Currency Report 13th July 2017

Rupee ends marginally higher against dollar…

The Indian rupee recovered marginally to close at 64.54 yesterday against the US currency on fresh dollar selling by banks and exporters. A bearish greenback tone overseas largely aided the rupee recovery. A spectacular bull-run in the stock market along with robust capital flows further brightened the rupee sentiment. Retail inflation eased to a record low in June while, factory output growth slowed sharply during the month of May, increasing pressure on the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut interest rates in there next schedule of monitory policy. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowed to 1.54% in June from 2.18% in May. However, the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) reported down to 1.7% in May compared with 3.1% noted in the previous month.

USDINR July

Support at 64.30 and Resistance at 64.80

Looks weak, could touch its support level of 64.30…Break and sustain below 64.30 will take it to 64.08—63.90 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.80 mark.

Trade with levels only.

GBPINR

Support at 82.90 and Resistance at 83.40

Break and sustain above 83.40 will take it to 83.68—83.90 mark else could touch its support level of 82.90.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 82.90 mark.

Trade with levels only.

EURINR

Support at 73.60 and Resistance at 74.15

Looks positive and sustain above 74.15 will take it to 74.40—74.75 mark else could touch its support level of 73.60.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 73.60.

Trade with levels only.

JPYINR

Support at 56.80 and Resistance at 57.20

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 57.20, further upside rally will see on close above 57.20 mark else could touch its resistance level of 57.20 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 56.80

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty, Bank Nifty, Derivative idea along with Equity Pick of the day 13th July 2017

Nifty 9,816 /Sensex 31,805/ Bank Nifty 23,695

37 Advances / 14 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

 Benchmarks extend their record closing streak; Nifty surpasses 9,800 mark

Continuing their record closing streak, Indian equity benchmarks ended the range-bound session with a gain of around quarter a percent, with frontline gauges settling above their crucial 9,800 (Nifty) and 31,800 (Sensex) levels for the first time ever. Sentiments remained upbeat for most part of the day’s trade with statement of Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will help bring down the inflation by one to two percent by the end of this year. He also said that the government’s objective is to ensure that inflation does not increase, and added that the government has tried to keep items frequently used by the consumers under the lower tax bracket. Traders also took some encouragement with Finance minister Arun Jaitley’s statement where he called for more credit disbursement towards the unorganized sector, saying it will help push employment growth. Jaitley said diverting resources of banks and financial institutions through various schemes towards the unorganized sector will help create more jobs in the country.

However, gains remained capped, as traders opted to stay away from taking positions in risky assets ahead of the IIP and inflation data to be announced after the market hours today. Also, the street is keeping an eye on corporate earnings for further direction including Tata Consultancy Services scheduled on Thursday and Infosys on Friday. Some pressure crept in during the trade after CRISIL said that the sharp appreciation in the rupee against the dollar in recent months is likely to have dented the first-quarter (current fiscal) profitability of exporters that source locally and have limited pricing power.

Positive opening in European counters supported sentiments as investors look ahead to earnings reports and monitor the latest political developments in the US. Industrial output in the 19 countries sharing the euro currency rose by more than expected in May, aided by a spike in the production of capital goods and consumer durables. Asian markets ended mixed as investors across Asia are now looking forward to a raft of economic data coming out on Thursday and Friday.

Back home, appreciation in Indian rupee too aided sentiments. The Indian rupee strengthens marginally against the US dollar at the point of equity markets closing at 64.55 from its previous close of 64.58, on the back of increased selling of American currency by banks and exporter. On the sectoral front, stocks related to oil and gas space edged higher on the back of higher crude prices. Stocks from banking space edged higher on report that the finance ministry is gearing up to introduce a host of Bills, including the Banking Regulation (Amendment) Bill, repeal of State Bank of India (Subsidiary Banks) Act, 1959, among others, in the upcoming Monsoon Session. Liquor stocks like Tilaknagar Industries, Globus Spirits, United Breweries, United Spirits and Som Distilleries & Breweries too remained in focus on Supreme Court clarification that the ban on sale of alcohol within 500 m of any state or national highway will not cover roads within city limits if these lose the highway tag post denotification.

FII’s Activity 12-July-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 5676.71 crore against gross selling of Rs 5516.09 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 160.62 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 8907.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 1054.28 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 7852.98 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Nifty future rally continues. Hope you all are enjoying this rally. We are holding long from 9600 mark

Now what to expect???

Above 9830 will see rally till 9880---9920 and then to 10000++++++ mark in days to come

We will maintain revise stop loss of 9770. 

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23400 and resistance at 23800

Close above 23800 will see further upside rally till 24020---24050. Three consecutive closes + weekly close above 24050 will take to ???

Support and stop loss below 23400 on closing basis.

Daily Derivative Outlook 13th July

•  Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 6.25 points versus a Premium of 1.20 points.

