Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 12 July 2017

Nifty 9,789.05 /Sensex 31,747/ Bank Nifty 23,548

28 Advances / 23 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Benchmarks manage to end at all-time closing highs

Indian equity benchmarks, paring most of their early gains, managed to settle at new all-time closing highs with modest gains on Tuesday. Markets started the day on optimistic note and extended their northward journey to attain crucial 31,800 (Sensex) and 9,800 (Nifty) bastions, as investors expect inflation for the month of June to be at record low which could lead to a rate cut in the next monetary policy review. According to a private report, easing further from May’s 2.18%, Consumer price inflation (CPI) for June is predicted to cool to 1.70%, below the RBI’s medium-term target of 4% for the eighth successive month. The CPI is slated to be announced tomorrow. Traders also took some encouragement with India Meteorological Department’s (IMD’s) statement that the seasonal monsoon rains have covered most of India and the amount of precipitation so far is within expectations, raising hopes for higher farm output after increased sowing of rice and soybean crops.

Adding to the optimism, Revenue Secretary Hasmukh Adhia enlightened that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will help bring down the inflation by one to two per cent by the end of this year. The secretary said that the government’s objective is to ensure that inflation does not increase, and added that the government has tried to keep items frequently used by the consumers under the lower tax bracket. However, it was the last hour of trade which played spoil sports for the markets and traders opted to book most of their initial gains at higher levels. Meanwhile, IMF chief Christine Lagarde, warning against complacency in the current phase of global economic recovery has asked the members of G20 group, which includes India, to step up reforms by reducing trade barriers and subsidies to promote a level playing field.

Weak opening in European counters too dampened sentiments, as markets kept an eye out for appearances from central bank members on both sides of the Atlantic. However, Asian markets ended mostly in green on Tuesday, as investors awaited testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for clues on when the central bank would tighten US monetary policy.

Back home, kicking off the earnings season, IndusInd Bank remained flat even after it posted a 26.49% rise in its net profit at Rs 836.55 crore for the quarter ended June 30, 2017, as compared to Rs 661.38 crore for the same quarter in the previous year, helped by higher interest income. On the sectoral front, auto stocks remained in top gear despite SIAM’s report that domestic automobile sales saw a muted growth of one percent in June as the passenger vehicle (cars, utility vehicles and vans) segment declined more than 11 percent. A four percent growth in two-wheelers, however, helped the industry to remain in the green. Sugar stocks remained in sweet spot, as the government hiked the import duty on sugar from 40 percent to 50 percent, to check cheap imports. Cheaper imports have been adversely affecting domestic sugar mills.

FII’s Activity 11-July-17

The FIIs as per Tuesday’s data were net buyers in equity and debt segments both, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 2301.25 crore against gross selling of Rs 2139.30 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 161.95 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2059.26 crore with gross sales of Rs 955.86 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1103.40 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Above 9790 will see rally till 9830---9880 mark. 

Panic will see only close below 9660 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23400 and resistance at 23600

Close above 23600 will see further upside rally till 23800---24000.

Support and stop loss below 23400 on closing basis. 

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 12th July

• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 1.20 points versus a Premium of 5.90 points.

• Maximum Call writing was seen at 10000 strikes, Maximum put writing was seen at 9800 strikes.

• Maximum positions are at 9800 CE and 9600 PE. Nifty expected trading range is  10000--9800.

• AJANTPHARMA (50%), HINDPETRO (47%), NIITTECH (38%), AMARAJABAT (19%) and

LICHSGFIN (18%) were the top open interest gainers in the market.

• ASHOKLEY (-10%), CONCOR (-8%), BHARTIARTL (-7%), BHARATFIN (-6%) and HINDZINC (-6%) were

the top open interest losers in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.39 against 1.36 for monday's trade. 

• Around 6.15 lakh shares were shaded in open

interest with an increase in price. This indicates

that a long buildup was observed by market

participants in today’s trade.

• On the options front, an increase of 0.5% in the

volatility index was witnessed in today’s trade

Derivative Idea

Jindal Steel sheds around -0.4% of open interest as short unwinding.

