Fundamental Aspect
Monsoon Alert: IMD has warned of heavy rains in parts of east Madhya Pradesh today. Heavy rainfall is "very likely" at isolated places over northern parts of east Madhya Pradesh subdivision, the weather bureau said. The subdivision has received 181.2 mm rainfall so far during the ongoing southwest monsoon season, 1% below normal. The region is a major grower of oilseeds, wheat, pulses and maize. Rainfall at this time will benefit kharif sowing of the crops.
Sugar prices continued to trade higher in the key wholesale markets of north India today due to rising demand from the stockists and bulk buyers. However, in the last month demand had remained largely subdued for the whole as traders refrained from making fresh purchases ahead of the implementation of the goods and services tax. “The pipelines are still more or less dry...demand is high but despatches from mills are slow. Supplies to north India are likely to be affected for a week starting Jul 12 when processions to Haridwar would block traffic on some routes connecting western Uttar Pradesh and Delhi. As a result, sugar prices are seen rising in the near term. The outlook on prices in the long term would depend on whether the government raises the import duty on sugar as food ministry has sent a letter to the revenue secretary in this regard. Currently, raw sugar and white sugar attract a customs duty of 40%.Last month, the country's sugar mills had urged the government to raise import duty on sugar to 60% as low global prices had made imports viable even at the existing 40% duty. The goods and services tax is expected to have a "neutral" impact on the sugar sector, barring in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, ratings agency ICRA had said in a report earlier this month. In these two states, the previous effective tax rate, including excise duty, cess, and additional 5% value-added tax, was at 10%. The new tax rate of 5% would have a positive impact, making the sweetener cheaper.
Soybean futures traded with higher note on expectation of good physical buying due to rally in edible oils. Moreover, lower pace in physical arrivals and lower sowing data compared to last year also support prices. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during last week were down 37% to 39,588 tonnes as compared to 62,976 tonnes in the previous week. Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 15.58 lakh hectares till last week, down about 19% on year. Last year, the acreage was 18.92 lakh hectares.
Technical Aspect: (July Contract)
Guarseed
Our buy call of Guar seed from 3200 to 3270 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 3190 and resistance intact 3320.
Rally likely to continue towards 3320 and weekly close above 3320 will fuel more power in it else could touch its support level of 3190 again.
Fresh selling can be seen below 3190.
Trade with levels only.
Soyaref
Support at 641 and resistance is 645.
Looks positive and weekly close above 645 will take it to 652 and 657 in near term else could touch its support level of 641.
Fresh selling can be seen below 641.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Our buy call of Dhaniya from 4835 to 4931 proven great.
Now what to expect?
Weekly close above 4970 will see further upside rally towards 5080 and then 5250 mark else could touch its support level.
Fresh selling can be initiated only close below 4710.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
We are holding long from 3550 and made a high of 3617 today…
What to expect??
Support seen at 3450 and resistance is at 3650.
Looks positive and every dip towards 3550 will accumulate buying which will take it to 3650 mark.
Further upside rally will see only close above 3650 mark
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil
Our buy call in Mentha oil from 902 to 927.80 proven great….
Now what to expect?
Support seen at 912 and resistance is at 930.
Weekly close above 930 could see more upside till 945 and 958 mark in near term else could touch its support level of 912.
Fresh selling can be initiated below 912 mark.
Trade with levels only.
CPO
Above 486... Rally likely to continue till 491---498 and then to 503 mark
Fresh selling can be seen below 478.50.
Trade with levels only. Anything seems reversal we will update.
More will update soon!!