• Maximum call writing was seen at 9900 strikes, and maximum put writing was seen at 9700 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 10000 CE and 9600 PE. Nifty likely to trade in range of 10000--9600

•  CHENNPETRO (63%), MGL (42%), PTC (26%), REPCOHOME (24%) and SINTEX (23%) were the top open interest gainers in the market. 

•  TORNTPHARM  (-9%),  VOLTAS  (-8%),  UPL  (-7%), ICICIPRULI (-5%) and NIITTECH (-5%) were the top open interest losers in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.34 against 1.39 for Tuesday's 's trade. 

•  Around 6.79 lakh shares were shaded in open interest  with  an  increase  in  price.  This  is  indicative of a  long buildup in yesterday's ’s trade. 

•  On the options front, the volatility index witnessed a rise of around 2.00%  in yesterday ’s trade.   

Derivative Idea

Adani Enterprise added around 11% of open interest as long buildup.

On Daily charts, Adani Enterprise has given a fresh breakout above 13mark and trading above 21 and 55 DEMA indicates upside momentum in it. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Traders can buy Adani Enterprise (July) future above 142.50 with stop loss of 137 for the upside  target of 148---150 and then to 155+++ mark

Or

Accumulate in panic around 139---137 with stop loss below 132 for the upside target of 148---150  and then to 155+++.

Today's Top Pick

CDSL

Above 405 will see upside rally till 420---426+++ mark in days to come.

Looks bearish only if close below 390.

Any sharp downside fall will be buying opportunity in it. 

Corporate Action Today

Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited- Bonus 1:2

Wipro Limited-Annual General Meeting

Dewan Housing Finance Corporation Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 3 per Share

Andhra Bank- Annual General Meeting

Bharti Airtel Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 1 per Share

Reliance Industries Limited- Dividend - Re 11 per Share

Larsen & Toubro Limited-- BONUS 1:2

Mahindra & Mahindra Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 13 per Share

Result Today

Tata Consultancy Services Limited

More Will Update Soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 12th July 17

Gold futures ended higher on Tuesday, as a drop in equities drove safe-haven buying and the US dollar retreated. Meanwhile, the Commerce Department released a report showing that the Wholesale inventories in the US rose by slightly more than anticipated in the month of May. The Commerce Department showed that wholesale inventories climbed by 0.4 percent in May following a revised 0.4 percent drop in April. Traders are looking ahead to Congressional testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Wednesday.

Crude oil futures bounced back and rallied on Tuesday, after U.S officials lowered their domestic oil production outlook for next year. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) cut the 2018 U.S. oil-output forecast by 1% to 9.9 mln bbls/day. Also, a report showed European product stockpiles fell despite an increase in refinery crude runs. European refineries increased their crude oil intake in June, but stocks of oil products, particularly diesel. US oil production has jumped more than 10 percent over the last year to 9.34 million bpd. Nigeria and Libya, OPEC members exempt from production limits, have also increased output

Copper futures traded higher on MCX as speculators enlarged positions, on pick-up in demand from consuming industries at the domestic spot market. Further, metal's strength at the London Metal Exchange (LME) also added support to copper prices’ uptrend.

Technical Level

Gold

Above 27820 rally remain continue till 28020—28050 mark

Support and stop loss below 27600

Silver

Support at 36550 and Resistance at 37150

Break and sustain above 37150 will take it to 37500—37750 mark else could touch its support level of 36550.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 36550 mark.

Crude

Support at 2920 and Resistance at 2980

Break and sustain above 2980 will take it to 3025--- 3080 mark else could touch its support level of 2920 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 2920.

Natural Gas 

Support 193 and Resistance 197

Break and sustain above 197 will take it to 200—203+++ mark else could touch its support level of 193

Fresh selling can be initiated below 193

Copper 

Support at 381.50 and Resistance 386

Looks positive and could touch its resistance level of 386. Further upside rally will see on close above 386 else could touch its support level of 381.50 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated above 381.50 only.

Economic Data

07:30 Fed Chair Yellen Testifies

08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -6.3M, Forecast -3.2M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Jeera, Turmeric and castorseed⁠⁠⁠⁠ 12 July 2017

Technical Level

Jeera (Aug)

Support at 18500 and Resistance at 19050.

Break and sustain above 19050 will take it to 19200—19350 and then to 19700+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 18500.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 18500.

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric (Aug)

Our buy call in Turmeric from 7120 to 7550 proven great. We are holding a long position from 5520 mark

Now what to expect?

Support at 7300 and Resistance at 7550.

We will maintain our bullish view in it .Break and close above 7550 will take it to 7680—7850+++ mark else could touch its support level of 7300.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 7300 mark.

Trade with levels only. If anything seems reversal will update you.

Castor Seed (Aug)

Support at 4420 and Resistance at 4480.

