Updates on Bullion, Base Metals and Energy Levels 8th June 17

                        

Gold futures ended lower on Wednesday as the dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies and after a written testimony by a former FBI director to the US Senate was seen as containing few surprises. Though, some losses were capped as uncertainty from the UK election remained.

Crude oil futures slumped on Wednesday, after data showed that supplies of US crude rose for the first time in nine weeks, adding to concerns that rising US oil output would undermine Opec and its allies' efforts to curb supply. With refinery activity on wane and exports fading, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude inventories rose by 3.3 million barrels in the week ended June 2. Gasoline inventories, rose by 3.324m barrels, while distillate stockpiles unexpectedly rose by 4.4m barrels. Also, overseas, tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia threaten to kill OPEC's supply quota plan that has thus far kept oil above $45 in 2017.

Comex copper futures ended marginally higher on Wednesday, while London copper prices too rose after three days of declines as investors judged that a sell-off had run its course despite weaker than expected German manufacturing data that pointed to lower demand.

Technical Level

Gold 

Support at 29250---29100 and Resistance at 29500---29600

We will expect high volatility in evening session. So trade safely with levels only. 

Anything seems will update.

Silver

Support at 40400 and Resistance at 40800

Close below 40400 will take it to 40050—39800 mark in days to come else could touch its resistance level of 40800 again

Trade with levels only.

Crude 

Below 3025... Panic remain continue till 2880---2830 mark

Any sharp rise will be selling opportunity with stop loss of 3130 on closing basis.

Our ultimate target you all know very well i.e. 2696

Natural Gas

Support at 193 and Resistance at 200

  

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Copper 

Support at 364---362.50 and Resistance at 370

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Economic Data

06:00 P.M ECB Press Conference

06:00 P.M Unemployment Claim:  Previous 248K Forecast 241K, Actual –??

Impact – Increase in Unemployment Claims – will have positive impact on bullion and negative impact on base metals and dollar index or vice – versa.

08:00 P.M Natural Gas Storage:  Previous 81B, Forecast 99B, Actual –??

Impact – Increase Natural Gas Storage – will have negative impact on natural gas prices or vice versa.

More will update soon!!

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HDIL fails to repay loan, Central Bank of India seizes its Kurla property

Real estate firm HDIL owes Rs 144 crore loan amount to Central Bank of India. It failed to repay, and the bank has taken symbolic possession of its property in Kurla West. While the bank says it is carrying out the procedures required under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002, HDIL has called it a technical default. The bank issued a public notice on June 1, asking HDIL to pay the loan amount.

At one point of time, HDIL ruled the real estate industry. The exact amount the bank claims from the real estate firm is Rs 1,44,25,44,651.

The notice (a copy available with DNA) reads, "The borrowers/guarantors, have failed to repay the amount, notice is hereby given to the borrowers and public in general that the undersigned has taken symbolic possessions of the assets on June 1, 2017."

The notice further reads, "The borrower or guarantors, and public, in general, is hereby cautioned not to deal with the property and any dealing with the properties will be subject to the charge of Central Bank of India."

The property that the bank has taken symbolic possession of is a 10-acre portion of 'all pieces and parcels of land and premises admeasuring 2.13 lakh square metres', situated at Premier Road, of LBS Marg, Kurla West.

More will update soon!!

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Agro Commodity Update (08-June-2017)

Fundamental Aspect

Soybean futures continue to trade higher due to severe reduction of arrivals in the physical markets in Madhya Pradesh due to agitation by the farmers. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 7 days of June dropped by 78% to 16,850 tonnes as compared to 60,729 noted in the last week of May. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs 20,000 ha year ago. Sowing is yet to commence in some key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the oilseed is typically sown after the first monsoon showers. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. As per the USDA report, US soybeans is planted almost 83% vs. 67% noted in the earlier week. CFTC indicated that the traders added another 26,955 contracts to their net short position in the week ending May 30.

Jeera futures traded up on rising domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17. Further, the jeera arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year too fuelled the uptrend. Reports showed about 10,688 tons of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse are dropping since last 10-15 days. It now 1,113 tonnes as on Jun 06, fall from 1,833 tonnes two weeks back. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,601 tonnes.