On Daily charts, Jindal Steel has given a fresh breakout above 137 mark and trading above 21 and 55 DEMA which stood at 127 and 121 respectively  and too indicates upside momentum in it. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Jindal Steel (July) Future above 140.50. Stop Loss 135. Target 145---148++

Corporate Action Today

Srei Infrastructure Finance Limited- Dividend - Re 0.50 Per Share

Kotak Mahindra Bank Limited-Annual General Meeting/Dividend-Re 0.60 Per Share

Canara Bank-Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Re 1 Per Share

More Will Update Soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 11th July 17

Gold futures ended higher on Monday after nearing technical support and as traders awaited signals from central banks on interest rate hikes. Traders were looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, when US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address Congress.

Crude oil futures though recovered to end higher on Monday, but sentiment on oil remained negative as fears grew that rising output from the United States, Nigeria and Libya would continue to weigh on Opec and its allies’ efforts to rein in supply. Though, OPEC is expected to insist Libya and Nigeria take part in the cartel's supply quota plan. The two African nations have been exempt for the past six months, but production there has risen more than OPEC anticipated. Traders were also waiting for mid-week testimony from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen for clues about when the Fed will again raise interest rates.

Comex copper futures ended almost flat on Monday, while London copper prices fell as rising inventories indicated healthy supplies, outweighing worries about possible strikes at mines in Chile. Also pressuring the metals market was subdued inflation data in top market China as the economy loses momentum.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 27600 and Resistance at 27850

Break and sustain above 27850 will take it to 28000—28150 and then to 28350++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 27600.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 27600

Silver

Support at 36000 and Resistance at 36600

Break and sustain below 36000 will take it to 35600—35450 mark else could touch its resistance level of 36600.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 36600 mark.

Crude

Support at 2820 and Resistance at 2880

Break and sustain below 2820 will take it to 2760—2720 mark else it could touch its resistance level of 2880.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 2880 mark.

Natural Gas 

Support 184 and Resistance 190

Break and sustain above 190 will take it to 193—197++ mark else could touch its support level of 184

Fresh selling can be initiated below 184

Copper

Support at 377.00, Break and sustain below 377.00 will take it to 373—370 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 381 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 381 only.

Economic Data

07:30 P.M JOLTS Job Openings:  Previous 6.04M Forecast 5.98M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in JOLTS Job Openings – will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (11-July-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon Alert: Heavy rains are expected over several parts of central India this week. The weather body said heavy rainfall is "very likely" in west Madhya Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday, and in east Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are also expected in Chhattisgarh today and on Friday. Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are among the leading producers of paddy, oilseeds and pulses. Rains at this time will help the sown crops and increase pace of sowing in the states.

Soybean August futures continue to trade higher as market participants initiated fresh buying due to deficient rains in soybean growing areas of MP , Rajasthan and Maharashtra during last 7 days or so. Moreover, higher soymeal exports too support prices. According to SOPA release, India's exports of soymeal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares. However, in CBOT soybean futures also rallied on hotter and drier forecasts for important growing areas of the U.S. Midwest. Moreover, lower than expected acreage and lower rating of the US crop. US weekly exports were the lowest since the first week of the 16-17 MY, at 278,669 MT, but were 43.2% above last year.

Cotton traded lower after trading in green a day earlier, tracking weak international prices. In domestic market, there is fear a decline in yield due to deficient rainfall in major growing areas. Moreover, expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on cotton is less than manmade fibres also supported prices. As per IMD, the middle-, northern- and eastern parts of India received above-normal rainfall, the western and southern parts remained deficient last year, with reports of deficient rainfalls in large cotton-growing regions. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 71.8 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 5.8% compared to last year acreage of 68 lakh ha for same period.

Jeera traded higher as market participants initialize fresh buying on lower than expected stocks levels in the country. The jeera arrival in June is lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,310 tonnes as on July 7 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.

Technical Aspect

Guar seed (Oct)

Support at 3280 and Resistance at 3460.

Trading in a range and either side break and sustain will set the further trend.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3350 only.

Trade with levels only.

Soya bean (Aug)

Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3130.

Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3130---3180 mark

Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.

Soyaref (Aug)

Support at 638 and resistance is 645.

Looks positive and close above 645 will take it to 655 and 664 in near terms

Fresh selling can be seen below 638.

Dhaniya (Aug)

Support at 4980 and resistance is 5200.

Now what to expect?

Close above 5200 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 4980.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 4980. 

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed (Aug)

Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3700.

 Close above 3700 will take it to 3780---3840 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3540.

Mentha oil (July)

Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 955. 

Close above 955 could see more upside till 968 and 980 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 935.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.

Trade with levels only.

CPO (July)

Our buy call of CPO from 488 to 493 proven great and made a high of 492.80 yesterday.

Above 488... Rally likely to continue till 497---503 and then to 508 mark else could touch its support level of 481.

Fresh selling can be seen below 481.

Trade with levels only.

More will update soon!!

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Commodity Alert: MCX warehouse mentha oil stock up at 1,196 tn Mon

Stocks of mentha oil surged to 1,195.73 tn at MCX warehouses on Monday, up 130.68 tn from Saturday, according to data from the exchange. Market participants are depositing oil derived from the new mentha crop at exchange-accredited warehouses. Mentha harvest is almost complete in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Haryana.

Source: Newswire

More will update soon!!

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Global Update: Most units in the trading arena steady before Fed Yellen testimony

                         

Most Asian currencies and commodities were steady during the session today because investors avoided building significant positions ahead of key economic data points and events in the US this week. The semi-annual monetary policy report by US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen to the Congress on Wednesday and Thursday is expected to provide further cues on the possibility of interest rate hikes in the US.

Moreover, US inflation print and retail sales data for June, both due on Friday, are being keenly awaited for gauging the world's largest economy's ability to withstand gradual rate hikes.

                                                                             Source: Newswire 

                  More will update soon!!                       

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Monsoon Alert: IMD says heavy rains likely in central India this week

                        

Heavy rains are expected over several parts of central India this week, IMD said. The weather body said heavy rainfall is "very likely" in west Madhya Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday, and in east Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are also expected in Chhattisgarh today and on Friday. Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are among the leading producers of paddy, oilseeds and pulses. Rains at this time will help the sown crops and increase pace of sowing in the states.

Source : Newwire

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 11th July 2017

Rupee rises for the third straight session on Monday

Rising for the third straight day, Indian rupee ended marginally higher against dollar on Monday, due to sustained selling of the US currency by exporters and banks. Sentiments remained positive with the report that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows during the period between January-June 2017 (H12017) stood at nearly $23 billion into the Indian capital markets, largely driven by several factors, including expectations from the government that it would speed up development and economic reforms. Moreover, the domestic indices zoomed to record highs cleared the way for the rupee's up-move, but the dollar made headway overseas after US jobs data, restricted the further move. On the global front, dollar traded at a two-month high against yen on Monday, helping to lift a broader dollar index, as the gap between US rates and Japanese rates favoured the US currency for now.

USDINR

Support at 64.55 and Resistance at 64.80

Looks weak can could touch its support level of 64.55…Break and sustain below 64.55 will take it to 64.35—64.10 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 64.80 mark.

GBPINR

Support at 83.50 and Resistance at 83.70

Below 83.50 panic remain continue till 83.30—83.10 mark and then to 82.80 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 83.70 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 83.70 mark.

EURINR

Support at 73.50 and Resistance at 74.00

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 73.50

Below 73.50 will take it to 73.30—73.10 and then to 73.10 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 74.00 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 74.00 only.

JPYINR

Support at 56.50 and Resistance at 56.90

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 56.50. Further downside panic will see below 56.50 else could touch its resistance level of 56.90.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 56.90

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels ,Bank Nifty levels and Derivative Outlook of the day 11th July 2017

                       

Nifty 9,763 /Sensex 31,715/ Bank Nifty 23,675

45 Advances / 6 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Markets close at record highs amidst technical glitch at NSE

Monday turned out to be a fabulous day of trade for Indian equity markets, with bulls tightening their grip with frontline indices ending at all-time closing highs. Sensex surpassed its crucial 31,700 level, while Nifty50 achieved 9,750 mark for the first time ever despite trading remained shut on NSE in cash and F&O segment for 3 hours in the morning trade due to a technical glitch. Markets traded jubilantly throughout the session on report that Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India (Assocham) said that the Goods and Services Tax (GST) will boost the competitiveness of micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Traders also took some encouragement after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, noting that the GST, which was implemented last week, was the biggest tax reform in the last 70 years has said it would help businesses and create a unified market of 1.3 billion people. Modi also underlined support for free and open trade regime of World Trade Organization (WTO).