Looks positive and close above 4480 will take it to 4550---4620++ mark else could touch its support level of 4420.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4420 mark.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Crop Report: Rajasthan 2016-17 mustard crop seen up 21% on year

The agriculture department in Rajasthan has estimated mustard output in 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) to rise by 21% on year to 3.94 mln tn because of higher yields. Rajasthan is one of the major producers of mustard seed in the country. Chana production in the state is seen higher due to increased acreage following remunerative returns in 2015-16.Output of chana in Rajasthan is estimated to rise 66% on year to 1.39 mln tn, data from the state's farm ministry showed.

According to the fourth advance estimate, output of guar in Rajasthan the largest producer of the crop, may fall 37% on year to 1.4 mln tn in 2016-17.

             Source: Newswire         

More will update soon!!

           

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX coriander rises over 1% on bargain buying

Coriander futures on the NCDEX were up over 1% today as investors bought the commodity after prices fell to a near one-week low of 4,867 rupees per 100 kg on Tuesday. Prices of coriander also gained due to a decline in supply at markets in Rajasthan. In Kota, the benchmark market, the Badami variety was quoted at 5,325 rupees per 100 kg, while the Eagle variety was sold at 5,675 rupees, both up 100 rupees from the previous day. Arrivals of coriander in Rajasthan were pegged at 7,200 bags (1 bag = 40 kg) today, down 1,300 bags from Tuesday. 

Source: Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (12-July-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon Alert: IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated places in Odisha till Saturday. Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive rainfall today, and Gangetic West Bengal may get showers today and Thursday. Rice, maize and pulses are the key kharif crops grown in these states.

Turmeric futures traded up on account of uptick in domestic as well export demand in the spot market. Besides, restricted supplies and slow pace of sowing in producing states also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend. In Telangana (highest producing turmeric state), turmeric acreage as on 10-Jul-17, up 9.5% to 23,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.

Jeera traded higher as market participants initialize fresh buying on lower than expected stocks levels in the country. Arrival during the month of June marked lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,313 tonnes as on July 10 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.

Soybean August futures tumbled yesterday more than 2.00% due to fresh selling by the market participants on the back of profit booking activity. As per SOPA’s latest release, as of June-end soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago. As per the release, India's exports of soymeal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. Moreover, Government data marked, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares.

Cotton traded with lower bias, tracking weak international prices. In domestic market, there is fear a decline in yield due to deficient rainfall in major growing areas. Moreover, expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on cotton is less than manmade fibres also supported prices. As per IMD, the middle-, northern- and eastern parts of India received above-normal rainfall, the western and southern parts remained deficient last year, with reports of deficient rainfalls in large cotton-growing regions. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 71.8 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 5.8% compared to last year acreage of 68 lakh ha for same period.

Technical Aspect

Guar seed (Oct)

Support at 3350 and Resistance at 3410.

Below 3350 downside panic likely to continue towards 3310 and 3280 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3410.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3410 only.

Trade with levels only.

Soya bean (Aug)

Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref (Aug)

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 645 which will take it to 654 and 662 in near terms

Fresh selling can be seen below 642.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Support at 4800 and resistance is 5100.

Now what to expect?

Close above 5100 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 4800.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800. 

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3660

Close above 3660 will take it to 3780---3840 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.

Fresh selling can be initiated only below 3450 mark

Mentha oil (July)

Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 954. 

Close below 935 will see downside likely to continue towards 922 and 916 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 954.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 954 mark.

Trade with levels only.

CPO (July)

Support at 486 and resistance at 494

Close above 494 will take to 500---503 and then to 508+++mark else could touch its support level of 486 again

Fresh selling can be seen below 486 mark.

                      Trade with levels only.          

More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX jeera up over 1% on rise in overseas demand

                         

Jeera futures rose over 1% on the NCDEX today because of an increase in demand from overseas buyers. Prices also gained as the exchange halved the additional margin on both buy and sell positions on all running and yet-to-be-launched contracts of jeera to 5% from today. Today, arrivals were at 700-800 bags (1 bag = 55 kg), as against 4,000-5,000 bags normally, as most traders have kept away from the market following the implementation of goods and services tax on Jul 1.

Source: Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: NCDEX turmeric hits 2% upper cap on export demand

                         

Futures contracts of turmeric hit the 2% upper circuit on NCDEX today, and continued to rise, because of higher demand from overseas buyers. Acreage in Tamil Nadu, a major producer of turmeric, is likely to fall due to deficient rains in the state, which also supported prices. Tamil Nadu received 1.1 mm of rainfall on Tuesday, 46% below normal, according to IMD

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Monsoon Alert: IMD warns of heavy rainfall in Odisha till Sat

IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated places in Odisha till Saturday. Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive rainfall today, and Gangetic West Bengal may get showers today and Thursday. Rice, maize and pulses are the key kharif crops grown in these states.

Source : Newswire

More will update soon!!

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