Update on Nifty, Bank Nifty, Derivative idea along with Equity Pick of the day 20 July 2017

Nifty 9,899 /Sensex 31,955/ Bank Nifty 24,152

41 Advances / 10 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Bulls back on Dalal Street after a day off; Sensex ends shy of 32k mark

Indian equity benchmarks once again back on track with frontline gauges, erasing most of their previous session losses, settled almost at 32,000 (Sensex) and 9,900 (Nifty) levels. Markets traded with full traction throughout the session, as sentiments remained up-beat with NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Arvind Panagariya’s statement that India’s GDP could rise to about $8 trillion over the next 15 years if the country registers an economic growth of 8 percent annually and come very close to eliminating abject poverty entirely. Traders also took some encouragement with rating agency Fitch’s latest report stating that new indirect tax regime Goods and Services Tax (GST) is likely to be beneficial for auto, cement and organised retail sectors, but will have a negative impact on oil and gas, and SME sectors.

Rally got extended in last leg of trade with private report stating that India will reclaim its position as the fastest growing major global economy this year, partly propelled by benefits from a new tax system and bolstered by an expected central bank interest rate cut. Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s statements that the GST is a win- win deal for all as it will expand the tax net, end inspector raj and bring down prices of goods too supported the sentiments.

Positive opening in European counters too aided sentiments, as investors took stock of a series of corporate announcements from across the continent. Asian markets ended mostly in green, with China turning around after a few days of losses. A poll found Japanese manufacturers and service providers’ business confidence held steady at high levels in July, underlining the central bank’s upbeat view on the economy.

Back home, pharma stocks remained on buyers’ radar on report that the government is looking at introducing a new National Pharmaceuticals Policy and is already in the process of working out details. The oil & gas stocks too remained in action, as the government is likely to consider the sale of government's 51.11 per cent stake in Hindustan Petroleum Corp (HPCL) to Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) for over Rs 28,000 crore.

FII’s Activity 19-July-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 6645.22 crore against gross selling of Rs 6269.37 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 375.85 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1445.59 crore with gross sales of Rs 574.35 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 871.24 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Above 9950 will see rally till 9980---10035 mark. 

Panic will see only close below 9830 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 24000 and resistance at 24250

Close above 24250 will take to 24500---24650+++ mark.

Support and stop loss below 24000 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 20th July

• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 19.55 points versus a Premium of 19.15 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 9900 strikes, and maximum put writing was seen at 9900 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9800 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9800

• JPASSOCIAT (39%), PIDILITIND (20%), RELCAPITAL (18%), INDIANB (16%) and MINDTREE (15%) were  the top open interest gainers in the market.

• CHOLAFIN (-19%), GRASIM (-19%), HEXAWARE (-10%), ITC (-10%) and ACC (-9%) were the top open  interest losers in the market. 

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.49 against 1.29 for Tuesday’s trade. 

Around 3.41 lakh shares were shaded in open interest with an increase in price. This is indicative 

of short covering by market participants in today’s  trade.

• On the options front, the volatility index has decreased in today’s trade by around 2%

Derivative Idea

DISHTV added around 11.30% of open interest as long build up on Daily basis.

On Daily charts, Above 82.00 rally remain continue till 87.50—90.00 and then to 93.00. Support and stop loss below 77.30. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy DISHTV (July) Future above 83.00. Stop Loss 77.30. Target 87.50—90.00 and then to 93.00++

Today's Top Pick

SAIL

Above 63.50 will see upside rally till 64.50---65.50++ mark in days to come.

Looks bearish only if close below 62.50.

Corporate Action

Idfc Bank Limited - Dividend - Re 0.75 Per Share 

Bharti Infratel Limited- Dividend - Rs 4 Per Share

Idfc Limited- Dividend - Re 0.25 Per Share

Biocon Limited - Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1/- Per Share

Tata Steel Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 10/- Per Share

Result Today

Bajaj Auto Limited

Wipro Limited

NIIT Technologies Limited

RBL Bank Limited

Reliance Industries Limited

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited

Hindustan Zinc Limited

More Will Update Soon!!

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Technical Pick – Motherson sumi

Technical Pick – Motherson sumi

           

• Motherson sumi is finding support at 315 and resistance above 322 

•On Daily chart, Motherson sumi is showing breakout point above 322.Break and sustain above 322 will see nonstop rally in Motherson sumi till 327--337++ in weeks to come.

• Motherson sumi , has been trading in a broader range of 314--327 for last one month.

• Daily 14 period RSI has turned up from near levels. As per the bullish high low theory of 40-70 levels, the daily RSI is expected to move up to 70- 75 levels from the current reading of 63. This could mean Continuation of upside momentum in the stock price ahead possibly a breakout also this time.

• Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 327--337+++mark in coming weeks. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 315 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms. 

Trading Recommendation

Buy Mothersonsumi above 322 and for the initial upside target of 327—337++ mark with stop loss below 315 on closing basis.                   

      More will update soon!!     

