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Thursday, June 22, 2017

RBI rate panel dissenter wanted 50 bp cut, rest watching inflation - minutes





The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee wants more evidence that inflation has sustainably fallen below its target before deciding whether to lower interest rates, minutes from its last meeting showed on Wednesday.

The RBI voted 5-1 to keep the repo rate at 6.25 percent earlier this month, but issued a slightly less hawkish statement after consumer inflation eased to 2.99 percent in April, below its 4 percent target.

The vote marked the first non-unanimous decision in the five meetings since the MPC was formed last September.

However, the rest of the panel, including Governor Urjit Patel, wanted more evidence that inflation would ease, while expressing concern that prices would accelerate later this year.

That would place it at the lower end of the RBI's projection of 2 to 3.5 percent in April to September. India will post one more inflation data next month before the next policy meeting on Aug. 1-2.

(http://in.reuters.com/article/india-cenbank-minutes-idINKBN19C1MP)














More will update soon!!

Update on Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 22nd June 2017






Nifty 9,633 /Sensex 31,283 / Bank Nifty 23,708

17 Advances / 34 Declines/ 0 Unchanged


 Indian benchmarks settle with moderate losses Indian benchmarks settle with moderate losses
Indian equity benchmarks carried forward their southward journey for yet another session on Wednesday, as market participants waited for minutes of a June policy meet by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to gauge the direction of interest rates in the months ahead. Today's session largely remained characterized by choppiness as the aimless indices moved only sideways in a tight band lacking triggers for most part of the day. Sentiments remained downbeat with the inclusion of Chinese mainland stocks to the MSCI index, which could lead to hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of share purchases, shrinking shares of other emerging markets, including India.
Some concerns also came with CARE Ratings' latest report that the fiscal deficit estimate for 2017-18 is set to rise to 3.35% from present 3.24% of GDP, impacted by Rs 17,780 crore shortfall in non-tax revenue (NTR) target from telecom services. Besides, muted trend in other Asian markets following a renewed slump in oil prices to seven-month lows also weighed the sentiment. However, losses remained capped with the report that India's farm sector is poised for a boom as monsoon's biggest threat, the El Nino phenomenon, has been completely ruled out and heavy showers in the key agricultural regions of Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh have created the right conditions for crop planting. The widely respected Australian weather office had formally withdrawn its El Nino alert and said that outlook for the phenomenon was inactive. Meanwhile, India has witnessed a whopping 30% rise in the foreign exchange earnings from the tourism sector in the month of May, as compared to the same period in the last two years and a 19% increase in tourist footfalls. According to the Reserve Bank of India's credit data of Travel Head from Balance of Payments, foreign exchange earnings (FEEs) during the month of May 2017 were Rs 12,403 crore as compared to Rs 10,260 crore in May 2016 and Rs 9,505 crore in May 2015.
On the global front, Asian markets ended mostly lower on Wednesday, tracking losses on Wall Street overnight, after crude oil futures tumbled into negative territory. Investors reaction was muted to news that US index provider MSCI has decided to add Chinese A-shares into its benchmark Emerging Markets Index. MSCI will add 222 China A shares in the index starting in June 2018. Geopolitical tensions also took center stage after US President Donald Trump tweeted that efforts by China to rein in North Korea have not worked. Trump's warning came exactly a day before US and Chinese officials are to meet in Washington to talk about North Korea. Japanese shares lost ground as a stronger yen as well as falling oil prices sapped investors' appetite for risk. Further, Japan's Nikkei share average declined after a slightly stronger yen sapped risk appetite, while mining stocks underperformed on the back of weaker oil prices.
Back home, shares of aviation companies continued their northward journey for second consecutive day, with all the three airliners Spice Jet, InterGlobe Aviation and Jet Airways ending higher in the range of 1% to 3% on the BSE after good growth in passenger traffic and lower crude oil prices. However, Oil explorers such as Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) declined after global oil prices hit seven-month lows. The market breadth remained pessimistic, as there were 1266 shares on the gaining side against 1366 shares on the losing side, while 185 shares remained unchanged.


FII’s Activity 21-June-17


The FIIs as per Monday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.
In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 7994.39 crore against gross selling of Rs 8688.50 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 694.11 crore in equities.
In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 2384.50 crore with gross sales of Rs 1351.01 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 1033.49 crore in debt.


Now what to expect??






Nifty Levels





Support at 9580 and resistance at 9670
Above 9670 will see rally till 9730---9775 mark else it could test its support level of 9580 again.
Panic will see only close below 9580 level only


Today's Top Pick


Chambal Fertilisers


Support at 118 and Resistance at 123

Above 123 will see upside rally till 127++mark in days to come.

