Fundamental Aspect
Soybean futures continue to trade higher due to severe reduction of arrivals in the physical markets in Madhya Pradesh due to agitation by the farmers. As per the trader source, arrivals of soybean during the first 7 days of June dropped by 78% to 16,850 tonnes as compared to 60,729 noted in the last week of May. India’s soybean sowing for the current kharif reached 23,000 ha so far vs 20,000 ha year ago. Sowing is yet to commence in some key growing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Andhra Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, as the oilseed is typically sown after the first monsoon showers. India's oilseeds industry body has cut its soymeal export forecast by 25% from its previous outlook on appreciating rupee and a correction in global prices make Indian supplies uncompetitive. As per the USDA report, US soybeans is planted almost 83% vs. 67% noted in the earlier week. CFTC indicated that the traders added another 26,955 contracts to their net short position in the week ending May 30.
Jeera futures traded up on rising domestic as well as exports demand at the spot market. On the export front, country the exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in 2016-17. Further, the jeera arrival in May is lower this year compared to last year too fuelled the uptrend. Reports showed about 10,688 tons of jeera arrived in May 2017 compared to 14,302 May last year. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse are dropping since last 10-15 days. It now 1,113 tonnes as on Jun 06, fall from 1,833 tonnes two weeks back. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,601 tonnes.
Government’s wheat procurement has touched 30.1 million tonnes (MT) so far in the ongoing rabi 2017-18 MY, crossing the last year’s total purchase of 22.9 MT. About 11.7 MT of wheat has been procured from Punjab, 7.4 MT from Haryana, 6.72 MT from Madhya Pradesh, 3 MT from Uttar Pradesh and 1.17 MT from Rajasthan so far this marketing year. The wheat marketing year normally runs from April to March. But the procurement this year was undertaken a fortnight early by the Food Corporation of India (FCI) as well as state agencies. The government procures wheat from farmers at the minimum support price (MSP). The government has set a procurement target of 33 MT for 2017-18 on the back of record output. Further, wheat production target is kept at a record 97.44 MT for 2016-17 crop year, much higher than the actual output of 93.50 MT last year.
Mentha oil futures traded lower as investors and speculators exited their positions in the agro-commodity on diminishing demand from major consuming industries in the domestic spot market. Further, ample stocks position on higher supplies from producing belts of Chandausi in Uttar Pradesh, too influenced mentha oil prices.
Technical Aspect: (July Contract)
Soybean
Our Buy call from 2770 to 2850 proven great and made a high of 2862 today.
What to expect???
Close above 2865... Rally remain continue till 2930---2980 and then 3050+++ mark
Fresh selling can be initiated below 2750
Soyaref
Ou buy call from 619 to 632 proven great and made a high of 632.40 today.
What to expect???
Support at 625 and resistance of 635
Break and close above 635 will take 642---645+++ mark else could touch its support level of 625 again.
Trade with levels only.
Dhaniya
Support at 4650. Weekly close below 4650 will take to 4300---4200 and then to 3980 mark.
Hurdle at 4800---5000
Fresh buying can be seen only above 5000.
Trade with levels only.
Jeera
Support is 17950 and resistance is at 18600
Close above 18600 will take it to 19000---19300 and then to 19700 mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 17950 again.
Fresh selling can be seen below 17950.
Trade with levels only.
RM Seed
Support at 3520 and Resistance 3610
Weekly close above 3610 will take it to 3650—3680 and then to 3730+++ mark in days to come else could touch its support level of 3520
Fresh selling can be initiated below 3520
Trade with levels only.
Turmeric
Unable to breach its resistance level of 5520 and slipped.
Now what to expect??
Support at 5300 and Resistance at 5520.
Trading in range either side breakout with volumes will decide further.
Cocudakl
Support 1650 and resistance at 1690.
Break and Sustain above 1690 will take it to 1730—1750 and then to 1800++ mark else could touch its support level of 1650.
Fresh selling can be initiated only below 1650.
Trade with levels only.
Mentha oil (June)
Hurdle at 910 and support at 886.
Close above 910 will see sharp upside rally till 932---938 and then to 970 mark
Fresh selling will do only close below 886
CPO (June)
Support at 488.50 and Resistance at 496
Looks weak and close below 488.50 will take it to 482 and then 476 mark in near term else could touch its resistance level of 496.
Fresh buying can be initiated only above 496.
Trade with levels only
More will update soon!!