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Agro Commodity Update (19-July-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon Alert (Sky met): The southwest monsoon current is likely to pick up pace over most parts of north western India between Jul 21-24, private weather forecaster Sky met said. The trough currently over central India is likely to shift towards north India, bringing showers over the Indo-Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi-National Capital Region and Haryana in the coming days. On Tuesday, while central India recorded 103% above normal rainfall at 23.6 mm, northwest India received 24% below normal rains, the IMD said in an update.

Soybean August futures settled with 1.24% gains on Tuesday due to lower acreage, irregular rains in soybean growing areas and lower arrivals in the physical market also supported the sentiment of its prices. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares. The market arrivals have been diminishing and there is also good demand. As per the latest report of SOPA, India's exports of soymeal rises to 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. As of June-end, soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago.

CPO in MCX counter settled lower yesterday, tracking weak cues from Malaysian palm oil prices. Government is considering on hike in import duty to have support prices in the previous two sessions. However, cut the base import price of CPO by $4 per tonnes but increase RBD Palmolein by $4 per tonnes for the second fortnight of July capped further rise. As per the latest report of SEA, the imports of palm oil increase by 35% on Year to 8.2 lakh tonnes compared to 6.1 lt last year. Moreover, during the first 8 months of current oil year, the imports are higher by 5.7% to 59.21 lt as compared with the 56 lt last year same period.

In line with our expectation, Turmeric future hit lower freeze yesterday due to profit booking by the market participants from 8 month higher prices. However, good physical demand from upcountry buyers and stockists may support prices in near term. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 13-Jul-17, up 14.3% to 24,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 8,627 tonnes arrived in first 15 days in July compared to 10,703 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.

Technical Aspect

Jeera (Aug) 

Support at 19350 and Resistance at 19900.

We will maintain our bullish view in it. Break and sustain above 19900 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20250---20500+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 19350.

Castor Seed (Aug)

Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4630.

Break and close above 4630 will take it to 4680---4730++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 4550.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.

Trade with levels only

Guar seed (Oct)

Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3440.

Close above 3440 upside rally likely to continue towards 3490 and 3530++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3370.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3370 only.

Trade with levels only.

Soya bean (Aug)

Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref (Aug)

Support at 636 and resistance is 645.

Break and sustain below 636 will take it to 632---627 and then 622 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 645.

Fresh buying can be seen above 645.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.

Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720

Close above 3720 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (July)

Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 970. 

Break and close above 970 will fuel more power in it towards 988 and 1005 ++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 935.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Monsoon Alert: Heavy rains likely in parts of west India until Sun

IMD expects heavy rains in parts of west India until Sunday. In Madhya Maharashtra, Konkan and Goa heavy rains are expected over the next four days, IMD said. Heavy rains are likely in parts of Gujarat during Fri-Sat, with showers intensifying towards the weekend, the weather bureau said.    Marathawada is expected to receive rains today and Thursday, it said.    Monsoon rains at this time are likely to benefit the kharif sowing of pulses, coarse grains, cotton, and oilseed crops in the region.

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Technical Pick – Repco Home

Technical Pick – Repco Home 

Repco home is finding support at 775 and resistance above 800.

On Daily chart, Repco home is having Trendline breakout point above 800.Break and sustain above 800 will see nonstop rally in Repco home till 840++ in days to come.

Traders don’t go for aggressive or positional selling at all because trend looks positive and we expect rally to remain continue till 840+++mark in coming days. For positional trade, stop loss seeing below 775 on closing basis which in unlikely to breach in near terms.

Trading Recommendation

 Buy Repco home above 800 and for the initial upside target of 840++ mark with stop loss below 775 on closing basis.

More will update soon!!

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Commodity Alert: LME base metals down on firm dollar, rise in inventory

Base metals contracts on LME fell today due to a firm dollar and rise in inventories at LME warehouses. The three-month nickel contract was down 1.0% at $9,690 per tn and zinc was down 0.4% at $2,782 per tn.A strong greenback makes dollar-denominated base metals costlier for holders of other currencies and reduces the demand for the metals. Base metal contracts also came under pressure after zinc and nickel stocks at LME warehouses rose on Tuesday after declining in the last few weeks.

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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API Crude oil Inventory Update

The American Petroleum Institute reported an unexpected climb of 1.6 million barrels in U.S. crude supplies for the week ended July 14.The API data also showed a drop of 5.4 million barrels in gasoline supplies, while inventories of distillates were down 2.9 million barrels.

Supply data from the Energy Information Administration will be released today evening which is expected to come at -3.6M against -7.6M noted previously.

Source: Market watch

More will update soon!!

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Global Forex Update: Asia FX: Mixed; outcomes of BoJ, ECB policy meets eyed

                        

Asian currencies were mixed against the US dollar today as investors remained on the side-lines ahead of the outcomes of the monetary policy meetings of Bank of Japan and European Central Bank, both due Thursday.

Source: Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 19th July 2017

Rupee ends slightly higher against dollar

Continuing its rising streak for the second straight day, Indian rupee ended slightly higher against dollar on Tuesday due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Local currency got some support with private survey stating that Indian CEOs are confident about the growth prospects of the country over the next three years, compared to that of global economy. Besides, dollar’s weakness against some currencies overseas supported the rupee, though heavy losses in the equity market capped the further gain. On the global front, dollar sank on Tuesday as two Republican senators rejected their party’s bill repealing Obamacare, effectively killing it and throwing Donald Trump’s economic agenda into doubt.