Looks weak only if close below 118


AGM/Dividend/Bonus Today


Hindustan Unilever Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 10/- Per Share
Allahabad Bank- Annual General Meeting
Upl Limited- Annual General Meeting/Dividend-Rs 7 per Share
Bank Of Baroda- Annual General Meeting/Dividend - Rs 1.20 Per Share
Equitas Holdings Limited- Annual General Meeting
Idea Cellular Limited- Annual General Meeting
Godrej Consumer Products Limited- Bonus 1:1

















More will update soon!!

Wednesday, June 21, 2017

कमोडिटी बाजार : एग्री कमोडिटी : कमोडिटी बाजार की बदलेगी तस्वीर, इंस्टीट्यूशनल निवेश को सेबी की मंजूरी, बढ़ेगा निवेश





बुधवार को सेबी ने कमोडिटी बाजार की तस्वीर और तकदीर बदलने के लिए नींव का पत्थर रख दिया है और इसी दिशा में बढ़ते हुए सेबी ने कमोडिटी बाजार में संस्थागत निवेश को मंजूरी दे दी है। सेबी ने हवाला दिया है कि सीडीएसी यानि कमोडिटी डेरीवेटीव एडवाइजरी कमेटी के दिए सुझावों और इससे पहले कारोबारियों, एक्सचेंजिज और ब्रोकर्स के आए सुझावों के मद्दे नजर ये फैसला लिया गया है। अब कमोडिटी बाजार में कटैगरी-प्प्प् यानि आॅल्टर्नेटीव इवेस्टमेंट फंड भी निवेश कर सकेंगे।

आॅल्टर्नेटीव इंवेस्टमेंट फंड किसी भी कमोडिटी डेरीवेटीव में पैसा लगा सकते हैं। सेबी ने ये भी साफ किया कि कोई भी आॅल्टर्नेटीव फंड किसी एक कमोडिटी में तय कुल फंड के 10 फिसदी से ज्यादा का निवेश नहीं कर सकता। इसके साथ ही फंड हाऊस अपने निवेश को डिस्कलाॅज करेगा। 

जानकारों की मानें तो सेबी की तरफ से किया गया ये फैसला कमोडिटी बाजार के लिए मिल का पत्थर साबित होगा। इससे कमोडिटी बाजार में तेजी से बदलाव होने की आशंका है। कमोडिटी एक्सचेंजिज़ को इससे मजबूती मिलेगी और कमोडिटी डेरिवेटीव मार्केट में नकदी की समस्या खत्म होगी। बाजार में लिक्विडिटी बढ़ेगी।

क्या है AIF ?

दरअसल, आॅल्टर्नेट इंवेस्टमेंट फंड यानि AIF एक तरह का पूल निवेश है जैसे मुचुअल फंड में होता है ठीक उसी प्रकार संस्थान निवेशकों के पैसे का प्रयोग करता है इसे आप किटी पूल की तरह भी समझ सकते हैं। 



Source: MarketTimesTv











More will update soon!!

Update on Base Metals 21 June 2017




Nickel 








Support at 558 and resistance 587

Weekly close above 587 will see more upside till 604---625 mark else could test its support level of 558.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 558.

Trade with levels only.


Lead 







Support at 135.5 and Resistance at 137.50

Close above 138 will take to 141---143 mark else it could test it’s support level of 135.50 again

Fresh selling can be initiated below 135.50.

Trade with levels only.



Zinc





Support at 164.50 and resistance is 168.00

Two consecutive closes + weekly close above 168  will take to 172---173.50 and then to 176+++ mark else it could test it’s support level of 164.50 again.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 164.50 mark


Aluminium





Support at 120 and resistance is 122

Weekly close below 120 will take it to 117---114 mark else could touch its resistance level of 122 again

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 122 mark

Trade with levels only.













More will update soon!!

Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 21st June 17




Gold futures ended lower on Tuesday as the dollar rose following hawkish comments from an influential US Federal Reserve official and dovish remarks from the Bank of England governor. New York Fed President William Dudley said on Monday that labor market tightness should help drive up inflation, reinforcing the message that recent weak data was unlikely to derail plans to keep raising interest rates.    


Crude oil futures slumped to a seven-month low on Tuesday ahead of inventory data, and amid reports that Nigeria and Libya are ramping up production. The two most vulnerable OPEC nations are exempt from the cartel's supply quota deal with Russia. Libya is currently producing 902,000 barrels a day. It’s the North African country’s highest output in four years. Sentiment on oil remained negative for the second-consecutive session, as investors continued to doubt Opec and its allies’ efforts to rebalance supply and demand in the market in the wake of rising global output.

Copper futures ended lower on Tuesday as the US dollar was firmer after comments by a Federal Reserve official that boosted confidence in another US interest rate rise this year.