Government’s wheat procurement has touched 30.1 million tonnes (MT) so far in the ongoing rabi 2017-18 MY, crossing the last year’s total purchase of 22.9 MT. About 11.7 MT of wheat has been procured from Punjab, 7.4 MT from Haryana, 6.72 MT from Madhya Pradesh, 3 MT from Uttar Pradesh and 1.17 MT from Rajasthan so far this marketing year. The wheat marketing year normally runs from April to March. But the procurement this year was undertaken a fortnight early by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as well as state agencies. The government procures wheat from farmers at the minimum support price (MSP). The government has set a procurement target of 33 MT for 2017-18 on the back of record output. Further, wheat production target is kept at a record 97.44 MT for 2016-17 crop year, much higher than the actual output of 93.50 MT last year.

Mentha oil futures traded lower as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity on diminishing demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.

Technical Aspect: (July Contract)

Soybean

Our Buy call from 2770 to 2850 proven great and made a high of 2862 today.

What to expect???

Close above 2865... Rally remain continue till 2930---2980 and then 3050+++ mark 

Fresh selling can be initiated below 2750

Soyaref 

Ou buy call from 619 to 632 proven great and made a high of 632.40 today.

What to expect???

Support at 625 and resistance of 635 

 Break and close above 635 will take 642---645+++ mark else could touch its support level of 625 again.

Trade with levels only.

Dhaniya 

Support at 4650. Weekly close below 4650 will take to 4300---4200 and then to 3980 mark.

Hurdle at 4800---5000

Fresh buying can be seen only above 5000.

Trade with levels only.

Jeera 

Support is 17950 and resistance is at 18600

Close above 18600 will take it to 19000---19300 and then to 19700 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17950 again.

Fresh selling can be seen below 17950.

Trade with levels only.

RM Seed 

Support at 3520 and Resistance 3610

Weekly close above 3610 will take it to 3650—3680 and then to 3730+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3520

Fresh selling can be initiated below 3520

Trade with levels only.

Turmeric

Unable to breach its resistance level of 5520 and slipped.

Now what to expect??

Support at 5300 and Resistance at 5520.

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

Cocudakl

Support 1650 and resistance at 1690.

Break and Sustain above 1690 will take it to 1730—1750 and then to 1800++ mark else could touch its support level of 1650.

Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1650.

Trade with levels only.

Mentha oil (June)

Hurdle at 910 and support at 886. 

Close above 910 will see sharp upside rally till 932---938 and then to 970 mark

Fresh selling will do only close below 886

CPO (June)

Support at 488.50 and Resistance at 496

Looks weak and close below 488.50 will take it to 482 and then 476 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 496.

Fresh buying can be initiated only above 496.

Trade with levels only

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 8th June 2017

Rupee strengthens against the US dollar on Wednesday

Indian rupee strengthened against US dollar on Wednesday, as Reserve Bank of India (RBI) used a less hawkish tone and reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy for financial year 2017-18. The central bank left repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 6.25% and 6%, respectively and lowered its inflation estimates for the current financial year. Sentiments also got some support after the Met Department upgraded the South-West monsoon forecast to 98% of the long-term average rainfall from 96% earlier. Rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is expected to be normal, with a high possibility of all four broad geographical regions receiving evenly distributed rains. Moreover, positive momentum in the domestic equities and continuous foreign capital inflows too supported the rupee. On the global front, dollar jumped against the euro following reports that the European Central Bank is preparing to cut its inflation forecast.

USDINR (June)

Support at 64.55---64.30 and resistance at 64.80.

Either side break or close with volume will decide further.

GBP-INR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.60

Above 83.60 rally remain continue till 83.75—83.90 and then to 84.10++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 83.10 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 83.10.

EURINR

Support at 72.50 and Hurdle at 72.80

Trading in range either side break or close with volume will decide further.

JPYINR

Below 58.80 panic remain continue till 58.60—58.45 and then to 58.10 mark, else could touch its resistance level of 59.10 again.

Fresh buying can be initiated above 59.10 mark.

More will update soon!!

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Update on Nifty levels, Bank Nifty levels and Equity Pick of the day 8th June 2017

Nifty 9,663/Sensex 31,271/ Bank Nifty 23,567

37 Advances / 14 Declines/ 0 Unchanged

Indian benchmarks end higher; RBI keeps key interest rate unchanged 

Indian equity indices concluded the season on a positive note on Wednesday, as investor turned optimistic after Reserve Bank of India (RBI) used a less hawkish tone and reduced the Statutory Liquidity Ratio (SLR) in its second bi-monthly monetary policy for financial year 2017-18. The slashed in SLR or the percentage of deposits that banks have to park in government securities by 0.5% to 20% will allow banks to increased lending. RBI left repo and reverse repo rates unchanged at 6.25% and 6%, respectively and lowered its inflation estimates for the current financial year. The central bank, however, raised concerns over the possibility of fiscal slippages due to the farm loan waivers. RBI also cut the economic growth projection to 7.3% for the current fiscal from 7.4% earlier. With the UK elections, the European Central Bank's (ECB) policy meeting, and former FBI director James Comey's Senate testimony all set for Thursday, investors were noticeably risk averse across the globe.