USDINR July

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.60

Trading in range either side breakout will decide further.

GBPINR

Support at 83.85 and Resistance at 84.20

Break and sustain below 83.85 will take it to 83.60—83.40 and then to 83.10 mark else could touch its resistance level of 84.20 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 84.20

EURINR

Support at 74.15 and Resistance at 74.50

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 74.50,Break and sustain above 74.50 will see more upside rally in it, else could touch its support level of 74.15.

Fresh selling can be initiated 74.15

JPYINR

Above 57.50 rally remain continue till 57.80—58.00++ mark else could touch its support level of 57.30

Fresh selling can be initiated below 57.30

More will update soon!!

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⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 19th July 2017

Nifty 9,827 /Sensex 31,710/ Bank Nifty 24,022

29 Advances / 22 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Benchmarks snap bullish run; Sensex breaches 31,800 mark

Tuesday turned out to be a daunting session of trade for Indian equity benchmarks where frontline gauges ended with a cut of around a percent, breaching their crucial 31,800 (Sensex) and 9,850 (Nifty) levels, as market participants opted to book profit at record levels. Markets started the session on pessimistic note, as traders remained concern with the industry body Associated Chambers of Commerce & Industry of India’s (ASSOCHAM) latest report stating that the inflation outlook is expected to remain quite muted at least till festival season of Durga Puja and Diwali. Adding to the pessimism, a private report showed that India’s Current Account Deficit (CAD) is likely to widen to 1.3% of GDP in 2017 from 0.6% in 2016, largely owing to stronger domestic growth in the second half of this year. The report highlighted that the import demand is expected to resume once GST disruptions settle down after July. The report said lower commodity prices and adverse base effects will continue to cap the year-on-year growth rates in second half of 2017, partly offsetting the continued recovery in advanced economies.

Besides, some concerns also spread among the inventors with Fitch Ratings’ latest report that new indirect tax regime GST will have a negative impact on oil and gas, and SME sectors. Investors shrugged off private survey stating that Indian CEOs are confident about the growth prospects of the country over the next three years, compared to that of global economy. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court granted one week’s time to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to respond to a report of a committee appointed to deal with bad loans with banks that have crossed Rs 8 lakh crore.

Weak opening in European counters too dampened sentiments on account of a disappointing set of results from blue chips including Ericsson and Lufthansa, while scaled-back expectations of rate hikes at central banks spurred some profit-taking in financials. Asian markets ended mixed, as passage of a US healthcare Bill grew doubtful, and as investors bet the Federal Reserve will be more cautious about raising interest rates.

Back home, stocks related to cigarette space remained under pressure, as the GST Council raised the cess on cigarettes to take away an estimated Rs 5,000 crore annual ‘windfall’ manufacturers could have reaped from lower GST rates. The telecom stocks too edged lower despite the Telecom Minister Manoj Sinha’s statement that the Communications Ministry will 'analyse' the impact of GST on telecom subscribers, and approach the Finance Ministry in case consumers or players face “genuine problems”.

FII’s Activity 18-July-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4567.92 crore against gross selling of Rs 4192.13 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 375.79 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1037.17 crore with gross sales of Rs 414.37 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 622.80 crore in debt.

Now what to expect next??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9830 and resistance at 9950

Below 9830 will see panic till 9780---9750 mark else it could test it's resistance level of 9880---9950 again.

Rally will see only close above 9950 mark only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23800 and resistance at 24060

Close above 24060 will take to 24250---24400.

Support and stop loss below 23800 on closing basis

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 19th July

•Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 19.15 points versus a Premium of 17.20 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 10000 strikes, and maximum put writing was seen at 9800 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9800 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9800

• ITC (23%), HAVELLS (13%), PCJEWELLER (13%), INDIANB (12%) and ICICIPRULI (10%) were the topvopen interest gainers in the market.

• HDFC (-13%), GRASIM (-12%), OIL (-11%), POWERGRID (-10%) and HINDALCO (-9%) were the top open interest losers in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.29 against 1.67 for Monday’s trade. 

• Around 18.02 lakh shares were shaded in open interest. A decrease in price indicates that long unwinding was observed by market participants in today’s trade.

• On the options front, the volatility index has increased in today’s trade by around 0.10%.

Derivative Idea

IDFC added around 0.4% of open interest as long build up on Daily basis.

On Daily charts, IDFC has resistance at 57.60, Break and sustain above 57.60 will take it to 59.50—60.50 and then to 62.00+++ mark in days to come. Support and stop loss below 55.30. IDFC is trading above 21 DEMA. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy IDFC (July) Future above 57.60. Stop Loss 55.30. Target 59.50—60.50 and then to 62.00++

Result Today

Cesc Limited - Annual General Meeting

Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 2/- Per Share

Exide Industries Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 0.80/- Per Share

Grasim Industries Limited- Scheme of Arrangement


https://www.nseindia.com/content/circulars/FAOP35387.pdf

More Will Update Soon!!

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