Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert (Sky met): The southwest monsoon current is likely to pick up pace over most parts of north western India between Jul 21-24, private weather forecaster Sky met said. The trough currently over central India is likely to shift towards north India, bringing showers over the Indo-Gangetic plains of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Delhi-National Capital Region and Haryana in the coming days. On Tuesday, while central India recorded 103% above normal rainfall at 23.6 mm, northwest India received 24% below normal rains, the IMD said in an update.
Soybean August futures settled with 1.24% gains on Tuesday due to lower acreage, irregular rains in soybean growing areas and lower arrivals in the physical market also supported the sentiment of its prices. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 73.44 lakh hectares till last week, down about 11.7% on year. Last year, the acreage was 83.14 lakh hectares. The market arrivals have been diminishing and there is also good demand. As per the latest report of SOPA, India's exports of soymeal rises to 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. As of June-end, soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago.
CPO in MCX counter settled lower yesterday, tracking weak cues from Malaysian palm oil prices. Government is considering on hike in import duty to have support prices in the previous two sessions. However, cut the base import price of CPO by $4 per tonnes but increase RBD Palmolein by $4 per tonnes for the second fortnight of July capped further rise. As per the latest report of SEA, the imports of palm oil increase by 35% on Year to 8.2 lakh tonnes compared to 6.1 lt last year. Moreover, during the first 8 months of current oil year, the imports are higher by 5.7% to 59.21 lt as compared with the 56 lt last year same period.
In line with our expectation, Turmeric future hit lower freeze yesterday due to profit booking by the market participants from 8 month higher prices. However, good physical demand from upcountry buyers and stockists may support prices in near term. In Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 13-Jul-17, up 14.3% to 24,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 8,627 tonnes arrived in first 15 days in July compared to 10,703 tonnes in previous fortnight. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Technical Aspect
Jeera (Aug)
Support at 19350 and Resistance at 19900.
We will maintain our bullish view in it. Break and sustain above 19900 will see sharp upside rally in it towards 20250---20500+++ mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 19350.
Castor Seed (Aug)
Support at 4550 and Resistance at 4630.
Break and close above 4630 will take it to 4680---4730++ mark in near term else it could touch its support level of 4550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4550 mark.
Trade with levels only
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3370 and Resistance at 3440.
Close above 3440 upside rally likely to continue towards 3490 and 3530++ mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 3370.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3370 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980---2960 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 636 and resistance is 645.
Break and sustain below 636 will take it to 632---627 and then 622 mark in near term else, could touch its resistance level of 645.
Fresh buying can be seen above 645.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5200.
Either side break or close with volume will decide further. Till then trade in a range with strict stop loss and wait for confirmation
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3550 and resistance seen at 3720
Close above 3720 will take it to 3760---3800 and then 3880+++ mark in days to come else, could touch its support level of 3550.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3550.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 970.
Break and close above 970 will fuel more power in it towards 988 and 1005 ++mark in near term else, could touch its support level of 935.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
