Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert: IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at isolated places in Odisha till Saturday. Bihar and Jharkhand are likely to receive rainfall today, and Gangetic West Bengal may get showers today and Thursday. Rice, maize and pulses are the key kharif crops grown in these states.
Turmeric futures traded up on account of uptick in domestic as well export demand in the spot market. Besides, restricted supplies and slow pace of sowing in producing states also added support to turmeric prices’ uptrend. In Telangana (highest producing turmeric state), turmeric acreage as on 10-Jul-17, up 9.5% to 23,000 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 21,000 hectares. The normal acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per the trader source, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up 40.7% compared to last year same period.
Jeera traded higher as market participants initialize fresh buying on lower than expected stocks levels in the country. Arrival during the month of June marked lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,313 tonnes as on July 10 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.
Soybean August futures tumbled yesterday more than 2.00% due to fresh selling by the market participants on the back of profit booking activity. As per SOPA’s latest release, as of June-end soybean inventories with farmers were at 36 lakh tonnes, over three times the amount a year ago. As per the release, India's exports of soymeal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. Moreover, Government data marked, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares.
Cotton traded with lower bias, tracking weak international prices. In domestic market, there is fear a decline in yield due to deficient rainfall in major growing areas. Moreover, expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on cotton is less than manmade fibres also supported prices. As per IMD, the middle-, northern- and eastern parts of India received above-normal rainfall, the western and southern parts remained deficient last year, with reports of deficient rainfalls in large cotton-growing regions. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 71.8 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 5.8% compared to last year acreage of 68 lakh ha for same period.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3350 and Resistance at 3410.
Below 3350 downside panic likely to continue towards 3310 and 3280 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3410.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 3410 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3060.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3060---3130 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref (Aug)
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 645 which will take it to 654 and 662 in near terms
Fresh selling can be seen below 642.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4800 and resistance is 5100.
Now what to expect?
Close above 5100 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 4800.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4800.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3660
Close above 3660 will take it to 3780---3840 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 3450 mark
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 954.
Close below 935 will see downside likely to continue towards 922 and 916 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 954.
Fresh buying can be initiated above 954 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (July)
Support at 486 and resistance at 494
Close above 494 will take to 500---503 and then to 508+++mark else could touch its support level of 486 again
Fresh selling can be seen below 486 mark.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
