Technical Pick - TVS Motors

TVS Motor is finding support at 545 and resistance at 560.

MACD showing positive momentum which indicates that upside side seems certain in it.

Daily 14 period RSI has turned up from near 70 levels.As per the bullish high low theory of 40-70 levels, the weekly RSI is expected to move up to 73-75 levels from the current reading of 70. This could mean continuation of upside momentum in the stock price ahead.

Break and sustain above 560 will see nonstop rally in TVS Motor till 578++ in weeks to come

We believe the stock has the potential to move higher in the coming weeks as bullish trend will be seen above 578 level. 

Trading Recommendation - Buy TVS Motor above 560 for the initial upside target of 578 with stop loss below 545 on closing basis.

More will update on time to time.

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Government may infuse more money in public sector banks

The government might inject more money in public sector banks given the non-performing asset issues, and increasing capital needs under Basel III guidelines. The exact sum will be decided after the first quarter results of banks, the report said, quoting a senior finance ministry official. “We will be taking into account the financial position of PSBs (public sector banks) after their first quarter results are available and then accordingly ask for more capital through a second supplementary," the report said quoting an official. A capital infusion worth 480 bln rupees will be required by banks in the current financial year (Apr-Mar), about five times the 100 bln rupees allocated by the government, according to a Reserve Bank of India estimate.

 The sum allocated by the government for the current fiscal can be given only to 10-12 state-run banks, including IDBI Bank, the report said quoting the official. The RBI has presented two estimates for the capital requirement of public sector banks, the report said, quoting another finance ministry official aware of the deliberations. In one of its communications to the government, the central bank also presented a lower estimate of about 300 bln rupees.

                                                 Source : Newswire

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Diplomatic shift: Israel, India look past defence to widen commercial ties

In the months leading up to Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historic visit to Israel, India signed two arms deals, spending $2.6 billion on Israeli missile defence systems.

Yet since Modi arrived on Tuesday, military ties -- for decades the secretive bedrock of India-Israel relations -- have taken a back seat. The governments have instead spent time discussing companies that sell medical devices, hi-tech and water systems.

Rather than making the visit, the first by a sitting Indian prime minister, all about the value of deals signed, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Modi appear intent on playing up shared culture and values, in the hope this will give commercial ties deeper roots.

The timing reflects a diplomatic shift towards Israel being more accepted in the region. Modi, who is acutely conscious of the need to adopt innovation and new technology to update India's infrastructure has always had a personal affinity for Israel and came to learn more about the country before he became premier.

( http://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/diplomatic-shift-israel-india-look-past-defence-to-widen-commercial-ties-117070600214_1.html )

        Source: Business Standard

www.indianmarketview.com

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Daily Derivative Outlook 7th July

• Nifty (Jul) futures closed at a Discount of 1.20 

points versus Premium of 10.75 points.

• Call writing was seen at 9700 strikes, put writing was seen at 9500 strike.

• Maximum positions are at 9700 CE and 9500 PE. Nifty is expected to trade in the range of 9500-9700.

• MANAPPURAM (85%), PAGEIND (22%), HDIL (22%), 

TATACHEM (19%) and SREINFRA (16%) were the 

top open interest gainers in the market.

• IBREALEST (-10%), UJJIVAN (-8%), ARVIND (-8%), 

BALKRISIND (-6%) and HEXAWARE (-6%) were the 

top open interest losers in the market.

• The Nifty Put Call Ratio (PCR) finally stood at 1.31 for July month contract.

• Around 0.99 lakh shares were added in open 

interest with increase in price indicating long 

buildup was observed by market participants in 

today’s trade.

• On the options front volatility index has decreased 

in today’s trade by around 1.52%.

Derivative Idea

Mannapuram Finance added around 85% of open interest as Long positions and 1002% rise in volumes. 

On Daily charts, Mannapuram Finance is trading above 21 and 55 DEMA which indicates upside momentum in it. 

Current chart pattern and derivatives data suggest that we expect further rally in coming sessions.

Trading Recommendation

Buy Manappuram Finance (July) Future above 104 Stop Loss 100 Target 108--110

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels and Bank Nifty levels of the day 7th July 2017

Nifty 9,674 /Sensex 31,369/ Bank Nifty 23,466

28 Advances / 23 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian equities gain for second straight session; Nifty ends above 9650 mark

Indian stock markets witnessed a fairly stable day of trade on Thursday, as sanguinity got reinforced after minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed a lack of consensus on the future pace of interest rate increases. Wednesday’s optimism got spilled over into the Thursday’s session helping the frontline indices in extending the winning momentum for second successive session, as sentiments got a boost after International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) report that India’s growth outlook has improved as the impact of last year’s demonetization exercise seems to be fading and recent key structural reforms continue to pay off. Besides, hopes of positive quarterly earnings and smooth roll-out of the goods and services tax (GST) also lifted sentiment.