Sentiments got some support after the Met Department has upgraded the South-West monsoon forecast to 98% of the long-term average rainfall from 96% earlier. Rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is expected to be normal, with a high possibility of all four broad geographical regions receiving evenly distributed rains. Some support also came with NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant's statement that the Goods and Services Tax, to be rolled out next month as the biggest tax reform since independence, will help India achieve 9% growth rate. He said GST will simplify India's taxation system and help deal with tax evasion. Meanwhile, many banking stocks gained traction on hopes of early resolution to stressed assets issue and recapitalization of PSUs. The Reserve Bank of India said it would continue to work in partnership with the government to address the stress in banks' balance sheets.

On the global front, Asian equity markets made a mixed closing on Wednesday, as traders preferred to remain on the sidelines ahead of several major political and economic events later this week. These include the UK elections, the ECB policy meeting and former FBI Director James Comey's congressional testimony. However, China stocks rose as a growing number of listed firms encouraged employees to buy shares, and as the central bank injected more funds into the banking system to ease fears of a mid-year liquidity crunch. Meanwhile, European counterparts were trading in the positive territory though with marginal gains with France's CAC being the top gainer in the space.

Back home, after trading in cautious note for most part of the session, the local benchmarks ended the trading day with moderate gains. The NSE's 50-share broadly followed index Nifty got buttressed by over quarter percent to settle above the crucial 9,650 support level, while Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensitive Index-Sensex accumulated over eighty points and closed above the psychological 31,250 mark. Moreover, the broader markets managed a touch better than the larger peers today as the BSE's midcap and small cap indices settled with gains of 0.46% and 0.75% respectively. The market breadth remained optimistic, as there were 1466 shares on the gaining side against 1188 shares on the losing side, while 149 shares remained unchanged.

 FII’s Activity 07-June-17

The FIIs as per Wednesday’s data were net sellers in equity segment, while they were net buyers in debt segment, according to data released by the NSDL.

In equity segment, the gross buying was of Rs 4094.77 crore against gross selling of Rs 7228.40 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net sellers of Rs 3133.63 crore in equities.

In the debt segment, the gross purchase was of Rs 1649.11 crore with gross sales of Rs 861.37 crore. Thus, FIIs stood as net buyers of Rs 787.74 crore in debt.

Now what to expect??

Nifty Levels

Support at 9580 and resistance at 9735.

Above 9680 will see upside rally till 9735 mark. More and more power will see only close above 9735 else it could test its support level of 9580 again.

Trade in a range with levels only.

Bank Nifty Levels

Support at 23400 and resistance at 23640

Above 23640 will see further upside rally till 23700---23750 mark.

More upside rally will see only close above 23750 level else it could test its support level of 23400 again.

Ex-Dividend Today

Bosch Limited Rs 90/- Per share

BPCL Rs 1/- Per share

Torrent Power Limited Rs 1/- Per share

Aurobindo Pharma Rs 1.25/- Per share

More will update soon!!

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Currency Report 7th June 2017

Rupee snaps four-day gaining streak

Snapping its four-day winning streak, Indian rupee ended marginally weaker against dollar on Tuesday, due to demand for greenback by banks and importers. Traders remained on sidelines ahead of Reserve Bank of India (RBI) interest rate decision tomorrow. The street is expecting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to turn dovish and to be open for a 25 bps cut in interest rates on August 2 if rains are normal. Investors shrugged off the report that India has surpassed China to secure the top position among 30 developing countries on ease of doing business. The rupee sentiment was also hit due a weak domestic equity market. On the global front, dollar fell below the 110 level against the yen on Tuesday, hitting a one-and-a-half month low as investor jitters over looming geopolitical risk events underpinned safe haven demand.

USDINR

Support at 64.55---64.30 and resistance at 64.80.

Either side break or close with volume will decide further.

GBPINR

Support at 83.10 and Resistance at 83.60

Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.

EURINR

Support at 72.50 and Hurdle at 72.80

Above 72.80 rally remain continue till 73.00---73.10 and then to 73.30 mark.

Fresh selling can be initiated below 72.50 mark.

JPYINR

Above 59.12 rally remain continue till 59.30---59.50 and then to 59.70+++ mark

Fresh selling can be initiated below 58.80 mark.

More will update soon!!

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