planting of oilseed crops mainly soybean and groundnut in Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan. The IMD data also reported that, the rainfall was normal in almost 71% of the country, while the remaining 29% suffered from deficient monsoon showers in the given week.
Soybean futures on NCDEX counter fell on Wednesday due to profit booking activity taken by the market participants on good rains in MP and Rajasthan. We have seen a sideways trading this week on lower acreage and steady demand. As per the government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares. As per the latest update from SOPA, India's exports of soy meal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tons in June. As of June-end, soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tones, over three times the amount a year ago.
Refined Soy Oil futures traded almost flat with lower bias due to fresh selling by the market participants on reports of higher stock levels in the country coupled with steady demand from the stockiest. Moreover, delayed decision on hike in import duty too pressurizes prices. Increase in tariff duty by government for the current fortnight cannot support prices. The base import price of crude soyoil has been hike by $9 to $812 per tonne for the second half of July. Base import prices of edible oils are revised every fortnight, based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. The prices were last revised on Jun 15. As per the latest update by SEA, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from Nov-May to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period.
Turmeric future on NCDEX counter continues to fall for the third consecutive day on Wednesday on profit booking by the market participants from 8 month higher prices. However, good physical demand from upcountry buyers and stockiest may support prices in near term. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 13-Jul-17, up 14.3% to 24,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 8,627 tones arrived in first 15 days in July compared to 10,703 tons in previous fortnight. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tones, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Support at 19350 and Resistance at 19900.
We will maintain our bullish view in it. Break and sustain above 19900 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20250---20500+++ mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19350.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Support at 4480 and Resistance at 4560.
Break and close above 4560 will take it to 4600---4650++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 4480.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4480 mark.
Trade with levels only
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3450.
Break and sustain below 3370 will take it to 3330--3300 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 3450.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3450 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 632 and resistance is 645.
Break and sustain above 645 will take it to 652---657 and then 665 mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 632. Traders can accumulate the position on decline near 636.
Fresh selling can be seen below 632.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5100.
Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720
Looks positive .Close above 3720 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.Traders can accumulate more position around 3600.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 946 and resistance is at 980.
Looks positive and could touch 980.Break and close above 980 will fuel more power in it towards 998 and 1012 ++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 946.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 946 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