Some support also came with a private report indicated that Indian economy is expected to recover in the coming quarters and the country is expected to clock a real GDP growth of 6.9 percent in this financial year. The report also noted that the negative effects from the demonetization measure is already wearing off, and the Indian economy will likely benefit from positive demographic trends, greater external stability (due to improved terms of trade from low oil prices), and continued reforms that should help to improve the country’s admittedly poor business environment. Investors’ morale remained upbeat as Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that despite the anticipation of initial disruptions on account of the GST, the rollout of the new indirect tax regime from July 1 was smooth and without any significant glitches. Meanwhile, PSU Banking stocks gained traction after brokerage houses upgraded leading PSUs such as Bank of Baroda and Punjab National Bank as valuations turned reasonable after recent correction on NPA concerns.

On the global front, Asian equity markets ended mostly lower on Thursday, as oil prices resumed a downtrend and minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting showed a lack of consensus among members over when to start reducing the Fed’s securities portfolio. Japanese stocks edged lower as ongoing tensions around North Korea continued to sap risk appetite, while the retail sector underperformed on dismal earnings from convenience stores. Investors are focused on major events this week such as US jobs data and the Group of 20 nations’ meeting in Germany, where US President Donald Trump and other leaders are expected to discuss steps to rein in North Korea’s weapons programme. The United States said it was ready to use force if needed to stop North Korea’s nuclear missile programme but said it preferred global diplomatic action against Pyongyang. Meanwhile, China stocks inched up, helped by strong gains in resource firms on expectations of robust mid-year earnings.

Back home, the market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1537 shares on the gaining side against 1171 shares on the losing side, while 135 shares remained unchanged.

FII’s Activity 6-July-17

The FIIs as per Thursday’s data were net buyers in equity segment, while they were net sellers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 3521.81 crore against gross selling of Rs 3396.90 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 124.91 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 541.52 crore with gross sales of Rs 1199.50 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 657.98 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Above 9680 will see rally till 9720---9770 mark. 

Panic will see only close below 9580 level only

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23225 and resistance at 23480

Close above 23480 will see further upside rally till 23800---24000.

Support and stop loss below 23225 on closing basis. 

Trade with levels only

Corporate Action Ex-Date Today

ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 2.30/- Per Share/Special 

More Will Update Soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (06-July-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Monsoon Alert: IMD has warned of heavy rains in parts of east Madhya Pradesh today. Heavy rainfall is "very likely" at isolated places over northern parts of east Madhya Pradesh subdivision, the weather bureau said. The subdivision has received 181.2 mm rainfall so far during the ongoing southwest monsoon season, 1% below normal. The region is a major grower of oilseeds, wheat, pulses and maize. Rainfall at this time will benefit kharif sowing of the crops.

Sugar prices continued to trade higher in the key wholesale markets of north India today due to rising demand from the stockists and bulk buyers. However, in the last month demand had remained largely subdued for the whole as traders refrained from making fresh purchases ahead of the implementation of the goods and services tax. “The pipelines are still more or less dry...demand is high but despatches from mills are slow. Supplies to north India are likely to be affected for a week starting Jul 12 when processions to Haridwar would block traffic on some routes connecting western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. As a result, sugar prices are seen rising in the near term. The outlook on prices in the long term would depend on whether the government raises the import duty on sugar as food ministry has sent a letter to the revenue secretary in this regard. Currently, raw sugar and white sugar attract a customs duty of 40%.Last month, the country's sugar mills had urged the government to raise import duty on sugar to 60% as low global prices had made imports viable even at the existing 40% duty. The goods and services tax is expected to have a "neutral" impact on the sugar sector, barring in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, ratings agency ICRA had said in a report earlier this month. In these two states, the previous effective tax rate, including excise duty, cess, and additional 5% value-added tax, was at 10%. The new tax rate of 5% would have a positive impact, making the sweetener cheaper.

Soybean futures traded with higher note on expectation of good physical buying due to rally in edible oils. Moreover, lower pace in physical arrivals and lower sowing data compared to last year also support prices. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during last week were down 37% to 39,588 tonnes as compared to 62,976 tonnes in the previous week. Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 15.58 lakh hectares till last week, down about 19% on year. Last year, the acreage was 18.92 lakh hectares.

Technical Aspect: (July Contract)

Guarseed

Our buy call of Guar seed from 3200 to 3270 proven great.

Now what to expect?

Support seen at 3190 and resistance intact 3320.