Technical Level



Gold 





Support at 28500 and Resistance 28650

Close below 28500 will take it to 28250---28080 mark else could touch its resistance level of 28650.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 28650




Silver




Support at 38000 and Resistance at 38450

Close below 38000 will take it to 37700---37400 and then to 36800 mark else could touch its resistance level of 38450 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 38450 mark.



Crude (July)




Support at 2780 and Resistance at 2830

Close below 2780 will take it to 2730---2690 markelse could touch its resistance level of 2830.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 2830



Natural Gas






Support at 186.00 and Resistance at 190


Close below 186.00 will take it to 182---178 mark else could touch its resistance level of 190 again

Fresh buying can be initiated above 190 mark.


Copper 





Support at 361 and Resistance at 368

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.



Economic Data



07:30 P.M Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m:  Previous 5.75M, Forecast 5.54M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Existing Home Sales Home Sales m/m - will have negative impact bullion and positive impact on base metals and dollar index vice – versa.


08:00 P.M Crude Oil Inventories:  Previous -1.7M, Forecast -1.2M, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Crude Oil Inventories – will have negative impact on crude oil prices vice versa.



















More will update soon!!

Agro Commodity Update (21-June-2017)




Fundamental Aspect


Refined soy oil futures traded sharply lower tracking weak cues from international market and higher domestic stocks. CBOT Soy oil posted the biggest percentage declines in the soy complex down by 2.4% at 32.02 cents per lb. Edible oil prices have increase over the week on anticipation that Government may increase import duty but government has no plans to raise import duty at this moment. Government increases the tariff value for crude soy oil for the second half of Jun by $1 to $812 per tonne. As per SEA, Import of soy oils during May 2017 is reported at 3.40 lt compared to 1.78 lt in May 2016 – up by 91% however, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from Nov-May to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22 lt last year for same period.


Turmeric futures traded higher on improving demand from upcountry buyers at the spot market. Moreover, reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas too fuelled the uptrend. This is second successive weekly gain due to rising physical demand coupled with diminishing supplies. However, the trend seems to be little sideways on reports of good rains in turmeric growing areas. There was lower demand all season from upcountry and industrial buyers. Turmeric arrivals in the country are higher in the month of May. As per the trader source, about 6,378 tonnes arrived last week compared to 11,942 tonnes during previous week. As per the spice board, increased global demand for turmeric, especially in the pharmaceutical sector, drove its exports to attain figures of 1, 16,500 tonnes in volume and crossed Rs 1,241 cr. in value terms in 2016-17.

Coriander futures edged down as participants cut down their bets, driven by weak demand in the spot market. Besides, rising supplies from major producing belts also weighed on coriander futures.

Guar complex traded with lower bias as developing favourable weather condition for further advancement of monsoon across India may weigh down on prices. Sowing is likely to commence in Haryana and will start in Rajasthan in starting weeks of next month. Market is running with adequate availability of guar stocks whereas higher planting prospects for upcoming season could keep prices under pressure. Moreover, prices may track cues from weakness in crude oil prices which may affect the overseas demand of guar gum adversely. India exported about 54392 MT of guar gum during month of April, 2017 higher by 134% of last year export of 23158 Mt for corresponding time.


Technical Aspect: (July Contract)



Guarseed







Our sell call of Guarseed from 3445 to 3330 proven great. 

Break and close below 3330 will see more downside panic in it.

Target looks 3270---3230.

Hurdle and revise stop loss of 3380

Trade with levels only.


Soyaref 






Our sell call from 635 to 627 proven great and made a low of 627.05.

What to expect???

Now support at 625. Break and close below 625 will see more downside panic till 618---613 and then to 605 mark.

Hurdle and revise stop loss of 635.

Trade with levels only.


Dhaniya 





Our buy call from 4800 to 5280 proven great.

Now what we expect???

Support is 4800 and resistance is 5150---5280.

We expect a bit correction from here towards 4800 and sustainable move below the same will drag down the prices towards 4600--- 4450 again.

Trade with levels only.


Jeera 




Our buy call from 18600 to 19300 proven great and made a high of 19230 on Monday.

Now what to expect???

We expect a bit correction from here towards 18300 and sustainable move below the same will drag down the prices towards 17950 and then 17600 mark.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 19000 only.

Trade with levels only


RM Seed 






Support seen at 3520 and resistance is at 3600.

Close below 3520 will take it to 3470---3440 mark else could touch its resistance level of 3600.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 3600.

Trade with levels only.


Cocudakl





Support 1650 and resistance at 1730

Either side decisive break or close will decide further.


Trade with levels only.


Mentha oil (June)






Hurdle at 935 and support at 910---886. 

Looks positive and buy on every decline till 910 will be consider as a buying opportunity. Close above 935 will take it to 951--- 958+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 886 mark


CPO (June)




Below 486... Panic remain continue till 480---476 and then to 470 mark

Hurdle at 490.50


Trade with levels only.












More will update soon!!