Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert: Heavy rains are expected over several parts of central India this week. The weather body said heavy rainfall is "very likely" in west Madhya Pradesh from Thursday to Saturday, and in east Madhya Pradesh on Thursday and Friday. Heavy showers are also expected in Chhattisgarh today and on Friday. Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are among the leading producers of paddy, oilseeds and pulses. Rains at this time will help the sown crops and increase pace of sowing in the states.
Soybean August futures continue to trade higher as market participants initiated fresh buying due to deficient rains in soybean growing areas of MP , Rajasthan and Maharashtra during last 7 days or so. Moreover, higher soymeal exports too support prices. According to SOPA release, India's exports of soymeal rose 56.1% on year to 64,000 tonnes in June. As per government data, area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares. However, in CBOT soybean futures also rallied on hotter and drier forecasts for important growing areas of the U.S. Midwest. Moreover, lower than expected acreage and lower rating of the US crop. US weekly exports were the lowest since the first week of the 16-17 MY, at 278,669 MT, but were 43.2% above last year.
Cotton traded lower after trading in green a day earlier, tracking weak international prices. In domestic market, there is fear a decline in yield due to deficient rainfall in major growing areas. Moreover, expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on cotton is less than manmade fibres also supported prices. As per IMD, the middle-, northern- and eastern parts of India received above-normal rainfall, the western and southern parts remained deficient last year, with reports of deficient rainfalls in large cotton-growing regions. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in 71.8 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 5.8% compared to last year acreage of 68 lakh ha for same period.
Jeera traded higher as market participants initialize fresh buying on lower than expected stocks levels in the country. The jeera arrival in June is lower this year compared to May as well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes, were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,310 tonnes as on July 7 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes.
Technical Aspect
Guar seed (Oct)
Support at 3280 and Resistance at 3460.
Trading in a range and either side break and sustain will set the further trend.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3350 only.
Trade with levels only.
Soya bean (Aug)
Support seen at 2900 and Resistance is at 3130.
Looks positive and will add more lot on decline around 2980 for the upside level of 3130---3180 mark
Fresh selling could be initiated below 2900.
Soyaref (Aug)
Support at 638 and resistance is 645.
Looks positive and close above 645 will take it to 655 and 664 in near terms
Fresh selling can be seen below 638.
Dhaniya (Aug)
Support at 4980 and resistance is 5200.
Now what to expect?
Close above 5200 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 4980.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 4980.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed (Aug)
Support seen at 3540 and resistance seen at 3700.
Close above 3700 will take it to 3780---3840 and then 4000+++ mark in days to come.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3540.
Mentha oil (July)
Support seen at 935 and resistance is at 955.
Close above 955 could see more upside till 968 and 980 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 935.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 935 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO (July)
Our buy call of CPO from 488 to 493 proven great and made a high of 492.80 yesterday.
Above 488... Rally likely to continue till 497---503 and then to 508 mark else could touch its support level of 481.
Fresh selling can be seen below 481.
Trade with levels only.
More will update soon!!