Rally likely to continue towards 3320 and weekly close above 3320 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 3190 again.

Fresh selling can be seen below 3190.

Trade with levels only.

Soyaref 

Support at 641 and resistance is 645.

Looks positive and weekly close above 645 will take it to 652 and 657 in near term else could touch its support level of 641.

Fresh selling can be seen below 641.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

Our buy call of Dhaniya from 4835 to 4931 proven great.

Now what to expect?

Weekly close above 4970 will see further upside rally towards 5080 and then 5250 mark else could touch its support level.

Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 4710. 

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

We are holding long from 3550 and made a high of 3617 today…

What to expect??

Support seen at 3450 and resistance is at 3650.

Looks positive and every dip towards 3550 will accumulate buying which will take it to 3650 mark.

Further upside rally will see only close above 3650 mark

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil 

Our buy call in Mentha oil from 902 to 927.80 proven great….

Now what to expect?

Support seen at 912 and resistance is at 930. 

Weekly close above 930 could see more upside till 945 and 958 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 912.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 912 mark.

Trade with levels only.

CPO 

Above 486... Rally likely to continue till 491---498 and then to 503 mark

Fresh selling can be seen below 478.50.

Trade with levels only. Anything seems reversal we will update.

More will update soon!!

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Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 06th July 17

Gold futures ended higher on Wednesday, benefiting from a tick lower in both US bond yields and the dollar, as investors remained cautious ahead of the release of Federal Reserve's minutes from its June meeting.

Crude oil futures slumped on Wednesday, ending their longest bull-run in more than five years, as the floor trading resumed after a holiday. The slump came amid signs that OPEC's supply quota plan may be falling apart. A report showed that oil exports by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries climbed for a second month in June. OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, up 450,000 bpd from May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier.

Comex copper futures ended lower on Wednesday, while London copper prices too fell on a surge in warehouse stocks. China's services sector grew at a slower pace in June as new orders slumped, signaling renewed pressure on businesses and pointing to a softening outlook for the economy. A decline in copper prices was offset by news that Chilean miner Antofagasta was facing potential strikes from workers and supervisors at two of its mines as contract talks continue.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 28050 and Resistance 28225

Break and sustain below 28050 will take it to 27900—27750 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 28225 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 28225 mark.

Trade with levels only.

Silver

Support at 37200 and Resistance at 37900

Looks weak and could touch its resistance level of 37200, Break and sustain below 37200 will take it to 36900—36600 mark else could touch its resistance level 37900 again

Fresh buying can be initiated above 37900 only.

Crude

Support at 2930 and Resistance at 3000

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 2930 mark, Break and sustain below 2930 will take it to 2900—2880 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3000 only

Natural Gas (July)

Support 184 and Resistance 190

Looks weak and could touch its support level of 184 mark, Close below 184 will take it to 180—178 else could touch its resistance level of 190.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 190

Copper 

Support at 381, Break and sustain below 381 will take it to 377—373 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 385 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 385 only.

Economic Data

05:45 P.M ADP Non-Farm Employment Change:  Previous 253K Forecast 184K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in ADP Non-Farm Employment Change – will have negative impact on bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 244K Forecast 243K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

07:30 P.M – ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI– Previous 56.9 Forecast 56.5 Actual –?? 

Impact – Increase in ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous 0.1M, Forecast -2.4M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 6th July 2017

Rupee ends weaker on dollar strength overseas

Indian rupee ended weaker against the US dollar on Wednesday, due to increased demand of the greenback from the importers and the banks. Investors failed to get solace with the report that India’s services PMI rose to an eight month high in June at 53.1 as against 52.2 in May of 2017. This was also the fifth consecutive month of expansion as business environment for services sector in the country continued to improve. Moreover, the domestic currency was also weighed down by dollar’s strengthen against some other currencies overseas. However, positive gains in equity market arrested further losses. On the global front, US dollar inched higher against yen on Wednesday but struggled to make progress against euro as investors awaited minutes from the Federal Reserve's latest meeting and US jobs data later in the week.

USDINR July

Support at 64.75 and Resistance at 65.10

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

GBPINR

Support at 83.80 and Resistance at 84.30

Break and sustain below 83.80 will take it to 83.50—83.30 and then to 83.10 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 84.30

EURINR

Support at 73.50 and Resistance at 74.00

Below 73.50 will take it to 73.30—73.10 and then to 73.10 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 74.00 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 74.00 only.

JPYINR

Support at 57.25 and Resistance at 57.80

Looks weak and could touch it support level of 57.25 mark. Further downside panic will see below 57.25, else could touch its resistance level of 57.80 mark.

Fresh buying only above 57.80

More will update soon!!

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