Adding to the optimism, Union minister Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi said that the new tax regime would prove to be a game changer for the country’s economy, terming the GST a revolutionary reform taken in the interest of common people and small traders. The introduction of the new tax system by the Narendra Modi Government was the biggest economic reform since the Independence. Some support also came with reports that Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) inflows during the period between January-June 2017 (H12017) stood at nearly $23 billion into the Indian capital markets, largely driven by several factors, including expectations from the government that it would speed up development and economic reforms.

Firm opening in European counters too aided sentiments with CAC, DAX and FTSE trading with a gain of around half a percent, as world leaders met over the weekend in Hamburg at the 12th G-20 talks wherein global issues such as trade, climate change and defence were discussed. Asian markets ended mixed, as crude oil prices rebounded after settling nearly 3 percent lower on Friday.

Back home, appreciation in Indian rupee too supported sentiments with rupee was trading strong at 64.53 against the dollar on fresh selling of the US currency by banks and exporters. Moreover, quarterly corporate earnings optimism gave domestic institutional and retail investors much hope to go in for fresh bets. On the sectoral front, Auto stocks travelled northward during the trade despite domestic passenger vehicle sales declined by 11.21 per cent to 198,399 units in June from 223,454 units in the same month last year. Stocks related to aviation sector flied higher, as the Finance Ministry exempted aircraft imported on lease from the 5 percent GST levy. Under the recently introduced GST regime, aircraft imported on lease basis attracted integrated GST (iGST) of 5 percent.

FII’s Activity 10-July-17

The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3717.12 crore against gross selling of Rs 4136.98 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 419.86 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1603.15 crore with gross sales of Rs 1130.23 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 472.92 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Nifty future skyrocketed. We are holding long from 9600 and above 9720 mark

Now what to expect???

Above 9780 will see rally till 9830---9880+++mark. 

We will maintain revise stop loss of 9660. 

Bank Nifty Levels

Too flared like anything. Not able to breach 23000 and skyrocketed. We clearly mentioned that above 23500 rally remain continue till 23800---24000. 

Hold long with revise stop loss of 23400

Trade with levels only

Daily Derivative Outlook 11th July

• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Premium of 5.90 points versus a Premium of 1.20 points.

• Call writing was seen at 9800 strikes, put writing was seen at 9600 strike.

• Maximum positions are at 9800 CE and 9600 PE. Nifty is expected range shifted to 9800-9600 from 9500-9700.

• AJANTPHARMA (10%), JETAIRWAYS (8%), 

TATAGLOBAL (8%), IDFC (7%) and MRPL (6%) were 

the top open interest gainers in the market.

• BERGERPAINT (-15%), UNIONBANK (-12%), PNB 

(-11%), COALINDIA (-8%) and DISHTV (-7%) were the 

top open interest losers in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.36 against 1.27 for Friday trade. 

• On the options front, volatility index increased in 

Monday's trade by around 0.50%.

Derivative Idea

Jet Airways added around 8% of open interest as Long positions.

On Daily charts, Jet Airways is trading above 21 and 55 DEMA which stood at 560 and 528 respectively  and too indicates upside momentum in it. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Jet Airways (July) Future above 611. Stop Loss 590. Target 630---640+++

Corporate Action Today

Ashok Leyland Limited- ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING/DIVIDEND - RS 1.56/- PER SHARE

Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited-BONUS 1:2/ DIVIDEND - RS 1.10 PER SHARE

Results Today

Indusind Bank Limited

The South Indian Bank Limited

                    More Will Update Soon!!                        

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